Program: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms (28th Conference on Severe Local Storms)

David Sills, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Ashton, S. Knott, S. Boodoo, J. Klaassen, S. Bélair, and Y. H. Yang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.2 MB)

5B.5

A Comparison of Perceived and Climatological Risk to Tornadoes Surrounding Three Tennessee Cities

9:45 AM

5B.6

Observed and Forecast Changes In United States Tornado Exposure

Stephen M. Strader, Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. Krmenec

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break - Cosponsored by AccuWeather

Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

Session 6A

Numerical Simulations of Environmental Impacts on Storms

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ.

10:30 AM

6A.1

Exploring the Impact of Storm Relative Helicity on the Relationship Between Cold Pools and Tornadoes

Jason Naylor, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (779.1 kB)

10:45 AM

6A.2

Simulated Effects of Urban Environments on the Dynamics of a Supercell Thunderstorm

Larissa J. Reames, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Examining Storm Evolution Within Idealized Heterogeneous Environments

Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6A.4

The Impact of Variations in Upper-Level Shear on Simulated Supercells

Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and H. A. Ramsay, H. Richter, S. T. Siems, and M. J. Manton

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6A.5

The Origins of Rotation within High-Shear, Low-CAPE Mesovortices and Mesocyclones

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

11:45 AM

6A.6

How Much does “Backing Aloft” Actually Impact a Supercell?

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Cataloging Tornado Events and Damage

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Gabe Garfield

10:30 AM

6B.1

About the ASCE Tornado Wind Speed Estimation Standards Committee

James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Office of Chief Learning Officer/Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6B.2

Addressing Interconnections between the Built and Natural Environments through Post-Event Damage Surveys

Franklin T. Lombardo, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and C. M. Godfrey and C. J. Peterson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.3

A Methodology for Improving Tornado Damage-Based Intensity Ratings

Lawrence A. Twisdale Jr., Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and S. S. Banik, P. J. Vickery, L. Phan, and M. Levitan

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.4

Tornado Database Cleansing and Augmentation for Use in Tornado Risk Modeling

Melissa K. Faletra, Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and L. A. Twisdale Jr., M. B. Hardy, M. Levitan, and L. Phan

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6B.5

Development and Implementation of Japanese Enhanced Fujita Scale

Yukio Tamura, Tokyo Polytechnic University, Atsugi, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Niino, M. Ito, H. Kikitsu, J. Maeda, Y. Okuda, H. Sakata, Y. Shoji, S. Suzuki, and Y. Tanaka

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (6.9 MB)

11:45 AM

6B.6

Tornado Damage Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, J. S. Grams, and A. R. Dean

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 7A

Regional and Local Variations of Storm Environments and Terrain Effects

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robert Trapp, University of Illinois

1:30 PM

7A.1

A Detailed Analysis of Tornado Events across Northeastern Alabama's Southern Cumberland System

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.2

Assessing the Influence of Topography on Convective Storm Environments Using High-Resolution Operational Model Output

Branden Katona, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Self-Organizing Maps: Probing Spatial Patterns in Tornadic Near-Storm Environments

Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

SPC Perspectives on the 24 August 2016 Tornado Outbreak in Indiana and Ohio

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

7A.5

A Comprehensive Database of Severe Thunderstorm Proximity Soundings Derived From the SPC Mesoscale Analysis System

2:30 PM

7A.5A

Cold-season Tornadoes: Climatological, Meteorological, and Social Perspectives

Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

Severe Convection in Central Argentina: Storm Modes and Environments

Stephen W. Nesbitt, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and P. Borque, K. L. Rasmussen, P. Salio, R. J. Trapp, L. Vidal, M. Rugna, and J. Mulholland

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

NWP Applications of Data Assimilation

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL

1:30 PM

7B.1

Warn-on-Detection to Warn-on-Forecast by 2020?

Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Overview of Quick OSSEs in Support of the Warn-on-Forecast Project

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. A. Otkin, S. Koch, R. M. Cintineo, D. J. Stensrud, and Z. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.3

A Realtime Weather-Adaptive 3DVAR Analysis and WRF model Forecast System with Automatic Storm Positioning and On-demand Capability

Yunheng Wang, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, T. A. Jones, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, L. J. Wicker, and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7B.4

“Big Data Assimilation” for 30-second-update 100-m-mesh Numerical Weather Prediction

Takemasa Miyoshi, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, M. Kunii, J. J. Ruiz, Y. Maejima, S. Otsuka, K. Kondo, H. Seko, S. Satoh, T. Ushio, K. Bessho, H. Tomita, S. Nishizawa, T. Yamaura, and Y. Ishikawa

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

Development of NWS GSI-Based EnVar System for convective scale radar data assimilation: Methodology, Impact of sub-kilometer resolution and Experiment with the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell

Yongming Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

Ensemble Sensitivity-Based Observation Targeting Experiments for Southern Plains Dryline Convection

Aaron J. Hill, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 2A

Climatologies of Severe Weather Environments and Events

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

43

A Climatology of Sounding-Derived Parameters for Deep, Moist Convection in Europe

Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and J. G. Fairman Jr. and D. M. Schultz

44

A History of Tornadoes in Europe from Aristotle to Alfred Wegener

Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and H. Ricketts and D. M. Schultz

45

Tornado Climatology for the Appalachian Mountains Region of the Eastern United States

James J. Morrow, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA

46

Climatology of Severe Convective Environments from the 20th Century Reanalysis

Kimberly Hoogewind, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and V. A. Gensini and R. J. Trapp

47

An Examination of Tornado-Production Tendencies of Southern-Most Supercells Compared to Adjacent Linearly Oriented Supercells

Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and S. R. Marzola

48

Hail Climatology for Brisbane, Australia, Derived from Single-Polarization Radar

Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and J. R. Peter, H. A. Ramsay, S. T. Siems, M. J. Manton, and A. Protat

Handout (1.3 MB)

49

Environmental Factors in the Varying Length of Time between First Echo and First Tornado

Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Omaha, NE; and K. L. R. Gross

50

Analysis of Convective Mode in Severe Thunderstorm Events across Eastern Parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains

Brandon J. Centeno, NOAA/Hollings, Norman, OK; and A. E. Cohen, S. F. Piltz, S. J. Corfidi, J. B. McGavock, L. B. Carlaw, A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, and J. W. Rogers

51

A Climatological History of Tornadoes in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington

David Elson, NWS, Portland, OR

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

52

Perspectives on Updraft Helicity Climatologies from Convection-allowing Ensembles

James Correia Jr., Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK

53

A Climatology of Tornado Parameters in Japan Assessed by Dynamical Downscaling Using a WRF Regional Climate Model: Detailed Analysis with Combined Parameters and Preliminary Discussion on Effects of Future Climate Change

Soichiro Sugimoto, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Hashimoto and H. Hirakuchi

54

Statistical Analysis of Regional Rainfall Distributions around Jeju Island by Low-level Winds during the Winter Season

Gyeong-Tae Ryu, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. I. Lee and K. O. Lee

Poster 55 has moved. Now paper 14A.2

56

Assessment of Precipitation Simulation by NARCCAP Regional Climate Models and the Relationship with Large-Scale Circulation Bias

Yating Zhao, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and X. M. Hu

57

National Weather Service's Creation of a High-Resolution Archive of Severe Weather Events

58

Tornadoes in the Southeastern United States: A Climatological Perspective

Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and E. Agee

59

Tornadoes and the Nocturnal Transition: Will they Persist?

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Peters, E. R. Nielsen, and R. S. Schumacher

60

Development of a New Predictive Tool for Tornadoes Downwind of the Appalachian Mountains Using AO and NAO Indices

Matthew Brown, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

61

Comparison of Convective Parameters in MPI-ESM Regional and Global Decadal Hindcasts to ERA-Interim Reanalysis

Lars Tijssen, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer

62

A Climatology of Dryline Convection in the Southern Great Plains

Trevor Mitchell, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz

63

Insights from Composite Environments of High-Shear, Low-CAPE Severe Convection

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Manuscript (2.0 MB)

Handout (8.5 MB)

64

Predictions of Severe Weather Environments by the Climate Forecast System Version 2 Model Suite

Adam J. Stepanek, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

Manuscript (537.4 kB)

65

The Statistical Characteristics of Convective Cells during the Asian Summer Monsoon Season in East China

Ji Yang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China

Poster Session 2B

Data Assimilation Techniques and Applications

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

66

Analysis of the 6 September 2015 Tornadic Storm around the Tokyo Metropolitan Area using a 3DVAR and Incremental Analysis Updates Coupling

Ken-Ichi Shimose, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Shimizu, R. Kato, S. I. Suzuki, T. Maesaka, Y. Susse, K. Kieda, R. Misumi, and K. Iwanami

67

Assimilating Surface Observations in a Four-Dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Data Assimilation System for the Analysis and Forecast of a Squall Line Case

Kun Zhao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and X. Chen, J. Sun, B. Zhou, and W. Lee

68

Impact of Data Assimilation Variations on 1-km Forecasts of 24 May 2011 Tornadic Supercells

Derek R. Stratman, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster

Handout (1.8 MB)

69

Incremental Analysis Updating with Variable-Dependent Timing Applied in a Real-Time High Resolution Forecast System

Keith A. Brewster, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. R. Stratman, K. W. Thomas, and F. H. Carr

Manuscript (4.4 MB)

70

Convective-scale Data Assimilation of High-resolution Wind and Thermodynamic Observations during PECAN and VORTEX2

James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman and G. Romine

Handout (19.7 MB)

71

EnKF and Polarimetric Analyses of the 31 May 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Supercell during Tornadogenesis

Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder, L. J. Wicker, H. B. Bluestein, and K. J. Thiem

Handout (27.3 MB)

72

Performance of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) during VORTEX-Southeast

Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, R. A. Sobash, G. J. Creager, C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker

Handout (5.1 MB)

73

A Comparison of QPFs in Two Ensembles from the 2016 Spring Forecasting Experiment with and without Radar Data Assimilation

Eswar R. Iyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, C. J. Melick, and B. T. Gallo

74

Weather Radar Data assimilation Impact in Very Short Range Forecasting - a Squall Line Case Study in Brazil

Rafael Toshio Inouye, SIMEPAR - Parana Meteorological System, Curitiba, Brazil; and L. Calvetti, J. E. Gonçalves, B. B. Maske, R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, F. L. R. Diniz, E. P. Vendrasco, D. Herdies, L. G. G. D. Goncalves, and A. F. Leite

Handout (4.9 MB)

75

Sensitivities of Polarimetric Radar Forward Operators

Jeffrey C. Snyder, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, D. T. Dawson II, Y. Jung, and A. Khain

5A.3

Impact of UAS Data on Supercell Evolution in an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Jason M. Keeler, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

Poster Session 2C

Overviews and Results of Field Programs

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

76

Characterization of the Dryline in Alberta: Observations from UNSTABLE 2008

Neil M. Taylor, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and D. M. L. Sills, J. Hanesiak, C. D. Smith, and J. C. Brimelow

