27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Opening Remarks

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Cochairs: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

Session 1

Towards a Weather Ready Nation

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

8:45 AM

1.1

Building a Weather-Ready Nation—Taking Forecasts Through the Last Mile (Invited Presentation)

Louis W. Uccellini, Director, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1.2

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center: Current and Future Science Challenges in Pursuit of a Weather Ready Nation

Russell S. Schneider, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.3

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): A Proposed Next-Generation Hazardous Weather Forecasting & Communication Paradigm

Lans P. Rothfusz, NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. S. Schneider, T. M. Smith, C. D. Karstens, and T. L. Hansen

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 2

Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL

10:30 AM

2.1

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh: The Operational Implementation and Ongoing Research

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, E. P. James, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, and J. M. Brown

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2.2

Convective Scale Forecast for Day Two from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh

Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander and S. Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2.3

Performance of the New NCEP/EMC High-Resolution Window and NAM CONUS Nest Models for Operational Severe Weather Forecasting Applications at the Storm Prediction Center

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, P. Marsh, M. Pyle, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, E. Rogers, J. Carley, and G. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2.4

The Real-time National Severe Storms Laboratory 4-km WRF Model Ensemble

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; and J. S. Kain, S. R. Dembek, K. H. Knopfmeier, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., and P. T. Marsh

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2.5

Combining Probabilistic Ensemble Information from the Environment with Simulated Storm Attributes to Generate Calibrated Probabilities of Severe Weather Hazards

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (865.3 kB)

11:45 AM

2.6

Deriving Hourly Severe Weather Probabilities from Convection Allowing Ensembles

James Correia Jr., NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, C. D. Karstens, P. Marsh, and D. A. Imy

Recorded Presentation

Monday Lunch: UW-Madison SSEC/CIMSS-Sponsored Box Lunch

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Cochairs: Wayne F. Feltz, University of Wisconsin - Madison; Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Unviersity of Wisconsin

12:00 PM

Introductory Remarks

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

Blogging at CIMSS: Short Compelling Stories using Satellite Observations. Scott Lindstrom and Scott Bachmeier (UW-CIMSS)

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

Supporting Unmanned Global Hawk Science Missions into Hurricanes with Tailored Satellite Products. Sarah Griffin and Christopher Velden (UW-CIMSS), Ed Zipser, Dan Cecil and Scott Braun (NASA)

Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM

Flood Spatiotemporal Decision-Making: Heavy Rainfall System Modes and the Impacts on Community Response Actions. Shane Hubbard (UW-CIMSS)

Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM

Exploiting Satellite Data for Increasing the Lead-time of Severe Weather Warnings. Mike Pavolonis (NOAA/NESDIS), John Cintineo and Justin Sieglaff (UW-CIMSS), Dan Lindsey (NOAA/NESDIS)

Recorded Presentation

Session 3A

Use of Satellites in Understanding and Predicting Severe Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Wayne Feltz, Univ. of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

3A.1

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System of Systems for Total Lightning

Steven J. Goodman, NOAA/NESDIS/GOES-R Program Office, Greenbelt, MD; and R. J. Blakeslee, W. J. Koshak, D. Buechler, L. Carey, T. Chronis, D. Mach, M. Bateman, H. Peterson, E. W. McCaul Jr., G. T. Stano, P. M. Bitzer, S. D. Rudlosky, and K. Cummins

Recorded Presentation
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3A.2

Results from the GOES-R Proving Ground Portion of the 2014 HWT Spring Experiment

William Line, NWS, Pueblo, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (613.4 kB)

2:00 PM

3A.3

Advanced infrared sounder cloud detection and cloud-clearing and its impact on radiance assimilation in NWP

Pei Wang, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Li, J. Li, T. J. Schmit, and Z. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3A.4

Use of NDVI Satellite Data to Identify and Document Destructive Hail Swaths

Ryan J. Connelly, NOAA, Valparaiso, IN; and K. Gallo and P. N. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

NOAA/CIMSS Prob Severe Model: Integrating Remotely Sensed Observations of Deep Convection

Justin Sieglaff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. J. Pavolonis, J. L. Cintineo, D. T. Lindsey, and E. Loken

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.6

Using GOES-R Demonstration Products to Bridge the Gap Between Severe Weather Watches and Warnings for the 20 May 2013 Moore, OK Tornado Outbreak

Chad M. Gravelle, NWS Operations Proving Ground/CIMSS, Kansas City, MO; and R. A. Petersen, J. Mecikalski, W. Line, J. Sieglaff, and G. T. Stano

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Modeling of Storm and Tornado Dynamics Part 1

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Daniel Dawson, Purdue University

1:30 PM

3B.1

Impact of increasing low-level shear on supercells during the evening transition

Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3B.2

Simulation of Near-surface Mesocyclogenesis during Mergers between Mature and Nascent Supercells

Ryan M. Hastings, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and Y. P. Richardson and P. M. Markowski

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (533.2 kB)

2:00 PM

3B.3

Genesis and maintenance of a long-track EF5 tornado embedded within a simulated supercell

Leigh Orf, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI; and R. B. Wilhelmson, L. J. Wicker, B. D. Lee, and C. A. Finley

Audio File

3B.4

The Role of Surface Drag in Tornadogenesis: Idealized Supercell Simulations

2:15 PM

3B.4A

What makes the sickle hodograph special?

Casey Webster, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski and Y. Richardson

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.5

Numerical Simulation of the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba City Supercell Tornado: Generation Mechanisms of a Tornado

Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.6

Formation of intense vortical circulations through a vortex sheet roll-up process: applications to surface tornadogenesis

Scott T. Trevorrow, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, L. Odell, and M. L. Buker

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 1

Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction for Understanding and Predicting Severe Convection and Tornadoes Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

1

Assimilation of convective initiation information derived from GOES satellite data into the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast systems

Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, C. Alexander, M. Hu, H. Lin, and J. Mecikalski

Handout (4.3 MB)

2

Sensitivity of bow-echo forecasts to ensemble and model configuration

John Lawson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr.

3

Examining the Sensitivity of Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing on Simulations of Cool Season Severe Thunderstorms in the Southeast United States

Matthew D. Flournoy, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. E. Cohen, M. C. Coniglio, and P. Marsh

Handout (9.0 MB)

4

Forcing Mechanisms of Internal Rear-Flank Downdraft Momentum Surges in the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas Supercell

Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. C. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, C. K. Potvin, and D. C. Dowell

Handout (21.1 MB)

5

Sensitivity of Assimilating Cloud Water Path as a Function of Horizontal Localization Radius

Kyle Chudler, University of Michigan, Ann, MI; and T. A. Jones

6

Verifying low-level and midlevel rotation in convection-permitting ensemble forecasts

Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and G. Romine

7

Post-Processing of Canadian Regional-Scale NWP to Develop First-Guess Forecasts of Thunderstorm and Severe Weather Threat Areas

Neil M. Taylor, EC, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and W. R. Burrows and D. M. L. Sills

Manuscript (10.9 MB)

Handout (1.0 MB)

7A

Assimilation of satellite and radar observations during a convection-resolving Observing System Simulation Experiment

Rebecca M. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, T. A. Jones, S. Koch, L. J. Wicker, and D. J. Stensrud

Poster Session 2

Modeling of Storm and Tornado Dynamics Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

8

Objective Identification of Supercellular Internal Momentum Surges Using Idealized Simulations

Matthew C. Mahalik, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

9

Applications of Statistical Mechanics of Vortex Gases to Tornadogenesis

Douglas P. Dokken, University of Saint Thomas, Saint Paul, MN; and P. Bělík, K. Scholz, M. M. Shvartsman, C. K. Potvin, B. A. Dahl, and A. McGovern

Handout (1.8 MB)

10

Simulating a convective event with "tornado-preventing" walls

Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Handout (5.8 MB)

11

Toward understanding the role of shear instability in tornadogenesis: The origins of vortex sheets along supercell gust fronts that precede low-level mesocyclogenesis

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson and G. Bryan

12

Does wind shear cause hydrometeor size sorting?

