27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

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Sunday, 23 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 23 April 2006


Sun 23 April

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 April 2006


Conference Registration

Monday, 24 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Monday 24 April

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Conference Registration continues Through Friday 28 April

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 1B
Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii
8:00 AM
1B.2
Potential vorticity rings and eye subsidence
Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, C. M. Rozoff, B. D. McNoldy, J. P. Kossin, and S. R. Fulton
8:15 AM
1B.3
Interactions between simulated tropical cyclones and an environment with a variable coriolis parameter
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and W. M. Frank
8:30 AM
1B.4
Phase space-based evaluation of numerical forecasts of cyclone structure evolution
Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott and F. Chiaromonte
8:45 AM
1B.5
Energetics of idealized hurricane-like vortices
Young C. Kwon, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank
9:00 AM
1B.6
Formation of the Hurricane Eye
Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
9:15 AM
1B.7
A Study of Current Data Sets for Outer Wind Radii
Adam Moyer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans
9:30 AM
1B.8
Objective identification of annular hurricanes using GOES and reanalysis data
Thomas A. Cram, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, and J. P. Kossin

Session 1C
Tropical Cyclones and Climate I - Theory and Modeling
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
8:00 AM
1C.1
The 80 cyclones myth
William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young
8:45 AM
1C.4
Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km–mesh global atmospheric model
Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda
9:00 AM
1C.5
Objective detection of tropical cyclones in climate models
Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and M. Fiorino, C. W. Landsea, and K. McInnes
9:15 AM
1C.6
9:30 AM
1C.7
Hurricane-ocean interactions during warm climates
Robert Korty, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
9:45 AM
1C.8
Could hurricanes form from random convection in a warmer world?
David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and E. D. Rappin and K. A. Emanuel

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 1A
Special Session: Results from the NASA TCSP Experiment
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: S. D. Aberson, Hurricane Research Division, AOML
8:00 AM
1A.1
Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment
Robbie E. Hood, NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems Program, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. Kakar, J. Halverson, R. Rogers, and M. Black
8:15 AM
1A.2
The Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): A NOAA multi-year field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasting
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, R. E. Hood, J. B. Halverson, E. J. Zipser, and G. M. Heymsfield
8:30 AM
1A.3
Tropical cyclogenesis observations from the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment
Kevin J. Mallen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. A. Braun
8:45 AM
1A.4
9:15 AM
1A.6
Investigations of a convective burst in intensifying tropical storm Gert during TCSP
J. B. Halverson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Hennon, G. M. Heymsfield, M. Black, and R. Rogers

9:30 AM
1A.7
Intense Convective Burst Observed From Hurricane Emily (2005) During TCSP
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. R. Belcher, L. Li, L. Tian, and J. B. Halverson


Session 1D
Intraseasonal Variability I
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii
8:00 AM
1D.1
The initiation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Pallav K. Ray, MPO/RSMAS, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL
8:15 AM
1D.2
Simulations of linear responses to Madden-Julian oscillation heatings
Zhe Feng, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and P. T. Haertel
8:30 AM
1D.3
Potential Vorticity Aspects of the MJO
Matthew T. Masarik, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert
8:45 AM
1D.4
A New Multiscale Model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Andrew Majda, New York Univ., New York, NY; and J. Biello

9:00 AM
1D.5
9:15 AM
1D.6
Evaluating theories of convectively-coupled equatorial waves using observations of 2-day waves
Patrick T. Haertel, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and Z. Feng
9:30 AM
1D.7
The MJO problem in GCMs: What are the missing physics?
Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 2A
The 2005 Atlantic season
Location: Cypress (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center
10:30 AM
2A.1
10:45 AM
2A.2
Precursor climate aspects of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. D. Bell and R. J. Pasch
11:00 AM
2A.3
On the record 2005 hurricane season
Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
11:30 AM
2A.5
Evaluation of WRF-ARW high-resolution tropical storm forecasts in 2005 season
Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Klemp, G. Holland, and M. DeMaria
11:45 AM
2A.6
Katrina, Rita and Wilma: Met Office model forecasts
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Greed

Session 2B
Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: William M. Frank, Penn State University
10:30 AM
2B.1
10:45 AM
2B.2
THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OBSERVED BY MULTIPLE RADARS
Qingyun Zhao, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California; and Y. Jin
11:00 AM
2B.3
Modeled secondary eyewall and spiral band dynamics
Wesley D. Terwey, University of South Alabama, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
11:15 AM
2B.4
Evaluation of WindSat ocean vector wind retrievals in tropical cyclones
Ian Stuart Adams, NRL, Washington, DC; and Z. Jelenak, C. C. Hennon, and W. L. Jones

11:30 AM
2B.5
Performance evaluation of rain-corrected scatterometer winds in tropical cyclones
Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and K. Hilburn and F. J. Wentz
11:45 AM
2B.6

Session 2C
Tropical Cyclones and Climate II - Extracting Signals from the Data
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL
10:30 AM
2C.1
On the importance of reviewing historical tropical cyclone intensities
Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia; and J. Callaghan
10:45 AM
2C.2
Deconvolution of natural internal variability and trends in the SST signal for the analysis of the increase of hurricane intensity
Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, and G. J. Holland
11:00 AM
2C.3
On the variability of tropical cyclones and category shifts
L. J. Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Karl, D. A. Dickey, L. Xie, T. Yan, S. Bao, and M. Peng

11:15 AM
2C.4
Annual Analyses of Basin and Hemispheric Tropical Cyclones Indices
David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. H. Lawrimore, B. Gleason, and T. W. R. Wallis
11:45 AM
2C.6
The Impact of Climate Change on Northwest Atlantic Extratropical Hurricanes and Winter Storms
William Perrie, Bedford Insitute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and J. Jiang and Z. Long

Session 2D
Intraseasonal Variability II
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chidong Zhang, University of Miami/RSMAS
10:30 AM
2D.1
New modeling evidence of the MJO influence on ENSO
Javier Zavala-Garay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
10:45 AM
2D.2
Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship
Harry Hendon, BMRC, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. C. Wheeler and C. Zhang
11:00 AM
2D.3
Intraseasonal Kelvin waves and their relation with El Nino development
Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO

11:15 AM
2D.4
Adjustment of the remote tropical climate system to El Niño conditions
Benjamin R. Lintner, Rutgers University, Rutgers, NJ; and J. C. H. Chiang

11:30 AM
2D.5
The role of equatorial Rossby waves in westerly wind bursts
Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis
11:45 AM
2D.6
Interaction of the South Asian and West African monsoons on intraseasonal to multidecadal timescales
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 3C
Air-Sea Interaction I
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
1:30 PM
3C.1
The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Chiaying Lee, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. C. Wu
1:45 PM
3C.2
Super cyclone boosters in the northwest Pacific Ocean
I.-I. Lin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and I. F. Pun
2:00 PM
3C.3
Loop Current Interactions to Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
Lynn K. Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn
2:15 PM
3C.4
Influence of the Loop Current ocean heat content on hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma
Benjamin Jaimes, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, T. M. Cook, J. Brewster, G. R. Halliwell Jr., and P. G. Black
2:30 PM
3C.6
Improving Ocean State Initialization in Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models
George R. Halliwell Jr., Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. D. Jacob, and O. M. Smedstad

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 3A
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones I
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sarah Jones, Universität Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
1:45 PM
3A.2
The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison
Michael Dickinson, Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc., Narragansett, RI; and L. F. Bosart and K. L. Corbosiero
2:30 PM
3A.5
The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: idealised modelling study
Michael Riemer, Universität Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
2:45 PM
3A.6
Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds, and R. H. Langland

Session 3B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul D. Reasor, NOAA Hurricane Research Division
1:45 PM
3B.2
Phenomenological analysis of forces in hurricane dynamics
Robert A. Dickerson, Independent Engineering Consultant, Zephyr Cove, Nevada
2:00 PM
3B.3
Effects of Baroclinicity and Different Initial Asymmetries on Vortex Axisymmetrization
Jiayi Peng, Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD 20746, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Peng and T. Li
2:15 PM
3B.4
A transfer function model to predict hurricane intensity
Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro


