Hurricane genesis study using WRF

The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season is characterized for being one of the most intense and active seasons since 1950, with 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Nine of these systems made landfall along the United States coastline, with the state of Florida enduring one tropical storm and four hurricanes; from which three of these were characterized as major hurricanes. The first eight strikes, including all five Florida strikes, occurred during the months of August and September, corresponding to the African easterly wave's (AEWs) most active period. Hurricane Ivan (the strongest of the season), Frances and Danielle were some of the hurricanes that evolved from the AEWs, reaching intensities of category 5 (three times), 4 and 2 respectively. These hurricanes were responsible for significant loses and many deaths in the United States, and the Caribbean with the exception of hurricane Danielle that remained over the open waters of eastern Atlantic Ocean and there were no damage associated to it.

In this work, the cyclogenesis process of these three hurricanes which developed from the AEWs is studied using the NCAR Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Initial and boundary conditions are obtained from NCEP final GFS analysis. The domain extension will cover from 45º W to 15º E and from 3ºN to 30ºN with a resolution of 20 km. In addition to the model output data, NCEP re-analysis, Meteosat satellite images, TRMM precipitation data, and resources from the National Hurricane Center archive will be used to study the factors that influenced the cyclogenesis process of the above mentioned systems. A preliminary analysis of hurricane Danielle shows that ARW model can capture the cyclogenesis process. Additional simulations will be presented at the meeting.