Advancement of the HWRF for next generation hurricane prediction at NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center

The Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast system (HWRF) became operational at NCEP in 2007. Under development at EMC since 2002, the coupled HWRF system was uniquely designed to begin making significant advancements in improving operational forecast skill of intensity and structure forecasts in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts to address the coastal inundation problem. Continued advancements in track prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction system. Further advancements will include coupling the HWRF to a land surface model for improved rainfall forecast for input to operational hydrology and inundation models to address the hurricane related inland flooding problem.

The advanced design of the HWRF will be discussed in addition to the operational requirements for bringing a new hurricane model into operations for NHC. Future advancements of the HWRF at EMC will also be discussed in terms of increasing resolution, advancing data assimilation for both atmosphere and ocean, formulation of physics for advanced high resolution coupled hurricane systems and developing hurricane ensembles to enhance NHC's hurricane intensity prediction capabilities.