Session: Use and Validation of Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts Part 2 (27th Conference on Severe Local Storms)

Tuesday, 4 November 2014: 3:00 PM-4:15 PM

Capitol Ballroom AB (Madison Concourse Hotel)

Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Organizers:

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO and Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO

Papers:

A Preliminary Investigation into the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Alexandra M. Keclik, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and B. M. Burlingame, C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn

Using near-storm soundings from the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment to analyze convection permitting model accuracy: 28 May 2013

Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

Hail, Tornadoes and the Climate System: Analyzing the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on Interannual Variability

John T. Allen, Columbia Univ./International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett and A. H. Sobel

Anticipating Societal Impacts of Severe Convective Weather Using SPC Forecast Products

Matthew D. Brothers, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. T. Marsh

Observed and Predicted Changes in the Frequency of Extreme PWV Events and the Potential Societal Implications

Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. A. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

Examining the Impact of Climate Change upon Severe Convective Storms in the United States through High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling

Kimberly Hoogewind, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

Probabilistic Modeling of the European Severe Thunderstorm Climate

Georg Pistotnik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Kühne, A. T. Westermayer, and H. Rust

Handout (2.3 MB)

Hail Size Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques Applied to Storm Scale Ensembles

David John Gagne II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, J. Brotzge, J. Correia Jr., M. C. Coniglio, and M. Xue

Handout (1.5 MB)

On the usage of composite parameters in High-Shear, Low-CAPE environments

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Manuscript (9.2 MB)

Handout (9.2 MB)

The Washington D.C. Lightning Mapping Array (DCLMA)

Verification of Sounding Parameters from the RAP and the RAP-Based and RUC-Based SFCOA Products

Lauren Michelle Wigley, University of Oklahoma/SPC Career Experience Program, Moore, OK; and R. M. Mosier

Manuscript (829.1 kB)

Implementation of Tornadic Debris Signature Guidance Using Polarimetric WSR-88D Data

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, D. M. Kingfield, S. K. Degelia, and K. L. Ortega

Handout (6.0 MB)

Exploration of the NSSL Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) Product for Verifying Experimental Hail Forecasts in the 2014 Spring Forecasting Experiment

Christopher J. Melick, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss

Manuscript (855.2 kB)

Handout (667.7 kB)

Examination of the predictability of the September 2013 northeastern Colorado floods by the HRRR model

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison, S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, E. P. James, and D. T. Lindsey

Going Old School—Using raw surface observations and objective analysis to accurately forecast a tornado environment

K. Bruce Haynie, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. R. Cobb and M. R. Conder

Handout (3.3 MB)

The Utility of Vertically Integrated Graupel as a Max Hail Size Predictor

Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair

Manuscript (442.7 kB)

Seasonal Prediction of Severe Convective Weather Parameters using the Climate Forecast System Version 2

Adam J. Stepanek, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

Evaluation of SPC Outlooks using the Symmetric Extremal Dependency Index

Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and H. E. Brooks

Handout (2.3 MB)

Poster 82 is now paper 8A.2A