Session: Use and Validation of Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts Part 1 (27th Conference on Severe Local Storms)

Monday, 3 November 2014: 3:00 PM-4:30 PM

Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers:

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO and Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO

Papers:

Environmental parameters associated with tornado warned and missed tornado events at WFO Peachtree City

Alexander R. Gibbs, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and S. E. Nelson and S. A. Listemaa

Findings from the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment

Christopher D. Karstens, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. J. Stumpf, D. M. Kingfield, C. Ling, L. Hua, T. M. Smith, J. Correia Jr., K. M. Kuhlman, K. L. Ortega, C. J. Melick, and L. P. Rothfusz

Handout (3.0 MB)

Public Reaction to Impact Based Warnings During an Extreme Hail Event in Abilene, Texas

Mike Johnson, NOAA/NWS, San Angelo, TX; and L. Myers, J. Dunn, V. Brown, H. Guerrero, and S. Lyons

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

Tornadic Events During UNSTABLE: Use of Supplemental Soundings

Robyn Dyck, EC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and J. Hanesiak, N. Taylor, and D. Sills

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (938.4 kB)

The influence of weather on Twitter discourse of #ClimateChange and #GlobalWarming

Kyle S. Griffin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. K. Yeo, Z. Handlos, A. Karambelas, L. Y. F. Su, J. Doolen, and D. Brossard

Analysis of Convective Clouds viewed from GOES During DC3

Andrew Heidinger, NOAA, Madison, WI; and S. Wanzong and A. Walther

Communicating Timely Information on the Evolving Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) using Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Sounders: Application to El Reno Event

Jessica M. Gartzke, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

Handout (3.5 MB)

Using 2011–2014 SSEO verification metrics to assess uncertainty in severe weather forecasts

Pamela Eck, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and J. Correia Jr.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall using Evolutionary Program Ensembles

Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI

The Development of Severe Convection Along a Dry Line in Northern Arizona

David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

A Real-Time High-Resolution Analysis and Short-Term Forecast System for Severe Weather in the Dallas/Fort Worth Testbed

Keith A. Brewster, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas, J. A. Brotzge, and F. H. Carr

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

A Comparison of Two Significant Severe Weather Events: Communication Strategies and Public Response Surrounding the 20 and 31 May 2013 Central Oklahoma Tornadoes

Marcus D. Austin, NOAA, Norman, OK; and M. B. Scotten, J. Kurtz, and M. Day

Nowcasting with the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)

Hongli Jiang, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, and Z. Toth

Hazard Services: An early look at the NOAA/NWS next generation warning tool in an operational environment

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE

Application of Optical Flow Techniques to Rainfall Nowcasting

Wang-Chun Woo, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. K. Wong

Handout (8.5 MB)

An Evaluation of the Potential Impact of SAILS on the Warning Decision Making of the 31 May 2013 El Reno, OK Storm

Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and M. D. Austin

Manuscript (5.4 MB)

The Utility of Convection-allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Cool Season Severe Weather Events from the SPC Perspective

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (617.3 kB)

Probabilistic Tornado Warning Plumes

Mark J. Mitchell, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

Manuscript (322.3 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

Solar radiation error research of sounding temperature sensor

Wei Dai Sr., Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, nanjing, China

The Multiple-Radar/Multiple-Sensor Severe Weather Products Best Practices Experiment in the HWT

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue, R. A. Prentice, M. Elliott, and D. M. Kingfield

Comparing the NSSL-WRF Model and Convection-allowing Versions of UKMET's Unified Model during the 2013 and 2014 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiments

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; and S. M. Willington, D. Suri, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, K. H. Knopfmeier, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, H. Lean, N. Roberts, M. Weeks, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, C. D. Karstens, P. T. Marsh, J. Correia Jr., and S. R. Dembek

The Use of Convection-Allowing Models to Improve Threat Assessment Associated with Nocturnal Supercells

Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and J. M. Boustead

An Overview of CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast for the 2014 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Fanyou Kong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, F. Shen, A. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and C. J. Melick

Handout (668.8 kB)

A comparison of grid-point and object-based updraft helicity probabilities for severe weather forecasting

James Correia Jr., NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK

The 3 May 2013 tornadic supercell in the Po River Valley, Italy: a case study for evaluating WRF-ARW at convection-allowing scale in the 24h forecasting range

Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and R. Ferretti

An Overview of the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, A. J. Clark, J. Correia Jr., K. H. Knopfmeier, C. J. Melick, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, Y. Wang, Y. Jung, and S. M. Willington

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

Evaluation of One-Hour Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts Issued during the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. A. Imy, C. D. Karstens, A. Clark, J. Correia Jr., and C. J. Melick

Verification of Earth Network's Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts and NWS Warnings

Rebecca E. DiLuzio, Millersville University, Coopersburg, PA; and T. C. Meyer, K. M. Kuhlman, and M. Elliott

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting