1.2 Severe Convective Storms Knowledge, Practice and Societal Response: Some Priorities from the Operational Forecast Community

Monday, 7 November 2016: 9:15 AM
Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Russell S. Schneider, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK

This presentation will summarize the current state of operational severe storm forecast practice, and provide perspectives for needed improvements to our physical understanding, prediction, communication of, and public reaction to, severe weather events (tornadoes, hail, wind, flooding, etc.).  This will include:

A brief summary of successful practices or advances in severe weather forecasting and communication including successful forecast communication practices, modelling or observational tools that play an important role in the issuances of successful forecasts.  For example: How has forecast accuracy improved (or not) from using new tools?  In what kinds of synoptic/mesoscale situations and for what types of storm events (tornadoes, hail, wind, supercells, MCSs, bow echos, etc.) are forecasts most accurate?  Which models work best in these situations?  Have recent changes to communication of forecasts (e.g., convective outlooks using marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high risk) improved public or NWS understanding and response to severe weather risk?

A brief summary of the most salient operational challenges and how these might be successfully addressed.  For example:  In which synoptic/mesoscale situations are severe convective forecasts least accurate?  What specific new/modified models or observing tools are needed to improve forecasts?  Are there changes to forecast issuance and communication practices that could better optimize public ingestion of weather threats?  Are there certain human-element behaviors/disciplines that forecasters themselves could change or be mindful of to improve forecasts?

Finally, the presention will suggest new physical and social science research studies that might yield practical improvements to forecast skill and public perception and response.

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