Manuscript (3.1 MB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

77

Mesoscale Convective Systems during 2011 Identified from Surface Pressure Array

Alexander A. Jacques, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Horel and E. T. Crosman

78

An Overview of ULM Participation in the VORTEX-SE Field Program

Todd A. Murphy, Univ. of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and T. Aydell Sr., I. Bordelon, S. Kreller, H. M. Mallinson, A. Melancon, and E. M. Murillo

Handout (12.1 MB)

79

Simulated Nocturnal Convective Systems from the PECAN Field Experiment

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, and T. J. Schuur

80

Utilization of Multiple Platforms in a High-Resolution Tornado Damage Survey: The 31 March 2016 Hartselle-Priceville, Alabama EF2 Tornado during VORTEX-SE

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. L. Calamaio, A. L. Ravenscraft, A. Staarmann, D. M. Conrad, P. Tucker, R. Wade, K. R. Knupp, L. A. Schultz, T. P. Barron, B. C. Carcione, K. D. White, J. R. Walker, T. R. Lee, M. Buban, E. J. Dumas Jr., P. Owen, M. Warner, and K. Harvey

81

NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NSTORM) Project

Christopher J. Schultz, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, T. J. Lang, J. Srikishen, J. L. Case, A. L. Molthan, B. T. Zavodsky, J. Bailey, R. J. Blakeslee, and G. Jedlovec

82

Convective Adjustment and Recovery Associated with Supercell Thunderstorms During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Robert Trapp, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. M. Woznicki

83

A Significant Tornado Near a Frontogenetical Boundary During VORTEX-SE

Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. W. Lyza, R. Wade, K. Knupp, and W. Wyatt

84

Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN): Preliminary Analyses of Severe Surface Wind Production in Nocturnal MCSs

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

85

An Overview of Forecasts and Convection-Allowing Model Guidance during VORTEX-SE Year 1 Field Operations

Ryan Wade, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. W. Lyza, D. M. Conrad, B. Goudeau, C. A. Lisauckis, and B. M. Lund

86

The Doppler On Wheels and CSWR Surface Observational Facility

Josh Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, B. Pereira, T. Meyer, R. Humphrey, A. Frambach, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis

87

Analysis of a Severe MCS and Nocturnal Tornadogenesis sampled by PECAN on 5-6 July 2015

Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, C. L. Ziegler, R. S. Schumacher, M. D. Parker, E. R. Mansell, M. I. Biggerstaff, and T. J. Schuur

87A

An Observational Analysis of Mesovortex Genesis and Maintenance during the PECAN Field Campaign

Barrett Goudeau, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Session 8A

Microphysical Processes in Severe Storms

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ.

4:30 PM

8A.1

Numerical Simulation of a Hailstorm Event of April 2015 over Eastern China: Hailstone Size Forecast, Microphysical Budgets and Convection Initiation Mechanism

Liping Luo, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and M. Xue and K. Zhu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.2 MB)

Handout (5.9 MB)

4:45 PM

8A.2

An Exploration of Hail Formation in Supercell Storms: Why do some Supercell Storms Produce Large Hail while others Generate Small Hail?

Zachary J. Lebo, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and M. R. Kumjian

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

8A.3

Diagnosing the Microphysical and Dynamical Effects of Mixed-Phase Hydrometeors in Convective Storms Using a Bin Microphysics Model

Kevin Kacan, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and Z. J. Lebo

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

8A.4

Large Accumulations of Small Hail

Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Z. J. Lebo

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

8A.5

Hail Variability in Supercell Storms and Response to Environmental Variables

Lena Heuscher, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

8A.6

Improving the Skill of Predicted Surface Hail in a High-Resolution Model Simulation using a Multi-Moment Microphysics Scheme

Jonathan D. Labriola, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Snook, Y. Jung, B. J. Putnam, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Development of High-Resolution Forecast Models

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/OAR/NSSL

4:30 PM

8B.1

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Development for Deterministic and Ensemble Prediction

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, T. T. Ladwig, M. Hu, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Beck, J. A. Hamilton, E. P. James, S. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

8B.2

Development of a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) for Severe Weather Forecasting

David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. Beck, S. G. Benjamin, M. Hu, T. Ladwig, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. S. Skinner, and D. M. Wheatley

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

8B.3

Developing a Quantitative Measure of Convective Forcing to Evaluate High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) Variance

Amber J. Liggett, Millersville Univ., Beaver, PA; and T. T. Ladwig, D. C. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

5:15 PM

8B.4

Evaluation of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) Skill and Variance for Events with Strong Convective Forcing versus Weak Convective Forcing

Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. J. Liggett, D. C. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and J. Beck

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

8B.5

Real-time Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Forecasting Experiments for NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast Project

Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

8B.6

An Evaluation of MCS Prediction with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles

Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

Recorded Presentation

Registration

Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

Session 9

Lightning

Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Sean Waugh, NSSL

9:00 AM

9.1

The Impact of Total Lightning Information in the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model

John L. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. J. Pavolonis, J. Sieglaff, and J. C. Brunner

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9.2

Probabilistic and Temporal Relationships between Lightning Jump Occurrence and Radar-Derived Thunderstorm Intensification

Christopher J. Schultz, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. Chronis, S. M. Stough, L. D. Carey, and D. J. Cecil

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9.3

Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

Pamela Eck, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

9.4

Flash Size Distributions Characterized by Mobile LMA Deployments During VORTEX-SE

Eric C. Bruning, Texas Tech Univ, Lubbock, TX; and V. C. Chmielewski, C. C. Weiss, J. Dahl, A. J. Hill, C. J. Schultz, and J. Bailey

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

Session 10

Tornado and Vortex dynamics

Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State Univ.