Session 3D
Intraseasonal Variability III
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.
1:30 PM
3D.1
2:00 PM
3D.3
A composite study of sub-monthly circulation features over East Asian monsoon area during late summer
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu
2:15 PM
3D.4
2:30 PM
3D.5
Simulation of the northward propagation of the 30-60 day oscillation by ECHAM T42 and T106
Chih-Hua Tsou, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Chen and C. T. Chen
2:45 PM
3D.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 4C
Tropical Cyclones and Climate III - Trends
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS
3:30 PM
4C.1
Global warming and hurricanes
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
3:59 PM
4C.3
Paper 4C.3 moved to poster session 5. New Paper number P5.25

4:00 PM
4C.4
4:15 PM
4C.5
Increasing Atlantic hurricane activity in prospect from global warming
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea

4:30 PM
4C.6
Leading Tropical Mode Associated with Increased Atlantic Hurricane Activity since 1995
Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Session 4A
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones II
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Patrick Harr, NPS
3:30 PM
4A.1
Characteristics of North Atlantic subtropical storms
Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA
3:45 PM
4A.2
Numerical modeling of Atlantic hurricanes moving into the middle latitudes
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and R. Greatbatch and H. Ritchie
4:00 PM
4A.3
Dynamical structures and precipitation distributions of transitioning tropical cyclones in Eastern Canada, 1979-2004
Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum
4:30 PM
4A.5
Sensitivity of ensemble forecasts of extratropical transition to initial perturbations targeted on the tropical cyclone
Doris Anwender, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Leutbecher, S. Jones, and P. Harr
5:00 PM
4A.7
5:15 PM
4A.8
Evolution and global impacts of a diabatically-generated warm pool: Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Ron McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah

Session 4B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR
3:30 PM
4B.1
Tropical Cyclone Response to Time Depandant, Axially Symmetric Heating
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL
4:00 PM
4B.3
Inner Core Structure and Intensity Change in Hurricane Isabel (2003)
Peter J. Kozich, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

4:30 PM
4B.5
Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity algorithm
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden
4:45 PM
4B.6
The evolution of low-wavenumber vorticity during rapid intensification: A dual-Doppler analysis
Matthew D. Eastin, Central College, Pella, IA; and P. D. Reasor, D. S. Nolan, F. D. Marks Jr., and J. F. Gamache
5:00 PM
4B.7
An Evaluation of the Microphysics Fields of Hurricane Dennis (2005) at Different Stages of Its Lifecycle
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, P. Willis, R. Black, A. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, and G. Heymsfield
5:15 PM
4B.8
The rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo (1997) as viewed with GPS dropwindsondes
Matthew Sitkowski, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Dolling and G. Barnes

Session 4D
Africa Weather and Climate
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL
3:30 PM
4D.1
Easterly wave diagnostics
Gareth J. Berry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and T. Hewson
3:45 PM
4D.2
The role of Kelvin wave activity on convection and rainfall over tropical Africa
Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A & T State University, New York, NC
4:00 PM
4D.3
Subseasonal rainfall variability in the tropical eastern Atlantic-West African region
Guojun Gu, NASA/GSFC and ESSIC, Univ. of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Adler
4:15 PM
4D.4
African aerosol and precipitation in the Atlantic ITCZ
Xiaoyu Liu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
4:45 PM
4D.6
Robust response of Sahel precipitation to late 20th century forcings: natural or anthropogenic?
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. Giannini

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 April 2006


Ice Breaker Reception (Peninsula Restaurant Terrace)

Tuesday, 25 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Tue 25 April

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Session 5B
Tropical Cyclone Database
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR
8:00 AM
5B.1
The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and S. E. Feuer, D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis, J. F. Gamache, C. J. Mock, R. Perez, J. D. Sims, and L. Woolcock
8:15 AM
5B.2
The Reasons for a Reanalysis of the Typhoons Intensity in the western North Pacific
Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and L. Chalonge and J. P. Hoarau
8:30 AM
5B.3
The urgent need for a re-analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclones
Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. Guard
8:45 AM
5B.4
9:00 AM
5B.5
Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987
John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson
9:15 AM
5B.6
The re-analysis of Hurricane Connie August 12, 1955 and Ione September 19,1955
Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
9:30 AM
5B.7

Session 5C
Air-Sea Interaction II
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
8:00 AM
5C.1
8:15 AM
5C.2
The Effects of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using an Idealized Model
Jeffrey S. Gall, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Y. C. Kwon and W. Frank
8:30 AM
5C.3
Numerical study on impacts of the wet land boundary layer fluxes on the sustention of typhoon Nina and its rainfall
Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and L. Chen
9:00 AM
5C.5
The Effect of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer
Jun Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Key Bisayne, FL; and W. M. Drennan, S. Lehner, K. B. Katsaros, and P. G. Black
9:15 AM
5C.6
Mechanical energy and vorticity balances within the OML under tropical cyclones
Eric W. Uhlhorn, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
9:45 AM
5C.8

Session 5D
Monsoons I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John Molinari, Univ. at Albany/SUNY
8:00 AM
5D.1
Seasonality in the predictability of Indonesian monsoonal climate
Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY
8:15 AM
5D.2
8:45 AM
5D.4
The first transition of the Asian summer monsoon, intraseasonal oscillation, and Taiwan Meiyu
Chih-wen Hung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu
9:00 AM
5D.5
9:15 AM
5D.6
Interaction between South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon
Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki
9:30 AM
5D.7
Relationship between Amazon and High Andes rainfall
Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook
9:45 AM
5D.8
Using information content of coupled climate model simulations to generate multimodel projections of monsoon variability
Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and D. C. Collins and P. Webster

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Session 5A
RIsk Management
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama
8:15 AM
5A.2
8:45 AM
5A.4
Event Response Activities for the Near-Real Time Assessment of Financial Losses in Landfalling Hurricanes
Richard Dixon, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and A. Boissonnade, T. Krebs, and A. O'Shay
9:00 AM
5A.5
9:15 AM
5A.6
Stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track data
Jonas Rumpf, University of Ulm, Ulm, Germany; and E. Rauch, V. Schmidt, and H. Weindl
9:30 AM
5A.7
Gust factors in hurricane and non-hurricane conditions
Craig Miller, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
9:45 AM
5A.8
Correlation of topographic speed-up factors and building damage ratios for Hurricane Fabian in Bermuda
Kimberly J. Mueller, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and C. Miller, K. Beatty, and A. Boissonnade

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Session 6A
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones III
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jenni L. Evans, The Pennsylvania State University
10:45 AM
6A.2
11:00 AM
6A.3
A Study on the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Xangsane (2000)
C-S. Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Lu
11:15 AM
6A.4
Asymmetric structure and maintenance in Hurricane Juan
Weiqing Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie
11:45 AM
6A.6
The overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Danny (1997)
Nick P. Bassill, University of SUNY, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. C. Morgan

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Session 6C
Air-sea Interaction III
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ.
10:30 AM
6C.1
Development of a coupled hurricane-wave-ocean model toward improving air-sea flux parameterization in high wind conditions
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, B. Thomas, T. Hara, H. L. Tolman, and M. A. Bender
10:45 AM
6C.2
Evaluation of Upper Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for use in Coupled Models
S. Daniel Jacob, GEST, Univ. of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Le Vine, L. K. Shay, G. R. Halliwell, C. Lozano, and A. Mehra
11:00 AM
6C.3
Oceanic Heat Content Variability in Eastern Pacific Ocean
Jodi K. Brewster, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
11:15 AM
6C.4
Using AXBTs to improve the performance of coupled hurricane-ocean models
Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis, E. W. Uhlhorn, and A. Falkovich
11:30 AM
6C.5
11:45 AM
6C.6
Local and non-local response of the Straits of Florida to tropical cyclones during 1999-2005
Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. E. Dodge, T. Gustafson, M. E. Luther, and R. H. Weisberg

