Session 14A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VI - Intensity

Thursday, 27 April 2006: 3:30 PM-5:30 PM
Regency Grand BR 4-6 (Hyatt Regency Monterey)
Host: 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Numerical Weather Prediction, Exeter

Papers:
3:30 PM
14A.1
Tropical cyclone genesis in TC-LAPS: The importance of sufficient net deep convection and system scale cyclonic absolute vorticty
Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and N. E. Davidson and M. T. Montgomery

Presentation PDF (806.4 kB)

3:45 PM
14A.2
Validation of TC-LAPS structure forecasts of some significant 2004–2005 US hurricanes
Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. J. Rikus, R. A. Dare, C. I. W. Tingwell, and H. C. Weber
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (424.1 kB)

4:00 PM
14A.3
Statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecast improvements using GOES and aircraft reconnaissance data
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (92.5 kB)

4:15 PM
14A.4
On the Calculation of Vertical Shear: An Operational Perspective
Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and C. Sisko and R. D. Knabb
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (101.9 kB)

4:30 PM
14A.5
Recent updates to SHIPS-MI
Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Cecil

Presentation PDF (270.3 kB)

4:45 PM
14A.6
On the pressure-wind relationship in tropical cyclones
Harry C. Weber, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (269.8 kB)

5:00 PM
14A.7
Estimating the likelihood of rapid intensification in the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins using SHIPS model data
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (468.7 kB)

5:15 PM
14A.8
Equilibrium translation model – a key to prediction of tropical hurricane intensity
Irakli G. Shekriladze, Georgian Technical Univ., Tbilisi, Georgia

Presentation PDF (291.8 kB)

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