10:15 AM

10.1

Fine-Scale Observations of Subvortices Within the Multiple-Vortex ‘El Reno Tornado' of 31 May 2013 Using a Rapid-Scan, Mobile, Doppler Radar

Kyle J. Thiem, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, J. C. Snyder, and J. B. Houser

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

10.2

The Regulation of Tornado Intensity by Updraft Characteristics. Part I: Theoretical Background and Supporting Observations

Robert Trapp, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Marion and S. W. Nesbitt

10:45 AM

10.3

The Regulation of Tornado Intensity by Updraft Characteristics. Part II: Idealized Simulations

Geoffrey Marion, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois; and R. Trapp and S. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

10.4

The Role of Surface Drag in Tornadogenesis within an Idealized Supercell Simulation

Brett Roberts, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, A. D. Schenkman, and D. Dawson

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

10.5

Tornado Vortex Structure, Intensity, and Surface Wind Gusts in Large-Eddy Simulations with Fully Developed Turbulence

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and N. A. Dahl, G. H. Bryan, and R. Rotunno

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10.6

Examining Uncertainty in Tornado Intensity Estimates Using Observing System Tests with High-Resolution Simulations

Nathan A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan, G. H. Bryan, and R. Rotunno

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10.7

Growth and Maintenance of a Tornado Vortex by Upscale Inertial Production of Turbulence

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 11A

Numerical Simulations of Supercells

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ.

1:30 PM

11A.1

Analysis and Prediction of a Rare EF4 Tornado on June 23, 2016 in Northern Jiangsu Province, China

Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Zhu, Z. Sun, K. Zhao, M. Wang, and S. Sun

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11A.2

Simulations of Violently Tornadic Supercells

Leigh Orf, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and B. D. Lee, C. A. Finley, R. B. Wilhelmson, and A. L. Houston

2:00 PM

11A.3

Large Sensitivity of Near-surface Vertical Vorticity Development and Amplification to Heat Sink Location in Idealized Simulations of Supercell-like Storms

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11A.4

Updraft Rotation in Supercells: Beyond Tilting of Horizontal Shear Vorticity

Johannes Dahl, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11A.5

Surface Layer Influences on Supercell Thunderstorms

Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. R. Guarriello

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11A.6

Simulated Supercells in Nontornadic and Tornadic VORTEX2 Environments

Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation

Session 11B

Results from the MPEX Field Program

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR

1:30 PM

11B.1

Verification of Near-Storm Environment Analyses and Forecasts Using MPEX Upsonde Observations

Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11B.2

Supercell-Environment Interactions Observed by MPEX and Mini-MPEX

Andrew Wade, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11B.3

Examination of Mesoscale Feedbacks on Convective Scale Predictability during MPEX

Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

2:15 PM

11B.4

The Influence of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment

Alexandra Keclik, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, and G. S. Romine

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11B.5

Impact of Assimilating Pre-convective Upsonde Observations on Short-term Forecasts of Convection Observed during MPEX

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. M. Hitchcock and K. H. Knopfmeier

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11B.6

Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY; and G. S. Romine and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 3

Forecasting Techniques: Evaluation of Convective Outlooks and Warnings

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

88

WSR-88D Radar Parameters Associated with Tornado Warning False Alarms

Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. C. Varian

89

New Verification Techniques for FACETs: Geospatial Warning Verification System Performance on the 2007-2015 Storm-based Tornado Warning Database

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith

Handout (3.6 MB)

90

Use of WSR-88D Spectrum Width as a Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool in the Tornado Warning Decision-Making Process

Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and A. R. Gibbs and K. Mente

91

A Glance at the Relationship between Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Rotation Tracks and National Weather Service (NWS) Tornado Warnings

Alyssa V. Bates, NWS/OU CIMMS Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue

92

Evaluating the Accuracy and Skill of the SPC's Significant Severe Convective Outlooks

Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and H. E. Brooks

Handout (2.3 MB)

93

Comparing Tornado and False Alarm Events in the Rapid City Forecast Area

Matthew B. Wilson, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and M. J. Bunkers

94

The Sydney 2014 Forecasting Demonstration Project: The role of the forecaster in a Nowcasting service

Aurora D. Bell, BoM, Melbourne VIC, Australia; and A. Seed, M. Curtis, P. Steinle, and D. Narramore

95

Probabalistic Convective Warnings and the Hazard Services Program

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross and T. L. Hansen

96

Further Analysis and Verification of Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Tornado Outlooks

Alex Erwin, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame and G. Marion

Handout (436.7 kB)

Poster Session 3A

Forecasting Techniques: Methods for Severe Weather Prediction

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

97

Improving Spread Characteristics in a Convection Allowing Ensemble

Brock Burghardt, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

98

Use of Convective Initiation Information Derived from GOES Satellite Data in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System

Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, and J. R. Mecikalski

Handout (3.5 MB)

99

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Patrick N. Gatlin, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil, W. A. Petersen, J. L. Case, and J. R. Bell

100

Forecasting Left-Moving Supercells Using an Ensemble Data Assimilation System

Cameron J. Nixon, NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones

101

CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Supporting 2016 NOAA HWT and HMT

Fanyou Kong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, N. Snook, K. W. Thomas, and G. Zhao

Handout (1.2 MB)

102

Comparison of the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity to other Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick and S. J. Weiss

Manuscript (228.3 kB)

Handout (888.8 kB)