Session 6D
Monsoons II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology
10:30 AM
6D.1
A new conceptual model for the meridional circulation of the West African monsoon
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. Woodworth
10:45 AM
6D.2
The onset of the West African monsoon: A numerical study
Samson M. Hagos, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York; and K. H. Cook
11:00 AM
6D.3
11:15 AM
6D.4
Rainfall types and associated vertical stability-shear weather regimes during the 2002 West African monsoon season
Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and V. Ermert and D. G. Vincent
11:30 AM
6D.5

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Session 6B
Tropical Cyclone Structure III - Eyewall Dynamics
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
10:30 AM
6B.1
Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall configurations
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston, T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. Richardson, C. Sampson, J. Kent, and R. Wade
10:45 AM
6B.2
Vortex interactions and the barotropic aspects of concentric eyewall formation
H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. H. Schubert
11:00 AM
6B.3
Inner core convective asymmetries and vortex Rossby waves in Atlantic basin tropical cyclones
Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. L. Black, A. R. Aiyyer, and J. Molinari
11:15 AM
6B.4
The dynamics of the eyewall evolution in a landfalling typhoon
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Cheng
11:30 AM
6B.5
A new pathway to polygonal eyewalls and asymmetric eyewall contraction
Pedro J. Mulero, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin
11:45 AM
6B.6
Concentric eyewall simulated in a fully compressible, nonhydrostatic, multiply nested, movable mesh tropical cyclone model (TCM4)
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
12:00 PM
6B.7
The formation of concentric eyewall in hurricane Floyd (1999)
M. K. Yau, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Chen and M. T. Montgomery

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Formal Poster viewing with Coffee Break

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Poster Session 1
Precipitation/Storm Surge/Flooding
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P1.1
Effect of convective entrainment/detrainment on simulation of tropical precipitation diurnal cycle: A regional model sensitivity study
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. Zhou and K. Hamilton

P1.3
Precipitation response to environmental forcing in tropical cyclones
Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama in Huntsville, huntsville, AL

P1.4
Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Severe Storms (Hurricanes & Tornados)
Nasim Nourozi, NOAA-CREST/CUNY, New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi

P1.5
Evaluation of Satellite-Based Estimates of Precipitation In the Yucatan Region During Hurricane Wilma
F. J. Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. J. Huffman, R. J. Joyce, C. Kidd, and R. Kuligowski

Handout (2.4 MB)


Poster Session 2
The North American Monsoon
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P2.1
Intercomparison of Diurnal Variability of Rainfall Retrieved from PERSIANN-CCS and NAME NERN Gage Measurements in North American Monsoon (NAM) area
Jiangtao Cheng, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Hong, X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian

P2.2
Diurnal cycle of sea surface winds and temperatures during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment
Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski and R. H. Johnson

Handout (2.2 MB)

P2.4
The impact of tropical cyclone remnants on the rainfall of the North American southwest region
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and D. Szenasi

Handout (262.4 kB)

P2.5
On the Relationship Between Horizontal Organization of Precipitating Systems, Easterly Waves and Gulf Surges
Gustavo Pereira, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

P2.6
Interannual variability of near-coastal eastern Pacific tropical cyclones
David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie, A. V. Douglas, and M. D. Lewis

Handout (111.9 kB)


Poster Session 3
Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P3.2
What is the trigger for tropical cyclogenesis?
David S. Nolan, Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL

P3.3
A numerical study of near-equatorial genesis of Typhoon Vamei
Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. Li

P3.4
P3.5
Kinetic energy efficiencies of idealized developing tropical cyclones
Daniel P. Stern, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. S. Nolan

Handout (509.2 kB)

P3.6
roles of cloud physics in development of tropical cyclone
Masahiro Sawada, Tohoku university, sendai, miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki and S. Weiming

P3.7
The development of QuikSCAT-derived surface vorticity during tropical cyclogenesis
Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and P. D. Reasor and M. A. Bourassa

P3.9
Cyclogenesis and Tropical Transition in decaying frontal zones
Michelle L. Stewart, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

P3.11
Hurricane genesis study using WRF
Nelsie A. Ramos, Howard University, Washington, DC


Poster Session 4
Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P4.1
Consensus Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Integrated Multispectral (IR and MW) Satellite Observations
Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. C. Herndon, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and M. DeMaria

Handout (112.7 kB)

P4.2
The intensification of cyclones from asymmetric heating revisited: energetics and weakly nonlinear effects
Yumin Moon, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Handout (74.9 kB)

P4.3
The Influence of Multi-Level Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclones
Brian H. Tang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

P4.5
A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies
Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

P4.6
P4.7
The impact of environmental dry air and shear on the intensity of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) before landfall
Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. Kaplan, and S. B. Goldenberg

P4.8
The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Symmetric environment
Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. C. Morgan and G. J. Tripoli

P4.9
Nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes
Zhao Yu Sr., Tianjin Meteorological Institutation, Tianjin, China; and L. Xiaoying

P4.12
Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Tanveerul Islam, Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Peterson

Handout (343.0 kB)

P4.13
Analysis and Detection of Tornadoes Associated with Hurricane Emily
Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NWS, Brownsville, TX; and M. Martin, Jr., A. Partick, and J. Haro

Handout (706.0 kB)

P4.14
Investigating the boundary layer wind structure in numerically simulated landfalling hurricanes
John Walker, University of South Alabama, Moble, AL; and S. K. Kimball

P4.15
Shear-Induced Vertical Circulations in Tropical Cyclones
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. Q. Kieu

P4.17
Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and Its Translation: A Diagnostic Analysis
Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, P. R. China, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei

P4.18
What Sets a Hurricane's Radius of Maximum Wind?
Agnieszka A. Smith-Mrowiec, NASA GISS / Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. T. Garner and O. Pauluis

P4.19
Validation of QuikSCAT wind retrievals in hurricanes
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. G. Long and F. J. Wentz

P4.21
A study on the intensity change of typhoon Nakri (0208) - observation and GDAPS data analysis
Baek-Jo Kim, MRI, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Kang, C. H. Cho, and H. S. Chung

Handout (2.4 MB)

P4.22
Effects of Landfall location and teh approach angle of a cyclone encountering a mesoscale mountain range
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. C. Savage III and C. M. Hill

Handout (622.8 kB)

P4.23
A closer look at tropical cyclones in vertical shear flow: Diabatic heating and vortex resliency
Paul D. Reasor, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and M. D. Eastin and D. S. Nolan


Poster Session 5
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P5.1
Application of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit products to NOGAPS hurricane initialization
Bing Fu, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, M. S. Peng, T. Zhu, F. Weng Sr., and T. F. Hogan

P5.3
An internal tropical cyclone tracker for numerical models
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin

P5.4
The sensitivity of hurricane simulations to the distribution of vertical levels
F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball

Handout (48.7 kB)

P5.5
Improving Hurricane Visualization
Henry R. Winterbottom, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou and G. Erlebacher

P5.6
Evaluation of a tropical cyclone tracker for operational use with the COAMPS© regional model
Jeff Lerner, Vaisala, Seattle, WA; and A. Hergert and C. Dickerman

Handout (309.4 kB)

P5.8
A recent history of the GFDN Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model
Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman

Handout (66.5 kB)

P5.9
Test of a mesoscale model over the south west Indian ocean for cyclones analysis and prediction
Samuel Westrelin, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France; and F. Ghislain, L. Berre, and J. M. Willemet

Handout (299.4 kB)

P5.11
Two cases illustrating limitations in forecasting tropical cyclones
Philippe Caroff, Météo-France, La Réunion, France; and A. C. Fontan

Handout (312.3 kB)

P5.12
Improvements in integrated satellite reconnaissance tropical cyclone fix accuracy
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and T. P. Hendricks, J. A. Gibbs, and M. A. Lander

P5.13
Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth, and T. Marchok

Handout (52.8 kB)

P5.14
The Sensitivity of WRF Simulations of Hurricane Ivan to Choice of Cumulus Parameterization
Megan S. Gentry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Handout (292.4 kB)

P5.16
Prediction of trends of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin
Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro, J. Gonzalez, and M. Angeles

Handout (136.4 kB)

