Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005

Multi-year inventories of vehicular emissions at a high spatial resolution of 40km×40km were established in China using the GIS methodology for the period 1980-2005, based on provincial data from statistical yearbooks regarding vehicles, fuel and roads, and on the emission factors of targeted air pollutants for each vehicle category calculated by COPERT III program. Results showed that the emissions of CH4, CO, CO2, NMVOC, NOx, PM10 and SO2 increased expotentially from 5, 1 066, 19 893, 169, 174, 26, 16 thousand tons in 1980 to 377, 36 197, 674 629, 5 911, 4 539, 983 and 484 thousand tons in 2005 at an annual average rate of 19%, 15%, 15%, 15%, 14%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Statistical analysis of vehicular emissions and GDP showed that they were well positively correlated, which revealed that the economic growth during the period of 1980-2005 was achieved at the cost of substantial increase of pollutant emissions. Spatial distribution of pollutant emissions was rather unbalanced due to different economic development levels among provinces: Over three quarters of the total emissions concentrated in developed regions of China's southeastern, northern and central areas covering only 35.2% of China's territory, with the remaining emissions distributing over the southwestern, northwestern and northeastern regions covering as much as 64.8% of the territory. In 2005, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta covering only 2.3%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, of the territory, generated about 10%, about 19%, and about 12%, respectively, of the total emissions. Since 1990, motorcycles have been responsible for 41%-64%, 46%-63%, 31%-51%, and 66%-77% of the CH4 , CO, NMVOC, and PM10 emissions, respectively. Heavy duty vans accounted for 47%-53% of the NOx emissions and 46%-56% of the SO2 emissions. Passenger cars contributed about one third of the emissions of each pollutant. Contributions of vehicle categories to emissions varied from province to province, due to the diversity of vehicle compositions among provinces, which provided proofs for local policy-makers to establish and take measures to reduce vehicular emissions.