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Findings from the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment

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Monday, 3 November 2014
Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)
Christopher D. Karstens, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. J. Stumpf, D. M. Kingfield, C. Ling, L. Hua, T. M. Smith, J. Correia Jr., K. M. Calhoun, K. L. Ortega, C. J. Melick, and L. P. Rothfusz

Handout (3.0 MB)

The 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) experiment was held on 5-9 May, 19-23 May, and 2-6 June. This experiment focused on initial testing and evaluation of concepts to modernize the National Weather Service (NWS) watch/warning paradigm, as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) vision. Testing of these concepts was performed by NWS forecasters using a newly-developed web-based interface for rapidly prototyping methods for creating PHI, along with forecaster-generated PHI grids for tornado, wind, hail, and lightning hazards simultaneously displayed in AWIPS2 (in addition to radar data).

This presentation will provide a summary of what was learned from the following testbed activities:

  • Forecaster experimentation with creating, issuing, and updating probabilistic, feature-following objects (i.e., PHI threat objects) during real-time and displaced real-time severe weather events.
  • A comparison of warnings issued using WarnGEN/AWIPS2 vs. PHI threat objects for two displaced-realtime severe hail events.
  • Collaboration with the HWT Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) on short-term, regional probabilistic forecasts for individual hazards.

Each of these summaries will include situationally-dependent forecaster feedback that is being used to inform future prototype development.