Development of a new storm surge index for prediction of storm surge associated with landfalling tropical cyclones

Providing a relatively simple, yet effective, method for predicting tropical cyclone generated storm surge would be beneficial for surge-prone nations worldwide. Many vulnerable countries do not have access to highly sophisticated surge models, and these areas may find an alternate method for surge prediction useful. This research uses power law analysis and curve fitting to quantify the sensitivity of storm surge to changes in several variables, such as a tropical cyclone's maximum winds, radius of maximum winds, and translation speed. These variables are combined into a storm surge index , and the index is calculated for all U.S. landfalling hurricanes between 1986 and 2007. Finally, extensive correlation analysis is presented to determine the relative success of the storm surge index when compared to actual storm surge heights.