103

Feature-Relative Forecast Evaluation for Convective Systems

Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

104

Application of Additive Logistic Regression Models for Convective Hazards to NWP

Lars Tijssen, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, A. T. Westermayer, and R. Sausen

105

Promoting GOES-R User Readiness in NWS Severe Weather Operations Using the Weather Event Simulator (WES-2 Bridge)

Michael A. Bowlan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

106

Incorporating Mesoscale Ensemble Model Data in the Forecasting of Severe Convective Events

Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. Cobb, G. D. Skwira, and B. C. Ancell

107

Generation of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-allowing Models

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK

Poster Session 3B

Forecasting Techniques: Verification of Severe Weather

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

108

Verification and Analysis of Impact-Based Warnings: Assessing the Performance of Quantitative Hazard Forecasts in the Transition toward the FACETs Paradigm

C. A. M. Gerlach, NSSL, Norman, OK

109

Forecasting Tornadoes by Combining Climatological Frequencies with the NSSL-WRF Ensemble

Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. L. Jirak, H. E. Brooks, and S. R. Dembek

110

Verification of Severe Weather Proxies from the NSSL-WRF for Hail Forecasting

Nathan A. Wendt, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and C. J. Melick

Manuscript (5.9 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

111

A Multi-year Evaluation of NSSL-WRF Surrogate Severe Thunderstorm Forecasts

Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and R. A. Sobash and A. J. Clark

Handout (12.7 MB)

112

Mapping the Convective Watersheds: Assessing the Predictability of Convective Evolution with Idealized Numerical Simulations

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Krocak

113

NEWS-e: Evaluation of Real-Time Warn-on-Forecast Precipitation Forecasts

114

Quantifying Reporting Biases in the SPC Tornado Database

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks

115

Verification of 10-Meter Wind Forecasts from NSSL-WRF in Predicting Severe Wind-Producing MCSs

Jeffrey M. Milne, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks, I. L. Jirak, and R. M. Hepper

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

116

Forecastability of Meso-γ-scale, Localized, Extreme, Heavy Rainfalls during the Warm Season in Japan using High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts

Ryohei Kato, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Shimizu, K. I. Shimose, T. Maesaka, K. Iwanami, and H. Nakagaki

Poster Session 3C

Microphysical Processes of Severe Storms

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

117

Properties of Hail Storms over China and the United States from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Xiang Ni, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX; and C. Liu, Q. Zhang, and D. J. Cecil

118

Size Sorting of Hail in Supercells from In-Situ Observations

Scott F. Blair, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and J. M. Laflin, K. J. Sanders, and M. R. Kumjian

119

Evaluation of Rimed-Ice Parameterization using an Idealized Supercell Storm and Polarimetric Radar Data Simulator

Marcus R. Johnson, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, H. Morrison, J. A. Milbrandt, and M. Xue

120

Super-Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery Analysis of Two Hailstorms Sampled by HailSTONE

Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair, C. M. Gravelle, K. Bedka, B. Scarino, J. Apke, and C. R. Homeyer

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

121

The Microphysical Characteristics of a Heavy Precipitation Event as Revealed from the Polarimetric Radar and Disdrometer in East China

Lili Xu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao, G. Zhang, and L. Wen

Handout (2.4 MB)

122

Resonance Scattering Effects in Wet Hail Observed by a Dual-Frequency, Dual-Polarization DOW Radar

Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, T. Meyer, K. Kosiba, and J. Wurman

123

Preliminary Analyses of Disdrometer Observations in the 2016 VORTEX-SE Field Campaign

Jessica Bozell, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. T. Dawson II, R. Tanamachi, and S. J. Frasier

124

Aerosol Sensitivities in Idealized Simulations of VORTEX-2 and VORTEX-SE Supercells

Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Guo, M. E. Baldwin, and E. R. Mansell

Handout (4.0 MB)

125

The Oddities of Hail Observations: Just How Big is a Golf Ball?

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and M. K. Tippett

126

Identifying Polarimetric Radar Signatures Aloft Associated with Large and Giant Hail

Poster Session 3D

Numerical Simulations of Severe Storms

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

127

Waterspout Signatures in a Large-eddy Simulation (LES) of Tropical Oceanic Deep Convection

128

Idealized Model-Based Examination of Mesovortex Generation

George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

129

Assessment of the Base-State Substitution Idealized Modeling Technique

Casey E. Davenport, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and M. I. Biggerstaff and C. L. Ziegler

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

130

High-resolution Ensemble Experiments for the Tsukuba City Supercell Tornado in Japan on 6 May 2012

Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and H. Niino

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

131

An Outbreak of Violent European Tornadoes from 1967: Model Reconstruction at Fine Grid Spacing

Jonathan G. Fairman Jr., University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and B. Antonescu and D. M. Schultz

132

Probing Cold Pool Dynamics with a Lagrangian Particle Model

Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang and Y. Tian

133

Quasi-LES simulation of a heavy precipitating Mesoscale Convective System Observed during the HyMeX Campaign

Fanny Duffourg, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and M. Martinet and O. Nuissier

134

Simulated Interaction of an Idealized Squall Line with a Cool Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Tristan Kading, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and K. Lombardo

135

Fine-scale numerical analysis of the sensitivity of the HyMeX IOP16a Heavy Precipitating Event to the the turbulent mixing length parametrization

Maxime Martinet, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and O. Nuissier, F. Duffourg, V. Ducrocq, and D. Ricard

136

The Role of Vertical Grid Spacing in the Simulation of Storms

Jorge Alberto Martins, Federal Univ. of Technology, Londrina, Brazil; and L. D. Martins, R. Hallak, and E. D. Freitas

137

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Controls on Updraft Rotation for the 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and D. C. Dowell, A. J. Hill, and N. Yussouf

138

WRF Simulation of Severe Storm Process Focusing on the Characteristics of Extreme Local Gust near Ground

Tao Tao, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and H. Kawai, M. Kawaguchi, and T. Tamura

139

An Eddy Injection Method for Large-eddy Simulations of Tornado-like Vortices

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Dahl, D. S. Nolan, and R. Rotunno

Session 12A

Radar Observations of Mesocyclones and Tornadoes

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ.

