Prediction of tropical cyclone track forecast error for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma

Consensus tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast aids formed using TC track forecasts from regional and global numerical weather prediction models have become increasingly important in recent years as guidance to TC forecasters at both the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A predicted consensus error (PCE) product was developed using a pool of predictors from the 2001-2004 seasons and installed on the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) at both NHC and JTWC. Using stepwise linear regression and the pool of predictors, regression models were found to predict consensus TC track forecast error for each combination of forecast length, consensus model, and basin. These regression models were then used to determine the radii of circular areas drawn around the consensus model forecast positions within which the verifying TC position was expected to be contained approximately 75% of the time. These circular areas were graphically displayed on the ATCF for use by the forecasters at NHC and JTWC during 2005. First, the performance of the PCE product for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma is examined by determining the percent of time the verifying TC position was contained within the circular area drawn around the consensus forecast position. Then, its performance is more closely examined for various length forecasts verifying at landfall for the three hurricanes.