Session 2 Real-Time Severe Weather Forecasts

Monday, 3 November 2014: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
Madison Ballroom (Madison Concourse Hotel)
Host: 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair:
Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Papers:
10:30 AM
2.1
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh: The Operational Implementation and Ongoing Research
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, E. P. James, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, and J. M. Brown
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2.2
Convective Scale Forecast for Day Two from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander and S. Benjamin
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.3
Performance of the New NCEP/EMC High-Resolution Window and NAM CONUS Nest Models for Operational Severe Weather Forecasting Applications at the Storm Prediction Center
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, P. Marsh, M. Pyle, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, E. Rogers, J. Carley, and G. DiMego
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.4
The Real-time National Severe Storms Laboratory 4-km WRF Model Ensemble
Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; and J. S. Kain, S. R. Dembek, K. H. Knopfmeier, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., and P. T. Marsh
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.5
Combining Probabilistic Ensemble Information from the Environment with Simulated Storm Attributes to Generate Calibrated Probabilities of Severe Weather Hazards
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick and S. J. Weiss
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (865.3 kB)

11:45 AM
2.6
Deriving Hourly Severe Weather Probabilities from Convection Allowing Ensembles
James Correia Jr., NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, C. D. Karstens, P. Marsh, and D. A. Imy
Recorded Presentation

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