4:30 PM

12A.1

A Mini-Supercell Observed During an Outbreak of Classic Supercells on 9 May 2013

Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith, H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Wienhoff, D. W. Reif, R. Smith, and D. Speheger

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.3 MB)

4:45 PM

12A.2

An Examination of the Structure, Evolution and Asymmetries of the Tornado Debris Signature from the 24 May 2011 El Reno, OK EF5 tornado

Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and H. B. Bluestein and J. C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

12A.3

'Kinematic Observations of the 10 May 2010 Moore, OK Tornadic Debris Signature'

Casey B. Griffin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and R. D. Palmer

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12A.4

Analysis of Polarimetric Radar Signatures in Tornadic Non-supercellular Storms

Scott Loeffler, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

12A.5

Dissipation Characteristics of Long-Duration Tornadoes

Michael M. French, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and D. M. Kingfield

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

12A.6

A Comparison of the Vertical Mesocyclone Structure in Classic and High Precipitation Supercell Thunderstorms

Kate-Lynn Anne Walsh, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. M. Frazier, M. E. Kleinwechter, D. P. Betten, and M. C. Mahalik

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Data Assimilation Techniques and Impacts of Observations

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Dustan Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

4:30 PM

12B.1

Probabilistic Analysis and Prediction of Convective Storms using the Local Particle Filter

Jonathan Poterjoy, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12B.2

Rapid-Scan Radar Data from Supercells and Tornadoes: How Do We Get Science from the Movie?

Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, Z. B. Wienhoff, J. C. Snyder, and H. B. Bluestein

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

12B.3

An Evaluation of the Utility of NWRT Phased Array Radar Observations as Compared to WSR-88D in the Analyses and Forecasts of a Tornadic Supercell Storm

Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, Y. Jung, M. Xue, and J. Cheng

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12B.4

Assimilation of ZDR Columns for Improving Model Spin-Up

Jacob Carlin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, J. C. Snyder, and A. V. Ryzhkov

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

5:30 PM

12B.5

Analysis of the Accuracy of Radar Forward Operators in Simulation of a Supercell Storm

Peter Brian McAward II, NSSL/NOAA and Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao and G. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

12B.6

Constraining Short-Term Storm-Scale Forecasts of Convective Initiation in OSSEs with Dense Surface Observations

Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

Early-Career Professional Networking Event @ The Yardhouse (located just a couple of blocks from the Portland Hotel at, Pioneer Place, 888 SW 5th Avenue, Portland, OR 97204)

Registration

Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

Session 13A

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut

8:30 AM

13A.1

Predictability and Dynamics of Warm-Core Mesoscale Vortex Formation with the 8 May 2009 “Super Derecho” Event

Caleb Grunzke, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13A.2

The Role of Convective-Scale Circulations in the Development of Intense Warm Seclusion Cyclones

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. L. Weisman

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13A.3

An Assessment of Environments Supportive of Discreetly Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Great Basin

Michael P. Seaman, NOAA, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Kruse and R. Graham

9:15 AM

13A.4

A High-Resolution Aerial Survey and Radar Analysis of QLCS Surface Vortex Damage Paths from 31 August 2014

Kevin Skow, NWS, Des Moines, IA; and C. Cogil

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

13A.5

A Proposed Revision to the Definition of "derecho"

Stephen F. Corfidi, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, A. E. Cohen, and C. M. Mead

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13A.6

Two Approaches for Studying Cold Pools in Shear

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Prediction and Analysis of Flooding and Concurrent Hazards

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: David Sills, Environment and Climate Change Canada

8:30 AM

13B.1

Predictability assessment of Heavy Precipitation Events observed during the HyMeX IOP16a based on Convection-Permitting Ensemble Systems

Olivier Nuissier, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and C. Marsigli, B. Vincendon, A. Hally, F. bouttier, A. montani, and T. paccagnella

8:45 AM

13B.2

Short-term Probabilistic Forecasts of Flash Flood Producing Extreme Rainfall Events Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, K. H. Knopfmeier, Y. Wang, and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13B.3

Observations of Extreme Short-term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

13B.4

Extreme Short-term Precipitation in Supercells and Mesovortices: Insights from Numerical Simulations

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

13B.5

On the Role of Storm Motion in Events When Both Tornadoes and Flash Floods Occur at the Same Place and Date

Matthew J. Bunkers, NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and C. A. Doswell III

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13B.6

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events

Kyle J. Pallozzi, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. J. Weiss and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

Session 14A

Studies of Nocturnal Convection

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ.

10:30 AM

14A.1

Can Atmospheric Bores Help Maintain Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems?