P5.19
A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Hydrometeor Profiles from TRMM, Airborne Radar, and High-resolution simulations
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, F. Marks, K. Valde, and S. S. Chen

Handout (399.4 kB)

P5.20
Spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks
Tingzhuang Yan, Dept. of Marine. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl

P5.21
Application of stochastic and deterministic modeling to hurricane wind risk assessment
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi

Handout (91.0 kB)

P5.22
Graphical mapping of tropical cyclone forecast wind probabilities worldwide
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Yuen

Handout (157.2 kB)

P5.23
Seasonal prediction of typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific basin
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

P5.24
Temporal Variance of Typhoon Disasters in Recent Six Centuries in Shanghai and Preventing ,Mitigating Strategies
Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and Q. Yang, Y. Duan, and M. Ying

P5.25
Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Storms (Hurricanes)
Rouzbeh Nazari, NOAA-CREST, College (CCNY) at the City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi


Poster Session 6
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P6.3
Using ERA40 in Cyclone Phase Space to refine the classification of historical tropical storms
Danielle Manning, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

Handout (263.0 kB)

P6.5
Warm seclusion cyclone climatology
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

P6.6
ET frontal/surface wind evolution observed by QuikSCAT
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P6.7
P6.8
Structural changes of low level wind field of tropical cyclones in idealised extratropical transition scenarios
Michael Riemer, Universität Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Hofheinz and S. C. Jones

P6.9
Forecasting and Adaptive Observing Issues in Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
David E. Kofron, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. D. Aberson and S. J. Majumdar

P6.10

Poster Session 7
The 2005 Atlantic Season
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P7.1
Summary of Texas Tech University's hurricanes at landfall project 2005
Ian M. Giammanco, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and B. P. Edwards

Handout (645.9 kB)

P7.3
A comparison of targeting techniques for 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. C. Wu, S. J. Majumdar, and S. D. Aberson

Handout (407.3 kB)

P7.4
Hurricane Ivan Damage Survey
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX

Handout (1.4 MB)

P7.5
Hurricane Katrina Damage Survey
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX

Handout (1.6 MB)

P7.6
The University of South Alabama Mesonet and data collected during the 2005 Hurricane Season
Jason Holmes, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball and K. Blackwell

P7.8
Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer
Bo-Wen Shen, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Atlas, O. Reale, S. J. Lin, J. D. Chern, J. Chang, and C. E. Henze

P7.9
Ensemble analyses and predictions of Hurricane Katrina
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

P7.10
Eyewall evolution of Hurricane Katrina near landfall using NEXRAD reflectivity and radial velocity data
Kimberly D. Campo, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and T. M. Rickenbach

Handout (394.0 kB)

P7.11
Mesoscale Model Investigation of Ocean-Atmospheric Interactions and Intensity Change Associated with Hurricane Katrina Land Fall over Louisiana-Mississippi
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and H. Chekuru, A. Surakanti, and G. S. Holmes

P7.12
Synthesis of common structure features at landfall in Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma using real-time airborne and ground-based observations
Peter G. Black, Unmanned Systems Division, Cherokee Nation Technologies, LLC; supporting NOAA UAS Program Office, Salinas, CA; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. Atlas


Poster Session 8
Tropical Waves and Intraseasonal Variability
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P8.1
Atmospheric intraseasonal variability and the seasonal cycle over tropical Indo-Pacific region
Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel

P8.2
Tropical intraseasonal variability in 22 IPCC, DEMETER and NCEP global models
Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

P8.3
Precipitation structures and atmospheric waves over the tropical ocean
Abigail Swann, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and A. H. Sobel, S. E. Yuter, and G. N. Kiladis

P8.5
Mechanisms of large-scale wave organization in a two-dimensional cloud resolving model
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes and G. N. Kiladis

P8.7
Structure of tropical variability from a vertical mode perspective
Matthew Peters, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

P8.8
Mid-summer gap winds and low-level circulation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific
Rosario Romero-Centeno, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), México City (D.F.), México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. B. Raga

Handout (994.4 kB)


Poster Session 9
Monsoons
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P9.1
An extreme Saharan dust outbreak in spring 2004 and its impact on the onset of the West African monsoon
Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. H. Fink

Handout (2.9 MB)

P9.2
The role of equatorial waves in the onset of the 1998 South China Sea summer monsoon
Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. E. Ciesielski

P9.3
Annual Cycle of Southeast Asia—Maritime Continent Rainfall and the Asymmetric Seasonal Transition
Zhuo Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. P. Chang

P9.4
SST cooling in the western North Pacific and its association with regional climate variations during summer
Hiroki Tokinaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and Q. Moteki, K. Yasunaga, H. Kubota, and R. Shirooka

P9.5
Axisymmetric and asymmetric monsoons in idealized experiments
Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and T. Schneider and B. Stevens


Poster Session 10
Tropical Convection, Clouds, and Rainfall
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P10.1
Bias correction of rainfall simulation in east asia using a statistical-dynamic method
Jung-Lien Chu, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. T. Chen

Handout (266.3 kB)

P10.2
Consistency check of TRMM rainfall estimates using a radiative transfer model
Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan; and H. Sasaki and K. Okamoto

P10.4
Melting-layer cloud observed over the tropical western Pacific
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, H. Kubota, H. Okamoto, A. Shimizu, H. Kumagai, M. Katsumata, N. Sugimoto, and I. Matsui

Handout (2.9 MB)

P10.5
The suppression of deep convection in the southwest Caribbean
Jorge Cisneros, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and D. Martinez

Handout (228.2 kB)

P10.7
P10.8
Impacts of model resolution on the statistical behavior of simulated convection
Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY; and S. T. Garner

P10.10
Synoptic variability of the tropical convection over Central Africa
Thi Thuy Hanh Nguyen, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel

P10.11
Diurnal variation of radar echoes and their possible role of preconditioning the atmospheric humidity
Tomoki Ushiyama, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, H. Kubota, T. Chuda, K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, H. Yamada, M. Fujita, N. Satoh, K. K. Reddy, and H. Uyeda

Handout (2.8 MB)

P10.13
The diurnal cycle and propagation of deep convective clouds in Africa
Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and V. Levizzani and R. E. Carbone

Handout (311.2 kB)


Poster Session 11
Ocean-Atmosphere
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P11.2
Sea surface temperature signatures of oceanic internal waves in low winds
J. Tom Farrar, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and C. J. Zappa, R. Weller, and A. T. Jessup

Handout (2.4 MB)

P11.3
Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations Associated with Intraseasonal Oscillations of the Tropical Convection
Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard

P11.5
Idealized hotspot experiments with a general circulation model
Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel

P11.6
Dynamics of the Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations
Sara Vieira, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo and P. J. Webster


Poster Session 12
Marine Boundary Layer
Location: Monterey Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
P12.1
Air-sea fluxes in Hurricane Frances (2004) from dropsonde data and a coupled model
Mélicie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and W. Zhao

P12.2
Toward an Emperical Relationship for the Dynamical Reponse of the 26 C Isotherm to TC Speed and Intensity
Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and H. R. Winterbottom

P12.4
Wind patterns in FNL and MM5 simulations during the EPIC2001 project
Julio C. Marin, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, DF, Mexico; and D. Raymond and G. B. Raga

Handout (429.0 kB)

P12.5
Frictional decoupling and the inertial oscillation in stable marine atmospheric boundary layers
Costas Helmis, Univ. of Athens, Athens, Greece; and Q. Wang, G. Sgouros, and S. Wang

Handout (233.0 kB)

P12.6
The dynamics of the shallow circulation and its associated moisture transport
David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

P12.7
Two-way coupled mesoscale air-sea interaction in hurricane Frances (2004) and Katrina (2005)
Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, and Y. Jin

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 April 2006


Panel Discussion 1
Long-term Variations in Tropical Cyclone Activity - Possible Causes and Effects
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Moderator: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS
7:00 PM
PD1.1
Introductory Remarks

7:10 PM
PD1.2
7:25 PM
PD1.3
Tropical Cyclone trends in a Warming Environment
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
7:40 PM
PD1.4
8:25 PM
PD1.7
Rebuttal (5 minutes per presenter)

