Session 14A.4 A Statistical Analysis of JTWC NWPAC Intensity Trends

Thursday, 1 May 2008: 11:00 AM
Palms GF (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Stephen J. Barlow, 17th Operational Weather Squadron/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

Presentation PDF (543.2 kB)

A statistical analysis of observed Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity trends was completed using Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data. The results of this analysis will be presented. This initial effort and follow-on work will be used in our continuing effort to improve intensity forecasts. Preliminary results indicate that there is no significant correlation between JTWC intensity forecast error and geographical location of the TC, initial TC intensity, or TC motion. However, this 30-year climatology can serve to help bound the intensity forecast problem.
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