Kevin R. Haghi, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Parsons, A. Shapiro, B. Blake, and D. W. Reif

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

14A.2

Nocturnal Severe Thunderstorms Over the Great Plains: Environmental Differences Among CI Modes and Storm Types

Dylan W. Reif, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14A.3

24 June 2015: A Case Study of Elevated Convection Initiation Poleward of a Warm Front during PECAN

Scott Kehler, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and J. Hanesiak

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14A.4

An Examination of the 20 June 2015 Convective Initiation Event during PECAN

Brianna Marlene Lund, University of Alabama-Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14A.5

The Impact of Low-level Moisture Errors on Model Forecasts of an MCS Observed during PECAN

John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and R. S. Schumacher, S. M. Hitchcock, E. R. Nielsen, M. D. Parker, M. C. Coniglio, and C. L. Ziegler

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14A.6

Kinematics and Thermodynamics of the Severe 5-6 July 2015 South Dakota MCS during PECAN

Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, M. D. Parker, R. S. Schumacher, and T. J. Schuur

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Evaluation and Verification of Convective Outlooks and Warnings

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

14B.1

Warnings (Tornado) Facts: Considerations, Reflections, and Perspectives on 30 Years of Warning Performance Metrics in the NWS

Harold E. Brooks, NOAA, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

14B.2

An Investigation of NWS Warning Outbreaks for Severe Convective Events

Zachary S. Bruick, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and C. Karstens

Recorded Presentation

14B.3

An Introduction to the Cultural and Philosophy Changes Needed to Improve Tornado Warnings

11:00 AM

14B.4

The Development, Display, and Preliminary Evaluation of Conditional Supercell Tornado Probabilities

Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and A. R. Dean

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14B.5

An Examination of Conditional Significant Tornado Probabilities on the Outlook Scale as a Function of Convective Mode and Environment

Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith and R. L. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14B.6

Estimated Convective Winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe-Storm Climatology

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Lunch Break

Session 15A

Numerical Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR

1:30 PM

15A.1

Simulation and Analysis of the Initiation and Mesoscale Structures of a Squall Line occurring within a Meiyu Frontal System in East China

Xia Luo, CAPS, Norman, OK; and Z. Sun, M. Xue, K. Zhu, and J. Fei

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15A.2

The Response of a Long-lived Mesoscale Convective System to Changes in Boundary Layer Stability

Manda B. Chasteen, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15A.3

Coastal Crossings of Mid-Atlantic Mesoscale Convective Systems

Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and T. Kading

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15A.4

Suppression of Severe Winds in Simulations of Nocturnal Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

Ryan M. Hastings, NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15A.5

An Examination of the Dynamics of a Rear-Inflow Jet Associated with an Idealized Mesoscale Convective System

Caitlin C. Crossett, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15A.6

The Dependence of the Convective Instability Available to Squall Lines on the Environmental Low-tropospheric Shear: A Layer-lifting Perspective

Diego A. Alfaro, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Forecasting Techniques from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Michael Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL

1:30 PM

15B.1

The 2016 Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and T. L. Hansen, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, A. V. Bates, D. M. Kingfield, T. C. Meyer, C. Golden, and N. Hardin

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15B.2

Application and Evaluation of the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the 2016 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, L. J. Wicker, A. R. Dean, B. T. Gallo, C. Karstens, K. W. Thomas, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Kennedy, J. Markel, G. S. Romine, K. H. Knopfmeier, C. Alexander, K. Fossell, and J. Carley

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15B.3

Insights into Predicting Tornado Development Using NEWS-e Vorticity Forecasts

Jessica M. McDonald, NOAA/SPC/Hollings, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15B.4

Impact of Horizontal Resolution on CAM-Derived Next-Day Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts

Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15B.5

Investigation of the Impact of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Size for Severe Weather Forecasting

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, C. J. Melick, and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (410.4 kB)

2:45 PM

15B.6

4D Visualization of Storm-Scale Forecasts Using VAPOR in the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Keith A. Brewster, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. R. Stratman and R. M. Hepper

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

Poster Session 4A

Convective Hazards

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

140

An Observational Analysis of Two Derecho Events in Southern Brazil

Eliton Lima de Figueiredo, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria UFSM, Santa Maria, Brazil; and E. L. Nascimento and M. I. D. Oliveira

141

Development of Intense Pyroconvection and Ensuing Stratospheric Smoke Injection in Western North America

David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, J. E. Solbrig, and M. D. Fromm

142

Convectively-Induced Severe Wind Gusts in Southern Brazil: Surface Observations, Atmospheric Environment, and Association with Distinct Convective Modes

Vanessa Ferreira, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria UFSM, Santa Maria, Brazil; and E. L. Nascimento

Manuscript (2.0 MB)

143

An Study of Severe Storms and Wind Gusts on High-Power Transmission Towers during a Southern Brazil Campaign

Leonardo Calvetti, UFPEL, Pelotas - RS, Brazil; and R. T. Inouye, C. Beneti Sr., R. L. Neundorf Sr., T. Noronha Sr., B. B. Maske, J. E. Gonçalves, and A. F. Leilte Sr.

144

Study of the Characteristics of Heavy Rain in Korea on August 15 2012, due to Mesoscale Convective System

Jae-Hwan Lim, KMA, Jeonju, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. W. Lee

145

Optimization and Evaluation of Polarimetric C-Band Radar Rainfall Estimators for Organized Convection in Eastern China

Gang Chen, Nanjing Univsersity, Nanjing, China, China; and K. Zhao and G. Zhang

146

Using Random Forest Technique to Create Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities

Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. M. Kuhlman, D. M. Kingfield, and D. J. Gagne II

147

Causes and Implications of the Negative Lightning Jump Prior to the 31 March 2016 EF-2 Tornado during VORTEX-SE

Austin D. Vacek, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. M. Stough, L. D. Carey, and B. L. Medina

149

A Closer Look at Concurrent, Collocated Tornado and Flash Flood Events Observed during the First Year of VORTEX-SE