Daniel Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. R. Mansell and M. R. Kumjian

13

Investigation of Vortex Profiles via Vortex Mergers

Pavel Bělík, Augsburg College, Minneapolis, MN; and H. Kang, E. Winegar, D. P. Dokken, K. Scholz, and M. M. Shvartsman

Handout (2.0 MB)

14

Idealized Numerical Experiments on Tornadogenesis in Horizontally Heterogeneous Environments

Tetsuya Kawano, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and T. Honda

15

Tornadogenesis and Tornadogenesis Failure in Simulated Supercells

Jason Naylor, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. S. Gilmore

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

16

High-resolution simulations of the tornado core using the Fiedler-chamber configuration with turbulence parameterizations

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and N. A. Dahl and G. H. Bryan

17

Super High-Resolution Simulation of the Fine-Scale Tornado Structure

Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

18

On the Mechanisms of Rain Formation in a Simulation of an Idealized Supercell

Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Z. J. Lebo and H. Morrison

19

Axisymmetric Solutions in the Models of Tornadogenesis

Mikhail M. Shvartsman, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN; and P. Bělík, D. P. Dokken, and K. Scholz

20

The impact of hodograph shape on hail production in simulated supercell storms

Eli J. Dennis, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian

Manuscript (5.6 MB)

Poster Session 3

Use and Validation of Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

21

Environmental parameters associated with tornado warned and missed tornado events at WFO Peachtree City

Alexander R. Gibbs, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and S. E. Nelson and S. A. Listemaa

22

Findings from the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment

Christopher D. Karstens, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. J. Stumpf, D. M. Kingfield, C. Ling, L. Hua, T. M. Smith, J. Correia Jr., K. M. Kuhlman, K. L. Ortega, C. J. Melick, and L. P. Rothfusz

Handout (3.0 MB)

23

Public Reaction to Impact Based Warnings During an Extreme Hail Event in Abilene, Texas

Mike Johnson, NOAA/NWS, San Angelo, TX; and L. Myers, J. Dunn, V. Brown, H. Guerrero, and S. Lyons

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

24

Tornadic Events During UNSTABLE: Use of Supplemental Soundings

Robyn Dyck, EC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and J. Hanesiak, N. Taylor, and D. Sills

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (938.4 kB)

25

The influence of weather on Twitter discourse of #ClimateChange and #GlobalWarming

Kyle S. Griffin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. K. Yeo, Z. Handlos, A. Karambelas, L. Y. F. Su, J. Doolen, and D. Brossard

26

Analysis of Convective Clouds viewed from GOES During DC3

Andrew Heidinger, NOAA, Madison, WI; and S. Wanzong and A. Walther

27

Communicating Timely Information on the Evolving Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) using Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Sounders: Application to El Reno Event

Jessica M. Gartzke, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

Handout (3.5 MB)

28

Using 2011–2014 SSEO verification metrics to assess uncertainty in severe weather forecasts

Pamela Eck, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and J. Correia Jr.

29

Probabilistic Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall using Evolutionary Program Ensembles

Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI

30

The Development of Severe Convection Along a Dry Line in Northern Arizona

David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

31

A Real-Time High-Resolution Analysis and Short-Term Forecast System for Severe Weather in the Dallas/Fort Worth Testbed

Keith A. Brewster, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas, J. A. Brotzge, and F. H. Carr

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

32

A Comparison of Two Significant Severe Weather Events: Communication Strategies and Public Response Surrounding the 20 and 31 May 2013 Central Oklahoma Tornadoes

Marcus D. Austin, NOAA, Norman, OK; and M. B. Scotten, J. Kurtz, and M. Day

33

Nowcasting with the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)

Hongli Jiang, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, and Z. Toth

34

Hazard Services: An early look at the NOAA/NWS next generation warning tool in an operational environment

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE

35

Application of Optical Flow Techniques to Rainfall Nowcasting

Wang-Chun Woo, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. K. Wong

Handout (8.5 MB)

36

An Evaluation of the Potential Impact of SAILS on the Warning Decision Making of the 31 May 2013 El Reno, OK Storm

Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and M. D. Austin

Manuscript (5.4 MB)

37

The Utility of Convection-allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Cool Season Severe Weather Events from the SPC Perspective

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (617.3 kB)

38

Probabilistic Tornado Warning Plumes

Mark J. Mitchell, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

Manuscript (322.3 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

39

Solar radiation error research of sounding temperature sensor

Wei Dai Sr., Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, nanjing, China

40

The Multiple-Radar/Multiple-Sensor Severe Weather Products Best Practices Experiment in the HWT

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue, R. A. Prentice, M. Elliott, and D. M. Kingfield

41

Comparing the NSSL-WRF Model and Convection-allowing Versions of UKMET's Unified Model during the 2013 and 2014 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiments

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; and S. M. Willington, D. Suri, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, K. H. Knopfmeier, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, H. Lean, N. Roberts, M. Weeks, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, C. D. Karstens, P. T. Marsh, J. Correia Jr., and S. R. Dembek

42

The Use of Convection-Allowing Models to Improve Threat Assessment Associated with Nocturnal Supercells

Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and J. M. Boustead

43

An Overview of CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast for the 2014 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Fanyou Kong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, F. Shen, A. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and C. J. Melick

Handout (668.8 kB)

44

A comparison of grid-point and object-based updraft helicity probabilities for severe weather forecasting

James Correia Jr., NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK

45

The 3 May 2013 tornadic supercell in the Po River Valley, Italy: a case study for evaluating WRF-ARW at convection-allowing scale in the 24h forecasting range

Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and R. Ferretti

46

An Overview of the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, A. J. Clark, J. Correia Jr., K. H. Knopfmeier, C. J. Melick, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, Y. Wang, Y. Jung, and S. M. Willington

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

47

Evaluation of One-Hour Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts Issued during the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. A. Imy, C. D. Karstens, A. Clark, J. Correia Jr., and C. J. Melick

48

Verification of Earth Network's Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts and NWS Warnings

Rebecca E. DiLuzio, Millersville University, Coopersburg, PA; and T. C. Meyer, K. M. Kuhlman, and M. Elliott

Session 4A

Climate and Tornadoes

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State University

4:30 PM

4A.1

Monthly US temperatures and tornado occurrence

Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin and P. Marsh

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.2

The 20 May 2013 Oklahoma tornado outbreak under pseudo-global warming

Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and K. Hoogewind, M. E. Baldwin, and S. Lasher-Trapp

5:00 PM

4A.3

Central American biomass burning smoke impacts on tornado severity in the US: Mechanism and multiple episode analysis

Pablo E. Saide, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and S. N. Spak, B. Pierce, J. Otkin, T. K. Schaack, A. Heidinger, A. Da Silva, M. Kacenelenbogen, and G. Carmichael

4A.4

What can wildland fire research learn from severe storms?

