P2A.7 Climate change and Caribbean hurricanes

Thursday, 1 May 2008
Palms ABCD (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Mark Jury, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, Mayaguez, PR

Air temperatures in the trade wind inversion over the Caribbean have been rising much faster than sea temperatures. These features are shown to be linked with trends in the regional Hadley circulation. Changes in atmospheric composition play a secondary role. Smoke and dust plumes from Africa enhance the greenhouse effect, creating a unique Caribbean response to global warming. Reduced surface heat fluxes together with a more stable lower troposphere should inhibit hurricanes despite an increase of SST. Paleo-proxy indices, observational data and IPCC cGCM model projections are analyzed to find long-term trends in hurricanes and the underlying causes.
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