P2A.14 Analysis of environmental factors associated with tropical cyclone activity in a future climate

Thursday, 1 May 2008
Palms ABCD (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Kevin Talgo, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC; and A. Aiyyer

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural phenomena

and impact a significant portion of the world's population. A major

problem, that has been well recognized, is the potential for

increased vulnerability of coastal areas in a warmer climate.

Since the large scale environment exerts a strong control over

TC development, it is of particular importance to assess the

changes in the environmental factors as predicted by climate


In this study, data from a suite of coupled climate models spanning

several scenarios are analyzed and spatio-temporal patterns of

environmental conditions of importance to TC development are

examined. The model outputs are compared and contrasted in order

to ascertain the range of predicted changes. Both, common elements

and model-to-model discrepancies are studied in order to assess

the potential skill and uncertainty in predictions for TC activity

in a future climate.

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