8:50 PM
PD1.8
Open discussion

Wednesday, 26 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Wed 26 April

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 7C
Special Session: CBLAST LOW
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut
8:00 AM
7C.1
8:15 AM
7C.2
Contributions of Swell to Air-Sea Interactions under Weak Wind Conditions
Jielun Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. P. Burns, J. B. Edson, D. Khelif, L. Mahrt, D. Vickers, and T. Hristov

8:30 AM
7C.3
Evaluation of air-sea bulk formula
Dean Vickers, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt
8:45 AM
7C.4
Wind, waves and Langmuir circulation during CBLAST-Low
Albert J. Plueddemann, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
9:30 AM
7C.7
Effects of mesoscale SST fronts on the marine boundary layer
Eric D. Skyllingstad, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt and D. Vickers
9:45 AM
7C.8
Coherent structures in ocean skin temperature variability
Christopher J. Zappa, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. T. Jessup, J. T. Farrar, and R. A. Weller

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 7A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction I - Model Development
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chris Fogarty, EC
8:15 AM
7A.2
The Hurricane WRF (HWRF): Addressing our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems
Naomi Surgi, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Gopalkrishnan, Q. Liu, R. E. Tuleya, and W. O'Connor
8:30 AM
7A.3
NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting
S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic
8:45 AM
7A.4
A summary of recent GFDL model upgrades and plans for 2006
Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, and I. J. Moon
9:00 AM
7A.5
Evaluations of the AFWA Weather Research Forecast Model Tropical Cyclone Predictions
William R. Ryerson, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, S. Rugg, and J. Weigel
9:15 AM
7A.6
A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, C. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds

9:30 AM
7A.7
Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance
C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, and R. Buizza
9:45 AM
7A.8

Session 7B
Tropical Cyclone Landfall
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
7B.1
The perspective below: ground-level reconnaissance in landfalling hurricanes
Forrest Masters, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and M. D. Powell

8:15 AM
7B.2
Topographic effetcs on Typhoon Nari (2001): Verification and sensitivity experiments
Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang
8:30 AM
7B.3
Tropical Cyclone Landfall under the influence of Uniform Flow
William C. T. Shum, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
8:45 AM
7B.4
Stable Isotopes in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ivan (2004)
James Robert Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and K. Y. Kong
9:00 AM
7B.5
9:15 AM
7B.6
Analyses and Modeling of Typhoon Imbudo in 2003
Gang Fu, DELL, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Li and Y. Duan


Session 7D
Tropical Convection I
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Courtney Schumaker, Texas A&M
8:15 AM
7D.2
The origin of systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitation
Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, B. Chen, and L. L. Takacs
9:00 AM
7D.5
Meridional moisture transport by tropical synoptic scale disturbances over the Pacific and Atlantic basins
Chia-chi Wang, Department of Earth System Science, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir
9:15 AM
7D.6
9:30 AM
7D.7
A simple, vertically resolved model of tropical disturbances with a humidity closure
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
9:45 AM
7D.8

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 8A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction II - Initialisation
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center
10:30 AM
8A.1
Reanalysis of western Pacific typhoons in 2004 using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique
Xin Zhang, IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, F. Weng, and C. C. Wu
10:45 AM
8A.2
Hurricane Initialization in HWRF Model
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, S. Lord, W. S. Wu, D. Parrish, S. Gopalakrishnan, J. Waldrop, and J. Gamache
11:15 AM
8A.4
Impack of TOMS ozone observations on hurricane track prediction
Yonghui Wu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and X. Zou
11:30 AM
8A.5

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 8B
tropical cyclone motion
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD
10:30 AM
8B.1
The effect of interaction between meso-scale system and typhoon on Its motion and structure change
Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Luo
10:45 AM
8B.2
Targeted Observations of Tropical Cyclone Movement Based on the Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector
Jan-Huey Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou
11:00 AM
8B.3
A study on the Orographic Effects on the Movement of Typhoon Haitang (2005) in East of Taiwan
T.-C. Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, and K. N. Huang
11:15 AM
8B.4
11:30 AM
8B.5
11:45 AM
8B.6
A simulation study on pre-landfall erratic track of typhoon Haitang (2005) with GRAPES_TCM
Hui Yu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and W. Huang, Y. Duan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Yu

Session 8C
Special Session: CBLAST LOW II and CBLAST HURRICANE I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut; Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington
10:30 AM
8C.1
Rapid transition of boundary layer structure observed on coastal sites
Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. Helmis, G. Katsouvas, and S. W. Wang
10:45 AM
8C.2
Numerical Simulation and Modeling of Air-Sea Coupling at Small Scales
Lian Shen, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and D. K. P. Yue

11:00 AM
8C.3
11:15 AM
8C.4
The hurricane mixing front
Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Harcourt, E. Terrill, P. P. Niiler, and T. B. Sanford
11:30 AM
8C.5
High-resolution vertical profiling of ocean velocity and water properties under Hurricane Frances in September 2004
Thomas B. Sanford, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. B. Girton, J. F. Price, and D. C. Webb
11:45 AM
8C.6
Relaxation of SST in the cool wake of a hurricane
James F. Price, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and J. Morzel

Session 8D
Tropical Convection II
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD)
10:45 AM
8D.2
The Convective cold top and quasi-equilibrium
Christopher E. Holloway, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
11:00 AM
8D.3
Mesoscale aspects in the formation of a pre-cyclogenic African easterly wave near the Ethiopian Highlands
Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Presentation PDF (1011.6 kB)

11:15 AM
8D.4
Convective systems in the Bay of Bengal during the Indian Summer Monsoon
Wen-wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and H. M. Hsu and M. W. Moncrieff

11:30 AM
8D.5
The Interaction of Clouds and Dry Air in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Mapes, J. L. Lin, C. Fairall, and G. Wick
11:45 AM
8D.6
The MCS life cycle: prototype or building block of larger-scale waves?
Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. N. Tulich

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 9D
Tropical Convection III
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
1:30 PM
9D.1
A Rational Approach to Cumulus Parameterization
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
1:45 PM
9D.2
2:00 PM
9D.3
Sensitivities of explicity simulated tropical cloud ensembles to their large-scale setting
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes

2:15 PM
9D.4
Testing convective parameterizations against tropical measurements of CO, HNO3, O3, and H2O
Ian A. Folkins, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and B. M. Sinnhuber
2:30 PM
9D.5
Multicloud parametrizations for convectively coupled tropical waves
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Majda

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 9A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction III - Applications
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
1:30 PM
9A.1
1:45 PM
9A.2
opical Cyclone Satellite Tutorial Online Through The COMET Program
Thomas F. Lee, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Miller, F. J. Turk, J. D. Hawkins, P. Dills, and S. Wang
2:00 PM
9A.3
Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Enhance Local Forecasts and Improve Guidance for Decision-Makers
David Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and M. Volkmer, P. Santos, G. Rader, and M. Sardi
2:15 PM
9A.4
An asymmetric hurricane wind model for storm surge and wave forecasting
Shaowu Bao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. J. Pietrafesa
2:30 PM
9A.5
Providing Tropical Cyclone Weather Support to Space Launch Operations
Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and J. W. Weems, F. C. Flinn, G. B. Kubat, S. B. Cocks, and J. T. Madura
2:45 PM
9A.6
How well forecast were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and US hurricane seasons?
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

Session 9B
Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian J. Gaudet, Univ. of New Mexico
1:30 PM
9B.1
The interaction of tropical cyclones with the Saharan Air Layer: model case studies from 2004
Sarah Jones, Universität Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and N. Lichtenberger and B. Vogel
2:00 PM
9B.3
The Genesis of Hurricane Humberto (2001)
Klaus Dolling, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. Barnes
2:15 PM
9B.4
2:30 PM
9B.5
The effect of mid-level moistening on tropical cyclogenesis
Melville Nicholls, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Montgomery
2:45 PM
9B.6
Statistical analysis of organized cloud clusters on western North Pacific and their warm core structure
Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa, S. Nishimura, K. Kato, and S. Hoshino

