9B.7 The nonstationary correlations between indices of West African precipitation and Atlantic hurricane activity

Wednesday, 30 April 2008: 9:30 AM
Palms E (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Dr. Jon M Schrage, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink

Correlations between annual records of West African precipitation for a variety of spatial domains and indices of Atlantic hurricane activity (such as ACE, or “accumulated cyclone energy”) suggest some moderate relationship between these two variables. However, the correlation has been shown by the authors to be nonstationary; subsampling the data by external factors such as the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic or the phase of the Southern Oscillation can dramatically change the magnitude or even the sign of these correlations. The present study aims to statistically describe the processes that influence the connections between West African seasonal precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis.
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