Communicating Timely Information on the Evolving Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) using Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Sounders: Application to El Reno Event
Using climatology as a guideline, we will analyze how the convective stability of the atmosphere for severe weather differs from typical days in the previous years without severe storms. We will look at the ability of satellite observations to characterize the probability distribution function of CAPE for Oklahoma in the May-June time period for the past decade. A particular focus will be on the ability of the combination of data with high vertical resolution infrared sounders on polar orbiting satellites along with a lower vertical resolution sounder in geostationary orbit to capture the extreme high tail of the CAPE probability distribution. The El Reno event will serve as a case study for showcasing satellite sounding timeliness. It is hoped that assimilation of satellite soundings into numerical models for the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather will prove to be a priority for the future. Understanding how and when satellites can be helpful in providing advance notice for severe events is important for improving the flow of timely information needed for communicating to the public.