1:30 PM-3:05 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 9C
Special Session: CBLAST HURRICANE II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter G. Black, Unmanned Systems Division, Cherokee Nation Technologies, LLC; supporting NOAA UAS Program Office
1:50 PM
9C.2
Synthesis of major results from the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer Experiment (CBLAST) in hurricanes (2003–2004)
Peter G. Black, Unmanned Systems Division, Cherokee Nation Technologies, LLC; supporting NOAA UAS Program Office, Salinas, CA; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. R. French, and W. M. Drennan
2:05 PM
9C.3
CBLAST Wind-Wave Parameterization for Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models in Hurricane Research and Prediction
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, M. Donelan, J. F. Price, E. J. Walsh, and H. Tolman
2:20 PM
9C.4
Direct Airborne Measurements of Momentum Flux in Hurricanes
Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/OAR/ARL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. M. Drennan, J. A. Zhang, and P. G. Black
2:35 PM
9C.5
Latent heat fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer
William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. R. French, and P. G. Black

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 10D
Tropical Convection IV
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stefan N. Tulich, NOAA/CIRES/CDC
3:30 PM
10D.1
4:30 PM
10D.5
Estimation of precipitation and latent heating distributions in tropical convection from a combined analysis of passive microwave and spaceborne radar observations
William S. Olson, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Grecu, C. L. Shie, and S. A. Braun
4:45 PM
10D.6

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 10A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction IV - Landfall
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island
3:30 PM
10A.1
United States landfalling hurricane probability webpage
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
3:45 PM
10A.2
Pre-Season Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Frequency
Lian Xie, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Yan, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl
4:00 PM
10A.3
Recent results on landfalling hurricanes with the GFDL hurricane-land-ocean coupled system at NCEP
Weixing Shen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Tuleya, N. Surgi, S. J. Lord, K. E. Mitchell, T. P. Marchok, and M. A. Bender
4:15 PM
10A.4
4:30 PM
10A.5
The Impact of the Dropwindsonde Data from DOTSTAR on the Prediction of Typhoon Conson (2004)
Wei-Peng Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou
5:00 PM
10A.7
Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)
Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and R. McTaggart-Cowan
5:15 PM
10A.8
A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity
P. S. Chu, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and X. Zhao

Session 10B
Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Arlene Laing, NCAR
3:30 PM
10B.1
Tropical transition: possible mechanisms and observational needs
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart
3:45 PM
10B.2
4:00 PM
10B.3
The tropical transition of hurricane Alex (2004): An observational perspective
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery
4:15 PM
10B.4
Simulation of the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003)
Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun and J. Qu
4:30 PM
10B.5
Vorcity-Based Detection of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Michelle M. Hite, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, P. Cunningham, J. J. O'Brien, and P. D. Reasor
4:45 PM
10B.6
5:00 PM
10B.7
Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems during Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific
Jenny S. N. Hui, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. K. W. Cheung, C. S. Lee, and R. L. Elsberry
5:15 PM
10B.8
Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis—satellite analysis
Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

3:30 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 26 April 2006


Session 10C
Special Session: CBLAST Hurricane III
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
3:30 PM
10C.1
Combining airborne wave observations with WAVEWATCH III model output
Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, I. Ginis, Y. Fan, and H. L. Tolman
3:45 PM
10C.2
Surface wave processes in high winds and hurricanes
W. Kendall Melville, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. M. Kleiss and L. Romero
4:00 PM
10C.3
A model of the effect of breaking waves on the air-sea momentum flux
Tobias Kukulka, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and T. Hara and S. E. Belcher
4:15 PM
10C.4
In situ measurements of 3D turbulence in Hurricanes Frances and Ivan using a pressure-sphere anemometer
Richard M. Eckman, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. J. Dobosy, T. W. Strong, and P. G. Hall
4:45 PM
10C.6
Preliminary Comparison of DOW and In Situ Wind Measurements in Hurricane Rita
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, P. Robinson, and F. Masters
5:00 PM
10C.7
5:15 PM
10C.8
Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations of Tropical Cyclones with the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler
Daniel Esteban Fernandez, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Jelenak, P. S. Chang, R. F. Contreras, T. Chu, P. Asuzu, and J. Carswell
5:30 PM
10C.9
High Resolution Airborne Radar Measurements of Hurricane Isabel
Robert F. Contreras, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and D. Esteban Fernandez, P. S. Chang, and P. G. Black

Thursday, 27 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Thur 27 April

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 11B
Tropical Cyclone Structure IV
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division
8:00 AM
11B.1
Buoyancy and the warm-core structure of hurricanes
Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's Univ., Munich, Germany
8:15 AM
11B.2
A Lagrangian View of a Simulated Hurricane
Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. A. Cram, J. Persing, and S. A. Braun
8:30 AM
11B.3
The Effect of External Forcing on the Structure Change of Tropical Cyclones
Yoshio Kurihara, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Yoshioka
8:45 AM
11B.4
Wavelike Structure of the Rainbands of a Concentric Eyewall Typhoon Revealed from Doppler Radar Observations
Ben J.-D. Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and R. F. Liu
9:00 AM
11B.5
9:15 AM
11B.6
Effects of land-sea roughness contrast on tropical cyclone winds
Martin L. M. Wong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
9:30 AM
11B.7
Waves in a cloudy vortex
David A. Schecter, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 11A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction V - Track
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert E. Tuleya, EMC
8:30 AM
11A.3
The Impact of Dropsonde Data from DOTSTAR on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Kun-Hsuan Chou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, S. Aberson, M. Peng, and T. Nakazawa
8:45 AM
11A.4
Improvement of tropical cyclone track forecasting using a model-constrained 3D-Var data assimilation scheme
Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and B. Wang, J. Chan, Y. Duan, D. Wang, Z. Zeng, and L. Ma

9:00 AM
11A.5
Impact of AMSU and AMSR-E Measurements on Hurricane Prediction
Tong Zhu, Colorado State Univ./CIRA at NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng, Q. Liu, and N. Surgi
9:15 AM
11A.6
Evaluation of causes of large 96-h and 120-h track errors in the western North Pacific
Kathryn Anne Payne, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Kehoe, M. A. Boothe, and R. L. Elsberry
9:30 AM
11A.7
An Experiment on the Impact of Initial Fields and Boundary Conditions on the Typhoon Track Simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh
9:45 AM
11A.8
Tropical cyclone modeling in a probabilistic framework
William E. Lewis, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

Session 11C
Tropical Cyclone - Large Scale Interaction
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University
8:00 AM
11C.1
Incorporation of equatorial wave modes into tropical synoptic meteorology: Is It worth the trouble?
John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro and C. Schreck
8:15 AM
11C.2
Summertime Synoptic-scale Variability over the Tropical Western Pacific: Role of Extratropical Forcing
Chi-Yung Francis Tam, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and T. Li
9:00 AM
11C.5
Role of Large-scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Japan
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Rajendran
9:15 AM
11C.6
Possible feedback of tropical cyclone on climate variability
H.-H. Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and A. K. Lo, C. H. Hung, and C. C. Wu
9:45 AM
11C.8
Hunting for Saharan air with the NOAA G-IV jet
Jason P. Dunion, University of Miami/RSMAS/CIMAS - NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. D. Hawkins and C. S. Velden

Session 11D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA
8:00 AM
11D.1
Welcoming Remarks

8:05 AM
11D.2
Diurnal variation of tropical rain revealed by TRMM
Kenji Nakamura, Dokkyo University, Soka, Saitama, Japan
8:30 AM
11D.3
8:45 AM
11D.4
Ensemble Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Cycle from TRMM
Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD; and E. A. Smith
9:00 AM
11D.5
Eight Years of TRMM Data: Exploring Regional Mechanisms Behind the Diurnal Cycle
Stephen W. Nesbitt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, C. Liu, and E. J. Zipser
9:30 AM
11D.7
Physical processes controlling warm-season precipitation diurnal cycle in the central U.S
Junhong Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Dai, D. Parsons, and X. Z. Liang
9:45 AM
11D.8
Satellite Estimates of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation
Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and M. Manyin