5:15 PM

4A.4A

Mesoscale Observations: GOES-14 Imager 1-Minute Rapid Scan Data

Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Madison, WI; and M. M. Gunshor, J. Sieglaff, W. Line, A. S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, D. T. Lindsey, F. Alsheimer, D. B. Radell, R. M. Rabin, C. M. Gravelle, K. Bah, and S. J. Goodman

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4A.5

Evaluation of Severe Weather Parameter Sensitivity to Soil Moisture during Strongly Forced Dynamic Weather Systems across the Central Plains

Marc Chenard, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and P. N. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

Paper 4A.6 has been moved. New paper number is 3B.4A

5:45 PM

4A.6A

A Glimpse into Modeled Changes of Severe Thunderstorm Occurrence Using Dynamical Downscaling

Victor A. Gensini, College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, IL; and T. Mote

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Severe Weather Warning Research and Communication

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kimberly E. Klockow, CIMMS

4:30 PM

4B.1

The 2013/2014 Experimental Warning Program at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Kristin M. Kuhlman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. S. Garfield, D. M. Kingfield, C. D. Karstens, W. Line, K. L. Ortega, T. M. Smith, and G. J. Stumpf

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.2

The Role of the Human in Issuing Severe Weather Warnings

Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Omaha, NE; and B. E. Mayes

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.3

Moving beyond “Have you experienced a tornado?”: Improving how we measure people's past tornado experiences

Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

5:15 PM

4B.4

Fact, Fiction, or Somewhere in Between: Assessing the Quality of Severe Weather Information in the Twitterverse

Makenzie J. Krocak, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and H. E. Brooks and J. T. Ripberger

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4B.5

Connecting the Dots: A Communications Model of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team During the 15 May 2013 Tornado Outbreak

Dennis E. Cavanaugh, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Fort Worth, TX; and M. Huffman, J. L. Dunn, and M. Fox

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (524.2 kB)

5:45 PM

4B.6

Tornado Environments, Metrics, and Warnings: Lessons from a Ten-Year Climatology

Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (735.0 kB)

Book Signing

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Ice Breaker Reception

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 5

Warn on Forecast

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Therese Ladwig, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Sciences Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

9:00 AM

5.1

Description of a WRF-based Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Warn-on-Forecast

Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, and G. J. Creager

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5.2

Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting for Warn-on-Forecast

Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, and G. J. Creager

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5.3

Assimilating radar and satellite data in an operational environment for Warn-on-Forecast

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, G. J. Creager, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5.4

Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm-Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

Jeffrey D. Duda, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, F. Kong, M. Xue, and J. Berner

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

5.5

Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts of the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in Alabama, Part 1

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. C. Dowell, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

5.6

Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts of the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in Alabama, Part 2

David C. Dowell, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and N. Yussouf, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 6

Numerical Weather Prediction of Severe Storms

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Speakers: Louis J. Wicker, NSSL/NOAA; Morris Weisman, NCAR

Chair: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

11:00 AM

6.1

Severe Storm NWP: the Good, the Bad and a Possible Future (Invited Presentation)

Louis J. Wicker, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and M. Weisman

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 7A

Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robert Trapp, University of Illinois

1:30 PM

7A.1

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, C. Schwartz, and K. Manning

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.2

MPEX: Improving forecasts of severe convective storms through targeted observations

Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Weisman, R. Torn, and C. S. Schwartz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Convection Forecasts with Large Synoptic Forcing During MPEX

Ryan D. Torn, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and G. Romine

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

Upscale Feedbacks During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment

Joseph M. Woznicki, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

Overview and preliminary results of mobile upsonde operations during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. S. Schumacher, R. J. Trapp, D. J. Stensrud, and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

Comparison of Operational Model Analyses with MPEX Dropsondes

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Weisman

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Lightning Research

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Matthew R. Kumjian, The Pennsylvania State University

1:30 PM

7B.1

Lightning Jump Integration into the Severe Weather Warning Process

Elise V. Schultz, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. J. Schultz, S. M. Stough, T. Chronis, L. Carey, K. M. Kuhlman, K. L. Ortega, B. M. Williams, A. B. Young, and S. J. Goodman

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Can total lightning data help give warning lead time for non-supercell tornadoes?

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and D. Bikos, R. Mazur, R. Cox, D. Barjenbruch, R. Kleyla, and R. Glancy

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.3

Development of a calibrated proxy for thunderstorm occurrence using reanalysis and lightning data

Anja T. Westermayer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and G. Pistotnik and P. Groenemeijer

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7B.4

Thunderstorm Electrification and Kinematics As Seen Through Ensemble Lightning Flash Properties

Phillip J. Ware, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. C. Bruning, V. C. Sullivan, D. R. MacGorman, and K. M. Kuhlman

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

Evidence for eddy-scale control of lightning flash sizes using the West Texas Lightning Mapping Array and TTUKa radars

Eric C. Bruning, Texas Tech Univ, Lubbock, TX; and V. C. Sullivan, V. Salinas, and P. J. Ware

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

Surprising sensitivity of lightning and related storm processes to environment on 4 June 2012 in West Texas

Vanna C. Sullivan, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. C. Bruning, B. C. Ancell, and A. E. Reinhart

Poster Session 4

Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction for Understanding and Predicting Severe Convection and Tornadoes Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

49

OSSE Simulations of Targeted Aircraft Observations in Supercell Thunderstorms

George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

50

Using radar reflectivity as a state variable in DART: Is it optimal?

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

51

A Preliminary Investigation into the Influence of Initial Condition and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Uncertainty upon the Intrinsic Predictability of Convection Initiation

Bryan M. Burlingame, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn

52

Removing acoustic-mode pressure oscillations from storm-scale EnKF analyses

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

53

Convection Initiation within Convection-allowing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts

David J. Stensrud, Penn State University, University Park, PA

Poster Session 5

Modeling of Storm and Tornado Dynamics Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

54

Comparison of 24 May 2011 Genesis and Evolution of Simulated Tornado-Like Vortices Using Various Microphysics Schemes with 1-km Grid Resolution

Derek R. Stratman, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (5.3 MB)

55

Simulated Effects of an Isolated Supercell on the Evolution of a Nearby Squall Line

Jacey Wipf, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. J. French

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

56

Localized vorticity enhancement through superhelical coherent structure in the Goshen tornadic supercell

Marcus L. Büker, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL; and L. Odell, G. J. Tripoli, and S. T. Trevorrow

57

Effects of environmental shear and buoyancy on simulated supercell interactions

Nathan Wendt, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett and R. B. Wilhelmson

Handout (2.0 MB)

Poster 58 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.2A.

