5B.1 Erroneous use of the historical data base to link global warming with increased tropical cyclone activity

Tuesday, 29 April 2008: 8:00 AM
Palms E (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

The last few years have seen a number of published studies attributing increases in tropical cyclone (TC) activity to global warming. Some of these studies have focused on relationships with global TC increases while others have highlighted a particular TC basin such as the North Atlantic. Other studies have argued that most, if not all, of any increase in TC activity is due to natural (multidecadal) cycles and have also pointed out severe limitations with the historical TC record. It will be discussed how improper use of the historical TC data base can lead to erroneous conclusions. The main issue that will be addressed is whether or not the quality of the long-term TC data base is sufficient to support the link between global warming and increased TC activity.
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