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Coffee Break

10:25 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 12D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Modeling I
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC
11:15 AM
12D.3
Tropical rainfall diurnal variation in a 20km-mesh atmospheric GCM
Osamu Arakawa, Advanced Earth Science & Technology Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Kitoh
11:30 AM
12D.4
Prediction of the diurnal change of precipitation using a multi model superensemble and TRMM data sets
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. Gnanaseelan and A. Chakraborty
11:45 AM
12D.5
Modeling rainfall diurnal variation of Northern American monsoon core using different spatial resolution
Jialun Li, University of California, Irvine, California; and X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 12A
Special Session:- RAINEX I
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert A. Houze Jr., University of Washington
10:30 AM
12A.1
Overview of RAINEX Flight Program
Robert A. Houze Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:45 AM
12A.2
Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

11:00 AM
12A.3
RAINEX Overview – Airborne Doppler Radar Data
Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO

11:15 AM
12A.4
Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 and WRF Forecasts during RAINEX
John P. Cangialosi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, W. Zhao, W. Wang, and J. Michalakas
11:30 AM
12A.5
Rainbands and secondary eye wall formation as observed in RAINEX
Derek Ortt, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and S. S. Chen
11:45 AM
12A.6
Tropical cyclone dynamics deduced from ensemble state estimation
Gregory J. Hakim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn

Session 12B
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Fresh-Water Flooding
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland
10:45 AM
12B.2
Effect of ocean surface waves on storm surge and coastal flooding
Huiqing Liu, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and M. Peng
11:00 AM
12B.3
Factors that contributed to the Hurricane Gaston flooding event in Richmond, Virginia
Zachary G. Brown, Kentucky Mesonet, Bowling Green, KY; and Y. L. Lin and M. L. Kaplan
11:15 AM
12B.4
A look at Tropical Storm Gaston flooding in Virginia
John Billet, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA VA; and K. Lynch
11:30 AM
12B.5
The Effect of Shear and Topography on Rainfall Forecasting with R-CLIPER
Manuel Lonfat, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom; and R. Rogers, F. D. Marks Jr., T. Marchok, and A. Boissonnade
11:45 AM
12B.6
Unexpectedly heavy rainfall due to mesoscale features Induced by a landfalling and non-transitioning tropical storm
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 12C
Special Session: Predictability of the North American monsoon and NAME
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD
10:30 AM
12C.1
10:45 AM
12C.2
Analysis of the 13 July gulf surge event during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment
Peter J. Rogers, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
11:00 AM
12C.3
On the structure and efficacy of gulf surges
Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and B. Stevens
11:15 AM
12C.4
Analysis of Heat and Moisture Budgets from the NAME Enhanced Sounding Network
Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
11:30 AM
12C.5
NAME CPT Project - Issues for warm season prediction
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. H. Y. Soo-Hyun.Yoo@noaa.gov, L. W. Lindsey.N.Williams@noaa.gov, and D. S. Gutzler
11:45 AM
12C.6
Seasonal and interannual variability of moisture fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea and associations with rainfall
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, CIMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. B. Enfield and C. Zhang
12:00 PM
12C.7
Variations in the daily cycle of winds along the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Rodriguez-Manzanet and R. H. Johnson

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Lunch Break

1:25 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 13D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kenji Nakamura, Dokkyo University
1:25 PM
13D.1
The diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall frequency over continents
R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, A. Laing, T. Lang, T. D. Keenan, J. D. Tuttle, and C. C. Wang
1:50 PM
13D.2
Diurnal variability of vertical structure from a TRMM passive microwave "virtual radar" retrieval
Dennis J. Boccippio, NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center XD-11, Huntsville, AL; and W. A. Petersen and D. Cecil

2:30 PM
13D.4
Diurnal variations in tropical diabatic heating profiles
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and M. H. Zhang and P. E. Ciesielski

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 13A
Special Session: RAINEX II
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
1:45 PM
13A.2
Evidence and impacts of dry air intrusion in Hurricane Ophelia: Observations from RAINEX
Bradley F. Smull, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze

2:00 PM
13A.3
Rainband structures observed in RAINEX
Deanna A. Hence, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.
2:15 PM
13A.4
Aircraft observations of concentric eyewall formation and evolution in Hurricane Rita on 22 September 2005
Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. L. Corbosiero, J. Molinari, and R. Rogers

2:30 PM
13A.5
Secondary eyewall structure in Hurricane Rita: Results from RAINEX
Jasmine Cetrone, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. and M. M. Bell
2:45 PM
13A.6
Observed vorticity evolution in Hurricane Rita (2005)
Michael Bell, NCAR/EOL & Colorado State University, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee and J. Cetrone

Session 13C
Ocean-Atmosphere
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School
1:30 PM
13C.1
Surface Turbulent Stress Derived from GPS Dropsondes
Mark A. Bourassa, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:45 PM
13C.2
The VASCO-CIRENE experiment
Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard
2:00 PM
13C.3
International Ocean Database Management System for the China Seas and Adjacent Ocean (IODBMS)
Yan Sun, Tianjin Association for Science and Technology, Tianjin 300202, China

2:15 PM
13C.4
Role of Indian and Pacific Ocean air-sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability
Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman
2:30 PM
13C.5
How does the air-sea interaction affect potential climate predictability?
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. Y. Wu

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 13B
Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI
1:30 PM
13B.1
Tropical cyclogenesis as revealed by the NOGAPS analysis
Bing Fu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and T. F. Hogan
1:45 PM
13B.2
Rossby wave radiation from non-translating and from moving vortices
Kyle D. Krouse, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and L. M. Polvani
2:15 PM
13B.4
Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001)
Kate Musgrave, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery
2:30 PM
13B.5
2:45 PM
13B.6

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Session 14A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction VI - Intensity
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office
3:30 PM
14A.1
Tropical cyclone genesis in TC-LAPS: The importance of sufficient net deep convection and system scale cyclonic absolute vorticty
Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and N. E. Davidson and M. T. Montgomery
3:45 PM
14A.2
Validation of TC-LAPS structure forecasts of some significant 2004–2005 US hurricanes
Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. J. Rikus, R. A. Dare, C. I. W. Tingwell, and H. C. Weber
4:15 PM
14A.4
On the Calculation of Vertical Shear: An Operational Perspective
Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and C. Sisko and R. D. Knabb
4:30 PM
14A.5
Recent updates to SHIPS-MI
Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Cecil
4:45 PM
14A.6
On the pressure-wind relationship in tropical cyclones
Harry C. Weber, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany
5:15 PM
14A.8
Equilibrium translation model – a key to prediction of tropical hurricane intensity
Irakli G. Shekriladze, Georgian Technical Univ., Tbilisi, Georgia

Session 14B
Tropical Cyclogenesis IV
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany/SUNY
3:45 PM
14B.2
Convectively Generated Hot, Vortical Towers During the Genesis of Typhoon Nari (2001)
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Tian and A. Wang
4:00 PM
14B.3
Contributions of the African Easterly Waves and the Northern Vortices to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation
Jodi Beattie, Department of Physics, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and R. L. Elsberry and P. A. Harr
4:30 PM
14B.5
An evaluation and comparison of predictions of tropical cyclogenesis by three global forecast models
Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. A. Harr, L. A. Avila, J. G. Jiing, and G. Elliott
5:00 PM
14B.7
Axisymmetric tropical cyclogenesis via a single convective ring
Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Session 14C
Climate Dynamics and Hydrologic Cycle
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Harry H. Hendon, BMRC
3:30 PM
14C.1
3:45 PM
14C.2
Eddy-Influences on Hadley Circulations: Theory and Simulations with an Idealized GCM
Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. C. Walker

4:00 PM
14C.3
Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics Through a Southerly Conveyor
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and C. P. Chang, B. Wang, and F. F. Jin

