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Environmental parameters associated with tornado warned and missed tornado events at WFO Peachtree City

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Monday, 3 November 2014
Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)
Alexander R. Gibbs, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and S. E. Nelson and S. A. Listemaa

National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warning false alarm ratio (FAR) for the United States has remained near constant at 0.72 for the last eight years and poses a significant challenge in improving the effectiveness of NWS warnings. In order to lower FAR, forecasters can strive to improve the warning method by improving their knowledge of the environment, radar data associated with tornadoes, or increasing the amount of tornado observations. This study examines the environmental data of every tornado warning and missed event in WFO Peachtree City's County Warning Area (CWA) from December 2007 to December 2013. By utilizing RUC model analysis, an environmental database was collected and analyzed to determine if there were environmental parameters that are associated with tornado warning false alarms. Results show that environmental data alone cannot help improve FAR in WFO Peachtree City's CWA.