Improved TC forecasting through Initalization of MM5 with GFDL/GFS Merger

While the GFS provides some of the most accurate guidance for tropical cyclone track, there remains considerable room for improvement with intensity forecasting. This is in part a consequence of the choice of vortex initialization in the GFS: vortex relocation, rather than vortex specification as is done in the GFDL.

In order to improve the quality of the TC initialization in FSU MM5 TC forecasts, we have begun to merge the GFDL and GFS grids into a single global grid. This global composite is then used to initialize the MM5.

This poster will discuss the merging process, illustrate graphically the result of the merger, and show forecast skill results for a few 2007 TCs, comparing initializations with merger and with GFS only.