A statistical intensity model consensus for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Statistical Intensity Prediction System or STIPS (Knaff, et al., 2005) has recently demonstrated statistically significant skill in forecasting intensity (wind speed) for both the western North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere. The operational STIPS at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) executes using the JTWC official track as input. In this study, an experiment is run executing STIPS with forecast track input from ten skillful NWP models and then forming a consensus of the predicted intensities from each of the members. Another experiment is run executing STIPS with forecast tracks and wind fields from five NWP models, then forming a consensus of the predicted intensities. Consensus results are then verified against those from individual STIPS members and STIPS run using the official JTWC track.