59

Synoptic Influence on High Shear, Low CAPE Convective Events

Jessica R. King, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. Parker

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

60

The effects of urban environments on the dynamics of a WRF-simulated supercell thunderstorm

Larissa J. Reames, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and D. Parsons

61

Sensitivity of Vortex Production to Small Environmental Perturbations in High-Resolution Supercell Simulations

Brittany A. Dahl, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, L. J. Wicker, A. McGovern, and R. A. Brown

62

Environmental Factors Affecting Shear Line Tornadogenesis in 30 September 2003 Tyrrhenian Sea Waterspouts

Eric Loken, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

63

Supercell vorticity: structures and vertical communication mechanisms

Luke Odell, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, M. L. Buker, and S. T. Trevorrow

Poster Session 6

Use and Validation of Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

64

A Preliminary Investigation into the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Alexandra M. Keclik, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and B. M. Burlingame, C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn

65

Using near-storm soundings from the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment to analyze convection permitting model accuracy: 28 May 2013

Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

66

Hail, Tornadoes and the Climate System: Analyzing the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on Interannual Variability

John T. Allen, Columbia Univ./International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett and A. H. Sobel

67

Anticipating Societal Impacts of Severe Convective Weather Using SPC Forecast Products

Matthew D. Brothers, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. T. Marsh

68

Observed and Predicted Changes in the Frequency of Extreme PWV Events and the Potential Societal Implications

Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. A. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

69

Examining the Impact of Climate Change upon Severe Convective Storms in the United States through High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling

Kimberly Hoogewind, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

70

Probabilistic Modeling of the European Severe Thunderstorm Climate

Georg Pistotnik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Kühne, A. T. Westermayer, and H. Rust

Handout (2.3 MB)

71

Hail Size Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques Applied to Storm Scale Ensembles

David John Gagne II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, J. Brotzge, J. Correia Jr., M. C. Coniglio, and M. Xue

Handout (1.5 MB)

72

On the usage of composite parameters in High-Shear, Low-CAPE environments

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Manuscript (9.2 MB)

Handout (9.2 MB)

73

The Washington D.C. Lightning Mapping Array (DCLMA)

74

Verification of Sounding Parameters from the RAP and the RAP-Based and RUC-Based SFCOA Products

Lauren Michelle Wigley, University of Oklahoma/SPC Career Experience Program, Moore, OK; and R. M. Mosier

Manuscript (829.1 kB)

75

Implementation of Tornadic Debris Signature Guidance Using Polarimetric WSR-88D Data

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, D. M. Kingfield, S. K. Degelia, and K. L. Ortega

Handout (6.0 MB)

76

Exploration of the NSSL Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) Product for Verifying Experimental Hail Forecasts in the 2014 Spring Forecasting Experiment

Christopher J. Melick, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss

Manuscript (855.2 kB)

Handout (667.7 kB)

77

Examination of the predictability of the September 2013 northeastern Colorado floods by the HRRR model

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, E. P. James, and D. T. Lindsey

78

Going Old School—Using raw surface observations and objective analysis to accurately forecast a tornado environment

K. Bruce Haynie, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. R. Cobb and M. R. Conder

Handout (3.3 MB)

79

The Utility of Vertically Integrated Graupel as a Max Hail Size Predictor

Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair

Manuscript (442.7 kB)

80

Seasonal Prediction of Severe Convective Weather Parameters using the Climate Forecast System Version 2

Adam J. Stepanek, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

81

Evaluation of SPC Outlooks using the Symmetric Extremal Dependency Index

Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and H. E. Brooks

Handout (2.3 MB)

Poster 82 is now paper 8A.2A

83

A Lightning Mapping Array in Southern Ontario, Canada, and Uses for Severe Weather Nowcasting

David M. L. Sills, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and Y. H. Yang and P. I. Joe

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

84

The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Recent Updates and Extension to Forecasts of CG Lightning

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and T. Chronis, J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (1.3 MB)

85

Analysis and Verification of 1300 UTC Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks

Geoffrey Marion, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois; and J. W. Frame

Manuscript (357.0 kB)

Handout (687.4 kB)

86

Evaluation of Severe Weather Outbreak Diagnoses for Multiple Ranking Indices

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. N. Kabeiseman and M. J. Brown

Verification of Earth Network's Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts

Session 8A

Data Assimilation for Understanding and Predicting Severe Convection and Tornadoes Part 1

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Glen Romine, NCAR

4:15 PM

8A.1

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Multiple Great Plains Convective Events

Brock Burghardt, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

8A.2

High-resolution Ensemble Analysis and Prediction of the 19 May 2013 Norman-Shawnee Supercell and Tornadic Circulation

4:30 PM

8A.2A

High resolution UM simulations of supercell storms

Kirsty E. Hanley, MetOffice, Reading, United Kingdom; and H. Lean

4:45 PM

8A.3

Warn-on-Forecast sensitivity experiments with the 19 May 2013 Norman-Shawnee, OK, tornadic supercell

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, M. M. French, and D. W. Burgess

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

8A.4

Multi-Scale Data Assimilation of the 13 June 2010 Tornadic Supercell Storm Environment during VORTEX2

Therese E. Ladwig, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Sciences Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, CO; and G. Romine, L. J. Wicker, and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

8A.5

Investigation of a cell merger accompanying cyclic tornado production

Robin L. Tanamachi, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (11.4 MB)

5:30 PM

8A.6

Ensemble forecasts of the 17 November 2013 Illinois tornado outbreak using EnKF radar and surface data assimilation

Ryan A. Sobash, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Convective Initiation

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center

4:15 PM

8B.1

Examination of Convection Initiation using MPEX Soundings and Convection-Permitting Simulations

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych and G. Romine

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

8B.2

On the Scale and Magnitude of Precursors to Simulated Isolated Convective Initiation

Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim and C. F. Mass

Recorded Presentation

Handout (8.0 MB)

4:45 PM

8B.3

The sensitivity of convection initiation to wind shear, lapse rate, and relative humidity in the active cloud-bearing layer

Adam Houston, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

8B.4

Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivity of Dryline Convective Initiation

Aaron J. Hill, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.0 MB)

8B.5

An Expanded Conceptual Model for Dryline Convective Initiation

5:15 PM

8B.5A

A Climatology of Elevated Convection Initiation at Night: Severe and non-severe storms

Dylan W. Reif, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

8B.6

Recent Improvements in Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Forecasts of Severe Convective Storm Initiation

Jaymes S. Kenyon, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. Brown, C. R. Alexander, S. Benjamin, D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, E. P. James, T. G. Smirnova, and S. S. Weygandt

Recorded Presentation

Session

Tribute Session

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms )

7:15 PM

Tribute

Recorded Presentation

Storm Video Night

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 9

Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells Part 1

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Michael M. French, NOAA/NSSL

9:00 AM

9.1

Rapid Environmental Changes Observed by Remote Sensing Systems in the Local Vicinity of an Unusual Colorado Tornado

Steven Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. Jiang and R. Ware

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9.2

Dual-Doppler and thermodynamic analysis of a non-tornadic severe storm merger observed on 11 June 2009 during VORTEX2

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman, Y. P. Richardson, P. M. Markowski, J. Marquis, and P. Robinson

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9.3

A comparison of the evolution of strong low-level rotation associated with tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure observed by a rapid-scan, Doppler radar

Jana Houser, Ohio University, Athens, OH; and H. B. Bluestein and J. C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

9.4

Insights into Tornado Structure Afforded by High-frequency Mobile Radar

Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and T. R. Cermak, R. S. Metzger, A. Reinhart, and P. Skinner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (12.0 MB)

10:00 AM

9.5

Evolution of angular momentum within observed tornadic mesocyclones

James Marquis, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. Richardson, J. Wurman, and K. Kosiba

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

9.6

Exploring Tornado Maintenance with Observations and Idealized Simulations

Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. M. Markowski, J. N. Marquis, and J. M. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

Book Signing

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Coffee Break

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 10

Radar Observations of Severe Storms

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Speakers: Howard Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma; Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research

Chair: Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

11:00 AM

10.1

Radar observations of severe convective storms and tornadoes: A recent historical perspective (Invited Presentation)

Howard Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Wurman

Lunch Break

Student Luncheon

Location: Senate (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 11A

Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells Part 2

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ.

