A rexamination of the relationship between central pressure and maximum sustained wind speed

Prediction of rapid intensification remains a challenging issue. While the onset of rapid decreases of central pressure are often linked to the rapid increase in sustained wind speeds, these two variables do not always begin to change rapidly at the same time. Conceptually, the onset of a rapid decrease in pressure would seem likely to occur prior to the onset of a rapid increase in sustained wind speed because of the acceleration associated with the pressure gradient force. However, this is not always observed in practice. In some rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones the onset of rapid intensification of sustained wind speeds occurs before the onset of the rapid decrease of pressure.

This study re-examines the relationship between the decrease of pressure and the increase of maximum sustained wind speeds. Relationships between central pressure and maximum sustained wind speed, rates of change of central pressure and maximum sustained wind speeds, and differences in the onset of pressure decreases and wind speed increases are studied. Particular emphasis is given to the situations where rapid intensification occurred. The tropical cyclones are also stratified by size in according to wind radii to examine the possible effect of storm size on the results. Case studies are presented to exemplify the results. The results are also compared to the pressures and wind speeds contained in the Dvorak technique.