Assimilation of satellite and in situ observations during TCSP for understanding tropical cyclone intensification

Satellite observations and in situ data, obtained during NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission, are being assimilated into an advanced research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) model to achieve the following goals: 1) to evaluate the impact of satellite and in situ data on the forecast of tropical cyclone intensity and track; and 2) to understand the dynamic and thermodynamic processes that control the tropical cyclone intensification.

Preliminary studies have been conducted to assimilate aircraft dropsonding data and QuikSCAT satellite surface winds into WRF ARW model for the tropical storm Cindy (2005) and Hurricane Emily (2005). Results show positive impact on hurricane and tropical storm track forecast from the data assimilation. Further studies are currently extending to assimilate satellite data from TRMM, AQUA/TERRA as well as GOES cloud-track wind data into the model. Sensitivity studies are also going to be performed to detect the major environmental factors that have significant impact on the tropic cyclone intensification. Results will be presented at the conference.