11A.1

Observations from VORTEX2: The intensification of the Goshen County, Wyoming tornado (05 June 2009)

1:30 PM

11A.1A

An Observational Analysis of Potential Terrain Influences on Tornado Behavior

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (4.5 MB)

1:45 PM

11A.2

The prestorm environment of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell estimated from WSR-88D and TDWR radar, and GOES satellite data

Robert M. Rabin, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Q. Xu, K. Nai, S. albers, H. Jiang, and T. J. Schmit

Manuscript (5.5 MB)

2:00 PM

11A.3

High Temporal Resolution Polarimetric Radar Observations of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle-Moore, Oklahoma EF-5 Tornado using the PX-1000

James M. Kurdzo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine, B. L. Cheong, and R. D. Palmer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.3 MB)

2:15 PM

11A.4

Radar Estimated Winds for the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado

Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, V. T. Wood, and V. Melnikov

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (702.9 kB)

2:30 PM

11A.5

In Situ and Radar Observations of the Low Reflectivity Ribbon

Casey B. Griffin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. C. Weiss, A. E. Reinhart, J. C. Snyder, H. B. Bluestein, J. M. Wurman, K. A. Kosiba, and P. Robinson

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

2:45 PM

11A.6

An overview of volumetric datasets collected during tornadogenesis using a mobile, rapid-scan, polarimetric Doppler radar: 2012–2014

Howard Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder, J. Houser, K. J. Thiem, and Z. B. Wienhoff

Session 11B

Analysis, Assimilation, Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL

1:30 PM

11B.1

Improving trajectory analyses using advection correction: Tests with a 30-m simulation of the 24 May 2011 El Reno, OK, supercell

Alan Shapiro, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Rahimi, C. K. Potvin, and L. Orf

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11B.2

Forecasting hail using a one-dimensional hail growth model inline within WRF

Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE; and C. Ziegler and A. Clark

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11B.3

Comparison of the Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells Intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010

Alicia Klees, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson and P. Markowski

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.6 MB)

11B.4 has been moved. New paper number is 7A

2:15 PM

11B.4A

An Examination of the 22 May 2014 Duanesburg, New York, Unexpected Tornadic Supercell

Brian Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. Vaughan, K. L. Corbosiero, R. A. Lazear, and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11B.5

Sensitivity of Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms to Horizontal Grid Resolution

Montgomery L. Flora, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and C. K. Potvin

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11B.6

Evaluating the Sensitivity of WRF Convection Forecasts in the Northern Great Plains on 11 June 2013 using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

Jeremy D. Berman, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, M. Weisman, and G. Romine

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 7

Climatologies of Severe Weather and Their Environments Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

87

The Increasing Efficiency of Tornado Days in the United States

James Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and S. Elsner

88

Reversible CAPE in Tropical Cyclone Tornado Regimes

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson

Manuscript (553.7 kB)

89

Demonstrating the Utility of Conditional Probabilities of Tornado Damage Rating in the Impact-Based Warning Era

Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson, A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, R. Wagenmaker, M. Hudson, and J. T. Ferree

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

90

Severe Weather Environments in Central Europe as characterized by proximity soundings

Tomas Pucik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, D. Ryva, and M. Kolar

91

Dynamical Downscaling of Major U.S. Tornado Outbreaks

Kimberly Hoogewind, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and V. A. Gensini

93

Climatology of tornadoes accompanied by typhoons

Masahiko Ebara, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa

Handout (1020.1 kB)

94

Development of a calibrated proxy for thunderstorm occurrence using lightning and reanalysis data

Anja T. Westermayer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and G. Pistotnik and P. Groenemeijer

95

A preliminary investigation of the effects of orography on the environments of convective storms in the eastern United States

Branden Thomas Katona, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Markowski

96

An Objective Climatology of Rotational Velocity of High Shear/Low CAPE Tornadic Storms in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

97

Environments Associated with Slow-Moving Supercells: Tornadic and Nontornadic

Jared W. Leighton, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair and J. M. Boustead

Handout (3.4 MB)

Poster Session 8

Mesoscale Convective Systems and Severe Weather Hazards Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

98

The Production of the Vertical Superposition of the Polar and Subtropical Jets during the May 2010 Nashville Flood

Andrew C. Winters, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

99

Dual-Doppler Analysis of a Nocturnal MCS in Central Oklahoma on 12 June 2014

Dylan W. Reif, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff, K. J. Thiem, and H. B. Bluestein

100

Structures and Environment of Extratropical Cyclones Cause a Tornado Outbreak

Eigo Tochimoto, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and H. Niino

101

An Examination of the Warning Decision Making Process, Mesoscale Environment, and Radar Analysis of the Northern Indiana/Northwest Ohio Derecho of 29 June 2012

Evan Bentley, NWSFO, Portland, OR; and J. Logsdon

Handout (2.5 MB)

102

Structure and Environment of Tornado-spawning Tropical Cyclones: Composite Analyses and Idealized Numerical Experiments

Kenta Sueki, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; and H. Niino

103

Identifying transverse banding and gravity waves by satellite in severe convective cells

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Scheele and W. F. Feltz

104

The 28 March 2014 Florida Panhandle Severe Squall Line and Accompanying Unusual Panama City Beach Surge Event

Alex J. Lamers, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Tallahassee, FL

105

A hydrometeorological investigation of two flash flood events at Caprock Canyons State Park in northwest Texas

Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. Cobb, G. Skwira, J. Lipe, and B. C. Ancell

106

Mechanisms for Organization and Echo Training in a Flash-Flood-Producing Mesoscale Convective System

John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and R. S. Schumacher

107

Severe thunderstorms and Flash Floods over Southwestern Québec on May 29th 2012

Michael Elliott, EC, Montréal, Quebec, Canada; and S. Mainville

Handout (2.0 MB)

108

The Tornadic Quasi-Linear Convective System over East-Central Wisconsin on 6–7 August 2013. Part 1: Environmental Setting and Radar Overview

Eugene S. Brusky, NOAA/NWS, Green Bay, WI; and M. Cellitti and S. Berschback

109

Storms in the time of drought—the June 28, 2012 derecho and beyond

Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT

110

Supercells and bow echoes in Rio Grande do Sul state, southern Brazil: selected case studies

Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and M. Ilha de Oliveira, E. Lima de Figueiredo, M. Machado Lopes, V. Anabor, and F. Puhales

111

Accuracy Analysis of Radar Rainfall Estimation Techniques about Heavy Rainfall Cases in Korea

Hye-Sook Park, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. K. Suk III, I. H. Cho, and J. S. Ko

Poster Session 9

Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells Part 1

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

112

A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 29 May 2013 Tornado Event across East-Central New York

Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and I. R. Lee

Manuscript (2.4 MB)

Handout (4.0 MB)

113

Observations of Wall Cloud Formation in Supercell Thunderstorms during VORTEX2

Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and E. Glidden and T. Nicholson

114

Dual-Doppler analyses of two tornadic supercells in central Oklahoma on 19 May 2013 using data from an X-band, mobile radar and an S-band, fixed-site radar

