Advanced Numerical Prediction and Modeling of Tropical Cyclones Using WRF-NMM modeling system

The Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) is a general purpose, multi-institutional mesoscale modeling system. A version of the WRF model called the HWRF/WRF-NMM modeling system, developed at the National Center for Environmental Protection (Gopalakrishnan et al, 2006) was recently adopted for operational hurricane forecasting . At the HRD/AOML we are developing and advancing this system further. Our objectives for understanding and improving numerical forecasting of track and intensity include: (i)Advancing the WRF-NMM core with moving grids optimal for hurricane forecasting at grid lengths down to about 1-3 km; (ii) Advancing the WRF-NMM modeling system with four dimensional data assimilation techniques for improving forecasts of the vortex scale motions at about 1 km grid length;(iii) Advancing the system with multiple options of physical parameterization schemes;(iv) Determining the value of high-resolution deterministic versus lower resolution ensemble forecasts. Some important issues specifically related to the optimal grid resolution for forecasting hurricane track and intensity will be discussed.

References:

NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, N.Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24- 28 April 2006, Monterey, California.