6
Use and Validation of Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts Part 2

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 4 November 2014: 3:00 PM-4:15 PM
Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)
Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Organizers:  Curtis R. Alexander, Global Systems Division, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO and Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO

Papers:
 
64
A Preliminary Investigation into the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)
Alexandra M. Keclik, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and B. M. Burlingame, C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn

 
65
Using near-storm soundings from the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment to analyze convection permitting model accuracy: 28 May 2013
Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

 
66
Hail, Tornadoes and the Climate System: Analyzing the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on Interannual Variability
John T. Allen, Columbia Univ./International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett and A. H. Sobel

 
67
Anticipating Societal Impacts of Severe Convective Weather Using SPC Forecast Products
Matthew D. Brothers, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. T. Marsh

 
68
Observed and Predicted Changes in the Frequency of Extreme PWV Events and the Potential Societal Implications
Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. A. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

 
69
Examining the Impact of Climate Change upon Severe Convective Storms in the United States through High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling
Kimberly Hoogewind, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

 
70
Probabilistic Modeling of the European Severe Thunderstorm Climate
Georg Pistotnik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Kühne, A. T. Westermayer, and H. Rust

Handout (2.3 MB)

 
71
Hail Size Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques Applied to Storm Scale Ensembles
David John Gagne II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, J. Brotzge, J. Correia Jr., M. C. Coniglio, and M. Xue

Handout (1.5 MB)

 
72
On the usage of composite parameters in High-Shear, Low-CAPE environments
Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker
Manuscript (9.2 MB)

Handout (9.2 MB)

 
74
Verification of Sounding Parameters from the RAP and the RAP-Based and RUC-Based SFCOA Products
Lauren Michelle Wigley, University of Oklahoma/SPC Career Experience Program, Moore, OK; and R. M. Mosier
Manuscript (829.1 kB)

 
75
Implementation of Tornadic Debris Signature Guidance Using Polarimetric WSR-88D Data
Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, D. M. Kingfield, S. Degelia, and K. L. Ortega

Handout (6.0 MB)

 
77
Examination of the predictability of the September 2013 northeastern Colorado floods by the HRRR model
Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, E. P. James, and D. T. Lindsey

 
79
The Utility of Vertically Integrated Graupel as a Max Hail Size Predictor
Jennifer M. Laflin, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair
Manuscript (442.7 kB)

 
80
 
81
 
Poster 82 is now paper 8A.2A

 
84
The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Recent Updates and Extension to Forecasts of CG Lightning
Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and T. Chronis, J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (1.3 MB)

 
85
Analysis and Verification of 1300 UTC Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
Geoffrey Marion, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois; and J. W. Frame
Manuscript (357.0 kB)

Handout (687.4 kB)

 
86
Evaluation of Severe Weather Outbreak Diagnoses for Multiple Ranking Indices
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. N. Kabeiseman and M. J. Brown