Zachary B. Wienhoff, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, J. C. Snyder, and J. Houser

115

Dual-Doppler Observations of the 6 June 2010 Nontornadic Supercell during VORTEX2

Zachary B. Wienhoff, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. W. Frame and M. B. Chasteen

Manuscript (845.7 kB)

116

An Analysis of Terminal Doppler Weather and Phased Array Radar Velocity and Reflectivity Signatures of the 20 May 2013, Moore, Oklahoma Tornado

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman, R. A. Brown, D. W. Burgess, D. L. Priegnitz, and C. D. Karstens

Manuscript (3.1 MB)

Handout (5.3 MB)

117

A Rare Tornado Merger Observed in the 24 May 2011 El Reno, Oklahoma, Supercell

Michael M. French, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. Skinner, L. J. Wicker, and H. B. Bluestein

118

Another Look at the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak

Jonathan Chamberlain, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD

119

Overview of the 22 July 2013 Northwestern Minnesota Nocturnal Tornado Event

Jeffrey A. Makowski, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Grand Forks, ND; and D. Kellenbenz and J. Kaiser

120

Overview of the 28-29 April 2014 Tennessee Valley Tornado Outbreak

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Murphy and K. Knupp

Manuscript (832.0 kB)

Handout (4.3 MB)

121

Several Convective Weather Events in Guilin China between 2013 and 2014

Xianghong Li, Guilin Meteorological Bureau, Guilin, China; and W. Liang

Manuscript (85.5 kB)

Handout (166.5 kB)

122

In-Situ Thermodynamic and Doppler Radar Observations of a Circulation within the Rear-Flank Downdraft of a Tornadic Supercell during VORTEX2 on 19 May 2010

Adam C. Springer, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

Manuscript (486.5 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

123

Doppler Radar Observations of Vortices in a Left-Moving Supercell Thunderstorm on 26 May 2009

Mark D. Savin, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

124

A Multiscale Analysis of the 29 May 2013 Severe Weather Outbreak near Albany, New York

Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and R. A. Lazear

125

Radar, Unmanned Aircraft System, and Surface Observations of Rear Flank Internal Momentum Surge Formation

Curtis J. Riganti, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

126

The Influence of Topography on the Barneveld Tornado Family that Occurred on June 8, 1984 in Southern Wisconsin

John D. Frye, Univeristy of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI; and A. G. Courtney

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

127

Fast scan radar observation of tornadic supercell in Tokyo during TOMACS

Eiichi Sato, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Kusunoki, C. Fujiwara, S. Saito, and Y. Shoji

128

An Unusual Tornado during the 1 June 2012 Tornado Outbreak in the WFO Baltimore/Washington Forecast Area

Matthew R. Kramar, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Coraopolis, PA

129

Alan R. Moller: Senior Forecaster, Photographer, and Storm Chaser

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and C. A. Doswell III, L. R. Lemon, G. Woodall, M. Lisius, and S. Barricklow

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

130

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Poster 131 has been moved. New paper number is 11B.4A

132

Verification of Multiple Doppler Radar Analysis to Retrieve Three-dimensional Wind Field with High-spatiotemporal Resolution Capabilities of X-band Radar Network in Japan

Ken-ichi Shimose, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Shimizu, T. Maesaka, K. Kieda, K. Iwanami, and D. I. Lee

133

Investigating the Role of Wave-like Reflectivity Segments during the 17 November 2013 EF-4 Washington, Illinois Tornado

Edward J. Shimon III, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Lincoln, IL

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

134

A Preliminary Study of the 16 June 2014 Tornadoes in Northeast Nebraska

Brian E. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and D. Nietfeld

Handout (6.9 MB)

135

Development of thunderstorm detection technique based on radar data over the Korean Peninsula

Se-Hee Ju, Korea Meteorological Administration, Dongjak-gu, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. S. Park, J. Kim, and J. S. Ko

136

An Evaluation of Normalized Rotation Vorticity Couplets to Assess Tornadic Mesocyclone Potential

T. J. Turnage, NOAA/NWS, Grand Rapids, MI

137

Errors in mobile mesonet observations of equivalent potential temperature and wind velocity: Results from the Airdata Verification and Integrated Airborne Tempest Experiment (AVIATE)

Adam Houston, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and R. Laurence III, T. W. Nichols, S. Waugh, B. Argrow, and C. L. Ziegler

Handout (3.1 MB)

Session 12A

Data Assimilation for Understanding and Predicting Severe Convection and Tornadoes Part 2

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robin Tanamachi, Purdue University

4:30 PM

12A.1

Multiple Doppler Analysis for 20 May 2013 tornadic supercell using a 3DVAR

Jidong Gao, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, A. Clark, and D. J. Stensrud

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.6 MB)

4:45 PM

12A.2

High-resolution Ensemble Prediction of the 31 May 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Supercell

Patrick Skinner, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, C. K. Potvin, and P. L. Heinselman

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

12A.3

Internal Momentum Surges in a High-Resolution Simulation of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell

Alexander D. Schenkman, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, D. Dawson, and M. Hu

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12A.4

Impact of Targeted Afternoon Radiosonde Observations on Convection-Permitting Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Convective Event in Oklahoma

Stacey M. Hitchcock, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio and K. H. Knopfmeier

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

12A.5

Impact of Phased Array Radar Observations on the Analyses and Forecasts of the 22 May 2011 Ada Supercell Storm

Jing Cheng, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, Y. Jung, D. J. Stensrud, M. Xue, and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Mesoscale Environments

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS

4:30 PM

12B.1

Efficiency of severe thunderstorm environments in the U.S

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and V. A. Gensini

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12B.2

High-Shear, Low-CAPE environments: What we know and where to go next

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (765.6 kB)

5:00 PM

12B.3

Objective classification of supercell environments using multivariate self-organizing maps for research and forecasting

Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. A. Jensen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.4 MB)

5:15 PM

12B.4

On the Usage of SPC Slight Risk Convective Outlooks to Identify Cases with Low Predictive Skill

Matthew Thomas Vaughan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

12B.5

A Review of Near Storm Environmental and Storm Structure Characteristics of Thunderstorms that Resulted in False Alarm Tornado Warnings Across Central and Eastern Iowa

Rodney A. Donavon, NWS, Johnston, IA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (449.6 kB)

SLS Women's Dinner

Location: Senate B (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 13

The 31 May 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Tornadoes: A tribute to Tim Samaras, Carl Young, and Paul Samaras

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

9:00 AM

13.1

Ground-based Damage Survey and Radar Analysis of the El Reno, Oklahoma Tornado

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and D. W. Burgess, G. S. Garfield, J. C. Snyder, R. Smith, D. Speheger, and H. Bluestein

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

9:15 AM

13.2

The El Reno Tornado: Mobile Polarimetric Radar Data and Photogrammetric Analysis

Roger Wakimoto, NSF, Arlington, VA; and N. T. Atkins, K. M. Butler, H. B. Bluestein, K. J. Thiem, J. C. Snyder, and J. Houser

9:30 AM

13.3

Aerial Damage Survey and High Resolution Dual-Polarization Radar Analysis of the 2013 El Reno Tornado

Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and R. Wakimoto, K. M. Butler, H. B. Bluestein, K. J. Thiem, J. C. Snyder, J. Houser, and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13.4

Rapid-scan, polarimetric, mobile, Doppler-radar observations of the formation, evolution, and structure of the El Reno tornado of 31 May 2013

