Evaluating the Sensitivity of Convection Forecasts with Large Synoptic Forcing During MPEX
After providing a brief overview of the ensemble-based sensitivity technique, we will use this method to determine how uncertainty in the upstream trough, dry line, southerly return flow, etc. at 1200 UTC impact subsequent forecast metrics related to convective initiation later in the day (i.e., area-average precipitation or vertical kinetic energy). Preliminary analysis suggests that convective forecasts over Oklahoma during the 19 May case are sensitive to the southern edge of the upstream trough over the Rockies, even though this trough passes to the north of Oklahoma in the forecast, and to the amount of poleward moisture advection over central Texas and Oklahoma on the morning before the convective outbreak. For the 30 May case, the largest sensitivity is also associated with the upstream upper trough, with comparatively smaller sensitivity to the lower tropospheric wind and moisture fields. The relationship between the regions of sensitivity and MPEX dropsondes will also be discussed.