Session 17A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change III: Statistical-Dynamical Forecast Methods

Friday, 2 May 2008: 8:00 AM-9:45 AM
Palms GF (Wyndham Orlando Resort)
Host: 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
John E. Molinari, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, ES 225, Albany, NY

Papers:
8:00 AM
17A.1
Merging statistical and dynamical forecasts for hurricane prediction
Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD

8:15 AM
17A.2
A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity evolution
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (116.6 kB)

17A.3
A Statistical Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

8:45 AM
17A.4
A simple parameterization of sea surface cooling beneath a hurricane inner core
Andrea B. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and M. DeMaria, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (233.9 kB)

9:00 AM
17A.5
The use of a SHIPS ensemble for probabilistic tropical cyclone intensity forecasts
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and M. DeMaria

9:15 AM
17A.6
Examination of environmental characteristics associated with secondary eyewall formation and their implications on intensity forecasts
Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
17A.7
Evaluating a revised 24-hour Atlantic statistical hurricane intensification model with operational numerical models
Kevin T. Law, Marshall University, Huntington, WV
Recorded presentation

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