Kyle J. Thiem, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, J. C. Snyder, and J. Houser

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

13.5

The El Reno Survey Project: Crowd-sourced Database Development, Synchronous Photogrammetric Observations and 3-D Mapping of the Largest Documented Tornado

Anton Seimon, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC; and J. T. Allen, T. Seimon, E. Edwards, S. Talbot, and D. Hoadley

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

13.6

Disaster Averted: Hypothetical Tornado Paths after the El Reno Tornado of 31 May 2013

Gabriel S. Garfield, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Wisconsin Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Panel Discussion 14

Enhanced Fujita Scale Forum

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Moderator: James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Warning Decision Training Division

Chair: Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

11:00 AM

PD14.1

EF-Scale Forum (Invited Presentation)

James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Warning Decision Training Branch, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 15A

Modeling of Storm and Tornado Dynamics Part 2

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University

1:30 PM

15A.1

Local roughness effects on tornado dynamics

David C. Lewellen, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

1:45 PM

15A.2

Dual-frequency simulations of radar observations of tornadoes

David J. Bodine, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Palmer, T. Maruyama, C. Fulton, and B. L. Cheong

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

2:00 PM

15A.4

The effect of barotropic vorticity in a supercell within unidirectional shear

Johannes Dahl, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15A.3

The Markowski and Richardson toy simulations revisited: what is the effect of surface drag?

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15A.5

Impacts of the storm-relative wind profile upon surface vorticity production in downdrafts

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15A.6

Internal storm dynamical processes leading to tornado genesis as revealed by numerical investigations

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Trevorow, L. Odell, and M. L. Buker

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kelly Lombardo, University of Connecticut

1:30 PM

15B.1

A Brief Overview of the History of Convective Lines and Bow Echoes from the 1950s to Now. A Review of the Advancement of Research of Convective Systems and Transfer of Knowledge to Operational Meteorology

Ron Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and A. D. Lese and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15B.2

Characteristics of Atypical Damaging Mesovortices in Quasi-Linear Convective Systems: Science and Warning Challenges

Matthew R. Kramar, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Coraopolis, PA; and S. Zubrick and J. E. Lee

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15B.3

The Spectrum of Progressive Derecho Formation Environments East of the Rockies

Corey T. Guastini, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15B.4

Life Cycle Characteristics of MCSs Tracked by Geostationary Satellite

Yufei Ai, Peking University, Beijing, China; and W. Li, Z. Meng, and J. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15B.5

The Response of a Simulated Supercell to Environmental Perturbations Induced by an Approaching Squall Line

Adam J. French, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15B.6

The Tornadic Quasi-Linear Convective System over East-Central Wisconsin on 6-7 August 2013. Part 2: Radar and Mesovortex Analysis

Eugene S. Brusky, NOAA/NWS, Green Bay, WI; and A. Wolf, R. W. Przybylinski, and E. Townsend Jr.

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Poster Session 10

Climatologies of Severe Weather and Their Environments Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

138

The distinction of environments conducive to different types of severe weather across Central Europe

139

A Climatology of Tornado Intensity Assessments

Stephen M. Strader, Villanova University, Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley, A. Irizarry, and S. Hall

140

Regionalization of Tornado Intensities Using Tornado Parameters and a Long-term High-resolution Reanalysis Data

Soichiro Sugimoto, Central Research Institute of Electrical Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and D. Nohara and H. Hirakuchi

Handout (268.0 kB)

Poster 141 is now paper number 8B.5A

142

Hail Climatology of Australia based on Lightning and Reanalysis

Christopher Neal Bednarczyk, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

Manuscript (920.0 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

143

A U.S. climatology of mesoscale convective systems: 1997–2013

Alex M. Haberlie, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and W. S. Ashley

144

A Radar-Based Hail Climatology for the CONUS (2000–2011)

Garrett William Layne, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, H. E. Brooks, and T. M. Smith

Handout (9.6 MB) Handout (9.6 MB)

145

Potential Applications of a CONUS Sounding Climatology Developed at the Storm Prediction Center

Jaret W. Rogers, SPC/NWS/NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and P. T. Marsh

Manuscript (755.2 kB)

146

A Radar-Based Storm Rotation Climatology for the CONUS (2000–2011)

Skylar S. Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. L. Ortega, D. M. Kingfield, and T. M. Smith

Handout (2.0 MB)

Poster Session 11

Mesoscale Convective Systems and Severe Weather Hazards Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

147

Microphysical Structures of Early-winter Snow Clouds during a Cold Air Outbreak of 23-25 December 2010

Kenji Suzuki, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi, Japan; and R. Watanabe, T. Kawano, and S. Sugimoto

148

The Tornado Outbreak of 17 November 2013: Operational Considerations for a High Impact Event and Anticipating Tornado Development within a QLCS

Jeff Logsdon, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Syracuse, IN; and C. Obergfell and T. Holsten

149

Hourly Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) Integration performance in Deep Convection Events for Southern Brazil

Leonardo Calvetti, SIMEPAR, Curitiba, Brazil; and R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, R. Toshio, and T. Noronha

150

A hybrid physical-statistical model for the estimation of insured loss from catastrophic severe storm activity over the United States and Canada

Eric D. Robinson, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Stransky, T. Doggett, C. Kafali, A. Dagnew, T. Girnius, and A. Reichert

151

IBHS Hail Field Research Project 2014 Case Studies: Comparison of Polarimetric Radar Observations and Surface Hail Characteristics

Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. Brown and I. M. Giammanco

152

The Interaction between QLCSs and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layers: A Process Study

Kelly Lombardo, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT

153

Storm Scale Dynamics of the 11 July 2011 Central Iowa Superbow

Jacob R., Beitlich, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Chanhassen, MN

154

A Polarimetric Investigation of the 3 June 2014 Severe Wind-Driven Hail Event

Michael A. Fowle, NOAA/NWS, Aberdeen, SD

155

Polarimetric Signatures Associated with Severe Bow-echoes

Taylor Trogdon, NOAA/NWS, Aberdeen, SD

156

WRF simulations of a rare springtime bow echo near the Great Salt Lake

Lin Zhao, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang, J. Jin, and A. Clark

157

Near-Real-Time Tracking of U.S. Flood-Related Fatalities—A Preliminary Outreach and Database Project

Todd J. Shea, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI; and T. J. Halbach

158

The Simulated Structure and Evolution of a Quasi-Idealized Warm Season Convective System with a Training Convective Line

John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and R. S. Schumacher

159

Ensemble-Based Analysis of the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Flood

Nathan A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and K. Brewster

Poster Session 12

Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells Part 2

Location: Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

160

An Analysis of the 27 April 2014 Severe Weather event: The Mayflower-Vilonia-El Paso tornadic storm

Christopher C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR; and J. A. Lewis III, W. Gilmore, B. D. Smith, C. Rickard, C. Dalton, and S. Clarke

161

A Parametric Wind-Pressure Relationship for Concentric Cyclostrophic Vortices

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. L. Tanamachi and L. W. White

Handout (2.0 MB) Handout (2.8 MB)

162

Damage Survey of the Mayflower-Vilonia, Arkansas Tornado

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and J. Robinson, E. Kiesling, and L. Tanner

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

163

Integrated Observations of a Near-Surface Based Supercell Located Behind a Gust Front

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Apke, K. S. Pennington, and K. Knupp