4:15 PM
14C.4
Nature of Asian monsoon precipitation
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, C. Schumacher, and R. A. Houze Jr.
4:30 PM
14C.5
Cloud microphysics, dynamics, and free tropospheric water vapor
Steven C. Sherwood, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and C. Meyer, E. R. Kursinski, and W. G. Read
4:45 PM
14C.6
Diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity over the tropics and its relations to convective activities
Eui-Seok Chung, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and B. J. Sohn and J. Schmetz
5:00 PM
14C.7
5:15 PM
14C.8
Variations of tropical deep convective systems with sea surface temperature and precipitation efficiency
Bing Lin, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and A. Fan, L. H. Chambers, and P. Minnis


Session 14D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Regional Observations
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison
3:30 PM
14D.1
Introductory Remarks

3:35 PM
14D.2
4:00 PM
14D.3
Diurnal propagating precipitating systems to the north of New Guinea Island: In-situ observation of internal structure and ambient atmosphere
Masaki Katsumata, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yoneyama and H. Kubota
4:15 PM
14D.4
Observational strategy for diurnal to intraseasonal rainfall variability study over Sumatera Island using the JEPP/GEOSS radar-profiler network
Shuichi Mori, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Jun-Ichi, T. Sasaki, P. Wu, and M. D. Yamanaka
4:30 PM
14D.5
The diurnal cycle of convection over the northern South China Sea
Steven L. Aves, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
4:45 PM
14D.6
Diurnal variation of precipitation observed over Palau in the western Pacific
Hisayuki Kubota, Research Institute for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, T. Ushiyama, T. Chuda, K. K. Reddy, M. Katsumata, K. Yoneyama, K. Yasunaga, Q. Moteki, N. Sato, M. Fujita, and N. Suginohara
5:00 PM
14D.7
Diurnal cycle characteristics of precipitation in the east Pacific
Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and S. E. Yuter

7:00 PM-7:00 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Shuttle Buses from the Hyatt to the Monterey Bay Aquarium

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 27 April 2006


Strolling Reception: The Monterey Bay Aquarium

Friday, 28 April 2006

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Fri 28 April

8:25 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Session 15D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional modeling II
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC
8:25 AM
15D.1
Diurnal cycles of precipitation in observations and GCM simulations
Kenneth P. Bowman, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
8:50 AM
15D.2
Diurnal variations of precipitation over land: A challenge to models
D. A. Randall, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
9:15 AM
15D.3
Diurnal Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
9:45 AM
15D.5
Diurnal Variation of Global Precipitation and Water-Vapor Budget
Tsing-Chang (Mike) Chen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Session 15A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction VII - Intensity
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Harry C. Weber, University of Munich
8:30 AM
15A.1
Accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic
Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and T. Lambert, J. Blackerby, and R. L. Elsberry
9:00 AM
15A.3
A statistical intensity model consensus for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Knaff and M. DeMaria
9:15 AM
15A.4
Use of radar data for TC initialization and predictions
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, W. C. Lee, and W. Wang
9:45 AM
15A.6
Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with MODIS and OLS
Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Hawkins, K. Richardson, T. F. Lee, and F. J. Turk

Session 15C
Tropical Cyclones and Climate IV - Interannual/Decadal Variability
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech
8:45 AM
15C.2
ENSO and Genesis Potential Index in Reanalysis and AGCMs
Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and K. A. Emanuel and A. H. Sobel
9:15 AM
15C.3
ENSO and atmospheric energetics along the tropical storm track
Pang-chi Hsu, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Tsou and H. H. Hsu
9:30 AM
15C.4
9:45 AM
15C.5
Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
Kin Sik Liu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:30 AM-10:15 AM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Session 15B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity III
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA
8:30 AM
15B.1
Internal dynamic control of hurricane intensity change: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing
James Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Madison, WI; and W. H. Schubert, C. M. Rozoff, and P. J. Mulero
8:45 AM
15B.2
The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Asymmetric environment
Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Tripoli and M. C. Morgan

9:00 AM
15B.3
Robust and interpretable statistical models for predicting the intensification of tropical cyclones
Kyriakos C. Chatzidimitriou, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson and M. DeMaria
9:15 AM
15B.4
Interaction of hurricane and cloud scales: contribution to hurricane intensity
L. Stefanova, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. Krishnamurti and S. Pattnaik
9:30 AM
15B.5
Numerical experiments on the predictability of tropical-cyclone intensification
Sang Van Nguyen, Department of Physics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith
9:45 AM
15B.6
Rapid Intensity Change in Hurricane Lili (2002)
Mélicie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:00 AM
15B.7
Response of convection to hurricane-like horizontal and vertical shears
Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. D. Terwey, M. T. Montgomery, and W. H. Schubert

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Session 16A
Tropical Cyclone Prediction VIII - Model Sensitivity
Location: Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Melinda S. Peng, NRL
10:45 AM
16A.2
Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting
Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. Wentz and M. DeMaria
11:00 AM
16A.3
11:30 AM
16A.5
The Use of Dynamic Grid Adaptation Technique in Tropical Storm Prediction
Zafer Boybeyi, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. Kafatos, N. Ahmad, R. Gautam, G. Cervone, and D. Sun

12:00 PM
16A.7
A tropical cyclone rainfall climatology-persistence model for the Taiwan area
Kevin K. W. Cheung, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. R. Huang and C. S. Lee

Session 16B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV
Location: Regency Grand Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Montgomery, Colorado State Univ.
10:30 AM
16B.1
Preliminary Field Review of Automated Intensity Estimates
Caroline A. Bower, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and K. Viault, J. Roach, and J. Jaykoski
10:45 AM
16B.2
Impacts of Nucleating Aerosols on the Evolution of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone
Henian Zhang, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, and W. R. Cotton
11:00 AM
16B.3
11:30 AM
16B.5
Environmental dynamical control of tropical cyclone intensity—An observational study
Zhihua Zeng, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang, G. J. Holland, C. C. Wu, and Y. Duan
11:45 AM
16B.6
Generalizing the axisymmetric approach to hurricane intensity
John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
12:00 PM
16B.7
Extreme horizontal winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes
Sim Aberson, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, FL; and D. Stern
12:15 PM
16B.8
Extreme vertical winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes
Daniel P. Stern, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. D. Aberson

Session 16C
Tropical Cyclones and Climate V - Atlantic Basin
Location: Big Sur (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.
10:30 AM
16C.1
Comparing two active Atlantic hurricane eras: Are the differences real or simply due to improved observations?
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. J. Neumann and C. W. Landsea

11:00 AM
16C.3
Atlantic Basin, US and Caribbean Landfall Activity Rates over the 2006-2010 Period
Auguste Boissonnade, Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA; and M. Lonfat and R. Muir-Wood
11:15 AM
16C.4
11:30 AM
16C.6
Characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall in the United States
Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
12:00 PM
16C.7
A comparison of hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Camille (1969)
Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Session 16D
Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Studies
Location: Regency Grand BR 1-3 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA
10:30 AM
16D.1
The diurnal cycles of water and energy over North America as simulated by three reanalyses
A.C. Ruane, ECPC, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and J. O. Roads and M. Kanamitsu
10:45 AM
16D.2
Observational and numerical studies of coherent warm-season rainfall over the Bay of Bengal
Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff and J. D. Tuttle

11:00 AM
16D.3
Modeling the diurnal change of cloud cover using multiple global models and ISCCP/TRMM data sets
Arindam Chakraborty, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti
11:15 AM
16D.4
Diurnal variations of the water cycle in the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework
Jiun-dar Chern, GEST, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao and X. Lin
11:30 AM
16D.5
Observations during EPIC2001—Diurnal cycle in the East Pacific
Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
11:45 AM
16D.6
Radar-observed characteristics of the diurnal cycle of precipitation during NAME 2004
Timothy J. Lang, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, R. C. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone
12:00 PM
16D.7
Diurnal and semidiurnal surface wind variations over the tropical Pacific Ocean
Rei Ueyama, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Deser and J. M. Wallace
12:15 PM
16D.900
Concluding Remarks

12:30 PM-12:30 PM: Friday, 28 April 2006


Announcement of Max Eaton Prize and Conference Conclusion