Verification of the National Hurricane Center's Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) routinely issues Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWO) for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Ocean Basins. The TWOs are text-based products that discuss areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. In 2007, the NHC began producing in-house experimental probabilistic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. Forecasters subjectively assign a probability of genesis (0 to 100%, at 10% increments) to each area of disturbed weather described in the text TWO. These forecasts were verified based on TC development from NHC best-track data. The verification of these forecasts will be discussed along with the potential inclusion of these forecasts as part of an experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for 2008 hurricane season.