Convective Scale Forecast for Day Two from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
Initial conditions for the Peregrine HRRR are still obtained from the advanced version of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) run at ESRL GSD. Boundary conditions out to 48 hours are obtained from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The Peregrine HRRR uses the same version of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the advanced version run at ERSL GSD.
We demonstrate the value of these forecasts for evaluating the potential for severe weather during the second day, a task which is an important goal of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). We show some objective verification, as well as some case studies from severe weather outbreaks during this past summer. Other applications of the two-day forecasts are briefly mentioned.