Simulating Hurricane Pre-Landfall and Post-Landfall Intensity Changes

Accurate numerical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity remains a challenging problem because it not only requires an accurate depiction of the large-scale environment, but also the knowledge of inner core structure and dynamics, air-sea interaction and core data assimilation. In this study we employ the WRF numerical model to examine the sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone intensity to varying horizontal and vertical grid resolutions, and physics parameterizations.

Preliminary results with hurricane Katrina demonstrate that the pre-landfall intensity is mostly determined by the surface fluxes parameterizations. Improving vertical resolution generally gives a less intense storm due to the representation of surface winds, and high horizontal resolution (< 1 km) may be necessary to resolve the core structure.

Other major hurricanes are being tested. The simulated post-landfall decay rates will also be addressed.