Evaluation of WRF-ARW high-resolution tropical storm forecasts in 2005 season

Advanced Research WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model was used in real-time during the 2005 hurricane season to forecast storms over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico that threatened landfall. The model was configured to have two domains: a coarse domain of 12 km grid, and a nest domain of 4 km grid. The 4 km domain can move within the 12 km domain to follow a tropical storm. The forecast length was at least for 3 days. In all, 39 forecasts are done for 5 named storms in the season: Katrina, Maria, Ophelia, Rita and Wilma.

The objective of the work is to evaluate the improvements that can be expected when a high-resolution, convection-permitting model is used to forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. We shall present track and intensity forecast statistics, together with a discussion of capacity to predict wind and precipitation structure.