Manuscript (921.1 kB)

Handout (3.3 MB)

164

The 6 May 2010 Elevated Supercell During VORTEX2

Christopher W. MacIntosh, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

165

High-Resolution Phased Array Radar Observations of an Oklahoma Hailstorm Producing Extremely-Large Hail

Arthur Witt, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Manuscript (5.2 MB)

Handout (6.6 MB)

166

Polarimetric Analysis of Two Giant-Hail-Producing Supercells Observed by X-Band and S-band Radars

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, H. B. Bluestein, and S. F. Blair

Handout (6.7 MB)

167

An Examination of the Radar and Lightning Characteristics of the El Reno Tornado

Jenny Reed, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA; and J. M. Trostel

168

Some Considerations for the Use of High-Resolution Mobile Radar Data in EF-Scale Assessments

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

Handout (6.3 MB)

169

Development of Tornadic Debris Signature Guidance Using Polarimetric WSR-88D Data

Darrel M. Kingfield, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. K. Degelia, K. L. Ortega, J. C. Snyder, T. M. Smith, and A. V. Ryzhkov

Handout (4.2 MB)

170

The Art of Storm Surveying: Leveraging New Datasets to Document the 12 June 2013 Tornadoes

Kevin Skow, NOAA/NWS, Des Moines, IA

Manuscript (429.2 kB)

Handout (5.5 MB)

171

Analysis of Polarimetric Tornado Debris Signatures Observed by WSR-88D Associated with Significant Tornadoes

Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. R. Banghoff

172

Examination of debris loading effects on tornado dynamics using a Large-Eddy Simulation model and W-band mobile radar measurements

David J. Bodine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Maruyama, R. D. Palmer, C. Fulton, and H. B. Bluestein

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

173

Wilder Weather: Laura Ingalls Wilder and Her Famous Tornado

Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE

Handout (3.9 MB)

174

Rapid-Update Radar Observations of Downbursts

Charles M. Kuster, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman and T. J. Schuur

175

An Integrated Damage, Visual, and Radar Analysis of the 2013 Moore, Oklahoma EF5 Tornado

Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and K. M. Butler, K. R. Flynn, and R. Wakimoto

176

Low-level vertical wind structure in tornadoes

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

177

Measurement of Tsukuba tornado with particle image velocimetry

Koji Sassa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and H. Miyagi and H. Yamauchi

Handout (3.6 MB)

178

High-resolution Tornado Damage Surveys Compared to Doppler Velocity-derived Rotational Strength Parameters

Kiel L. Ortega, National Weather Center, Norman, OK ; and J. G. LaDue, T. C. Meyer, and D. M. Kingfield

Handout (1.9 MB)

179

The Doppler On Wheels NSF Lower Atmospheric Observing Facility

Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, P. Robinson, B. Pereira, R. Humphrey, and T. Meyer

180

Impacts of Radar Scan Time on Observed 31 May 2013 Supercell Evolution: An Operational Perspective

Charles Kuster, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman and M. D. Austin

181

An Observational Study of the Wessington Springs, South Dakota Tornadic Storm of 18 June 2014

Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and P. N. Schumacher

182

Investigating the Impact of Volume Update Frequency on Distributions of Polarimetric Radar Variables Compared to High Resolution Hail Reports

Kiel L. Ortega, National Weather Center, Norman, OK

Handout (1006.8 kB)

Session 16A

Severe Storm Microphysics and Dual-Polarization Observations

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jana Houser, Ohio University

4:15 PM

16A.1

Modified Microphysics for Use in High-Resolution NAM Forecasts

Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and B. S. Ferrier, J. Carley, E. Rogers, M. Pyle, S. J. Weiss, and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

16A.2

Analysis of vertical momentum forcing in real data numerical simulations of tornado-like vortices: sensitivity to microphysics and outflow thermodynamics

Daniel Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. Xue, A. M. Shapiro, and J. A. Milbrandt

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

16A.3

The Anatomy and Physics of ZDR Columns

Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. P. Khain, N. BenMoshe, E. Ilotovich, and A. V. Ryzhkov

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

16A.4

Hook Echo Raindrop Sizes Retrieved Using Mobile, Polarimetric Doppler Radar Observations

Michael M. French, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess, E. R. Mansell, and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

16A.5

Using the ZDR Column Product to Detect Updraft Development and Track Updraft Evolution

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, M. R. Kumjian, and J. C. Picca

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

16A.6

Impact of Drop Breakup and Hail Fall Speed on Supercell Cold Pools in a Multiparameter WRF/DART EnKF Simulation

Anthony E. Reinhart, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, D. C. Dowell, and H. Morrison

Recorded Presentation

Session 16B

Risk Assessment of Severe Weather Hazards

Location: University (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

4:15 PM

16B.1

IBHS Hail Field Research Program 2012–2014

Tanya M. Brown, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and I. M. Giammanco and M. R. Kumjian

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

4:30 PM

16B.2

Observations of Hailstone Sizes and Shapes from the IBHS Hail Measurement Program: 2012–2014

Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and T. M. Brown, M. R. Kumjian, and A. J. Heymsfield

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

16B.3

The Price of Disaster: Footing the Bill for Recent Insured Losses

Matthew J. Nielsen, Risk Management Solutions, Inc, Newark, CA; and K. W. Van Leer

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

16B.4

The Price of Disaster: Understanding Recent Insured Loss Trends

Kevin W. Van Leer, Risk Management Solutions, Inc, Newark, CA; and M. J. Nielsen and P. Datin

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

16B.5

Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and vulnerability assessment

Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz, K. Mulder, and G. Vaughan

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

16B.6

Implementation and Application of the EF-Scale in Canada

David M. L. Sills, EC, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; and P. J. McCarthy and G. Kopp

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (748.7 kB)

Registration

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 17

Climatologies of Tornadoes and Related Environments

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jeffrey C. Snyder, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL

8:30 AM

17.1

The Storm Prediction Center Tornadic Storm and Environment Database: Development and Application

Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and A. R. Dean

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (711.0 kB)

8:45 AM

17.3

The Tornado Climatology of Australia 1795–2013

John T. Allen, Columbia University/International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and E. R. Allen

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

17.4

Evaluation of the Relationship between NSSL MRMS Rotational Tracks and Tornadoes in Iowa

Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and G. J. Stumpf

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (577.1 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

9:15 AM

17.5

Characteristics of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1021.1 kB)

Coffee Break

Location: Second Floor Foyer (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Session 18

Climatologies of Severe Weather and Related Environments

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: James Wood, NOAA/NWS

9:45 AM

18.1

High-Resolution Hail Observations: Implications for NWS Warning Operations and Climatological Data

Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and D. E. Cavanaugh, J. M. Laflin, J. W. Leighton, K. J. Sanders, and K. L. Ortega

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

18.2

Severe Weather Parameter Reanalysis Project at the Storm Prediction Center

Phillip D. Bothwell, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, A. R. Dean, and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (246.2 kB)

10:15 AM

18.3

The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) as a data resource for severe weather research

Pieter Groenemeijer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and T. Kühne, G. Pistotnik, A. M. Holzer, and Z. Liang

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

18.4

Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities over Australia derived from two 5-member lag ensembles

Harald Richter, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

Closing Remarks, Curtis Alexander

Recorded Presentation

Concluding Remarks and Awards

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Cochairs: Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research

Conference Adjourns

Location: Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)

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