The Hurricane WRF (HWRF): Addressing our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems

The Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast system (HWRF)is scheduled for operational implementation at NCEP in 2007 and will replace the current GFDL hurricane model. Under development at EMC, the HWRF is being designed to address the intensity, structure and rainfall forecast problem in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts. Continued advancements in track prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction system.

The HWRF is a coupled air-sea-land prediction system with a movable nested grid and physics suitable for high resolution. For initialization of the hurricane core circulation, an advanced data assimilation is being development at EMC that will make use of real time airborne Doppler radar data from NOAA's aircraft to initialize the three dimensional storm scale structure. To address the full scope of the operational hurricane forecast problems noted above, the HWRF will also include coupling to an advanced version of the operational hurricane wave model WAVEWATCH, that will feature a multiscale grid structure over the hurricane environment with a moving nest around the hurricane. This system will eventually be coupled to a dynamic storm surge model. Additionally, the land surface component will also serve as input to hydrology and inundation models to address to hurricane related inland flooding problem.

The HWRF was run four times a day during the 2005 hurricane season testing various aspects of the HWRF system. Progress at EMC on HWRF development for the initial 2007 implementation will be addressed in this presentation. Future development plans for HWRF advancement will also be discussed.