27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Recent updates to SHIPS-MI

Thomas A. Jones, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil

Several improvements have been made to a version of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme using passive microwave imager data (SHIPS-MI) in preparation for operational testing. The most significant is the expansion of the training sample back to 1988 using archived SSM/I data and the addition of tropical cyclones from the 2004 season to the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific models. The expanded training samples improve comparability with the current operational SHIPS model as well as increase sample size to the point where five day SHIPS-MI forecast models are now possible. Forecast resolution has been improved from 12 hourly to 6 hourly using the latest SHIPS developmental file. The new SHIPS-MI models are generally superior to their older counterparts in terms of mean absolute error. The larger sample size increases confidence that improvement over non-microwave models is statistically significant. Using the new regression coefficients from this expanded 1988-2004 training sample, SHIPS-MI forecasts for the entire 2005 tropical cyclone season will be re-computed. These forecasts (using operational inputs) will be compared against various operational forecasts to test SHIPS-MI in a quasi-operational environment prior to more formal testing in the 2006 hurricane season.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (276K)

Session 14A, Tropical Cyclone Prediction VI - Intensity
Thursday, 27 April 2006, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Regency Grand BR 4-6

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