Deriving Hourly Severe Weather Probabilities from Convection Allowing Ensembles
We will review the probabilities generated by forecasters and models during the 2014 SFE to highlight the inherent difficulties creating event-driven probabilities at various time/space scales . Given this new approach, there is a need for reliable guidance, but challenges remain. Existing neighborhood approaches account for location errors via spatial smoothing, but these smoothers have primarily been developed for 24-hour probabilities. Therefore, we examine multiple spatial smoothers and using multiple proxy-severe variables. In addition, higher temporal resolution would require a time-based neighborhood approach. In order to examine how to construct a temporal smoother, we use a long-term climatology from a convection-allowing ensemble to inform our options.