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. R. Herman and R. S. Schumacher

148

Using a Frequently Updated, Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Term Prediction of Heavy Rainfall

151

A Hydrologic Climatology for Hazard Simplification

Clarice N Dyson, University of Oklahoma/Ernest F. Hollings Scholar, Norman, OK; and R. Smith, T. Lindley, and S. Kruckenberg

152

Predicting 'Double Impact' Concurrent and Collocated Tornadoes and Flash Floods

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen, J. M. Peters, and R. S. Schumacher

153

Organizational Structure and Trigger Mechanism of Rainstorm Cloud Clusters in Central China

Aifang Su, Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, CMA, Zhengzhou, China

Poster Session 4B

Radar Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

154

X-band Radar Observations of the 16 May 2015 Tipton, Oklahoma EF3 Tornado using the Atmospheric Imaging Radar

James M. Kurdzo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Mahre, D. J. Bodine, R. D. Palmer, and T. Y. Yu

155

Doppler Radar and Storm Environment Observations of a Maritime Tornadic Supercell in Sydney, Australia

Harald Richter, Research and Development Branch, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. Taylor and J. S. Soderholm

Manuscript (858.2 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

156

High-Temporal Resolution Observations of the 23 May 2016 Woodward, OK, Tornadic Supercell Using the Atmospheric Imaging Radar

Casey B. Griffin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Bodine, J. M. Kurdzo, A. Mahre, R. D. Palmer, J. Lujan Jr., and A. D. Byrd

157

High-temporal Resolution Observations of the 27 May 2015 Canadian, Texas Tornado using the Atmospheric Imaging Radar

Casey B. Griffin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine, J. M. Kurdzo, and R. D. Palmer

158

The 24 May 2016 Dodge City, KS, Supercell: Just How Many Tornadoes Were There?

Zachary B. Wienhoff, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, D. W. Reif, and K. J. Thiem

159

The Possible Role of Descending Reflectivity Cores During the Intensification of the ‘El Reno Tornado' of 31 May 2013 Observed with a Rapid-Scan, Mobile, Doppler Radar

Kyle J. Thiem, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, J. C. Snyder, and J. B. Houser

160

Radar-detected Mesocyclone Tilt in Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells

Michelle M. Serino, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

Handout (15.6 MB)

161

Mobile Doppler Radar Observations of a Cyclic Supercell that Produced a Multi-Vortex Tornado on 22 May 2016 in the Texas Panhandle

Dylan W. Reif, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Wienhoff, and K. J. Thiem

162

Tornadic Debris Signatures in Tropical Cyclones

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and J. C. Picca

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

163

Dual Doppler Radar Analysis of a Tornadic Quasi-linear Convective System on 04 January 2015

Dustin M. Conrad, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. W. Lyza, K. Knupp, and C. B. Hulsey

Manuscript (687.2 kB)

Handout (20.4 MB)

164

Rare Polarimetric Tornado Debris Signatures (TDS) in the Appalachian Region and the use of Remote Sensing Techniques to Assist with the 24 February 2016 EF3 Survey in Virginia

Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and M. B. Sporer

Handout (6.3 MB)

165

Mobile, X-band, Polarimetric Doppler Radar Observations of the 23 May 2016 Woodward, Oklahoma Tornadoes

Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Seedorf, A. Marmo, S. J. Frasier, and W. Heberling

Manuscript (5.2 MB)

166

Characteristics of Tornado Debris Signatures Associated with Significant Tornadoes between 2010 and 2015

Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and A. K. Baker and J. R. Banghoff

167

Mobile Doppler Radar Observations of a Tornadic Supercell near Springfield, Illinois, on 15 March 2016

Brittany Welch, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

Manuscript (695.8 kB)

Handout (3.9 MB)

168

Z_DR Column Altitudinal Extent in Isolated Tornado-producing Supercells

Adrianne J. Engel, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

169

Quantifying ZDR-KDP Separation in Severe Convective Storms to Assess Tornadic Potential

Scott Loeffler, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian

170

A Possible Case of Mistaken Identity: An Anticyclonic Tornado That (Probably) Never Was

Jeffrey C. Snyder, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff, L. J. Wicker, H. B. Bluestein, and D. W. Reif

Poster Session 4C

Tools and Techniques for Analysis of Severe Weather

Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

171

Energy Dissipation by Tornadoes in Heavily-forested Landscapes

Chris J. Peterson, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and C. M. Godfrey, F. T. Lombardo, and J. B. Cannon

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

172

Using a Three-Dimensional Inertial Frequency to Investigate Vortex-genesis in Supercell Storms

Luke E. Odell, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and S. T. Trevorrow

173

Ground-based Hail and Wind Sensor Networks Operating in Real-time

Shane Bussmann, Understory, Inc., Somerville, MA; and K. E. Willmot and N. L. Homeier

174

Using Google Earth Satellite Imagery to Improve Official Tornado Databases

175

Compact Radar Network Observation Project in Kochi, Japan

Koji Sassa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan

Handout (1.5 MB)

176

Machine Learning for Real-time Prediction of Damaging Straight-line Winds

Ryan A. Lagerquist, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, T. M. Smith, and M. B. Richman

177

Quantifying and Visualizing the “Completeness” of the WSR-88D Archive for Severe Weather Events

Kiel L. Ortega, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Kingfield and T. M. Smith

Handout (2.2 MB)

178

Short Wavelength Infrared Imaging Impacts on Storm Spotting: A Pilot Study

Matthew Seedorf, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi

Manuscript (599.4 kB)

179

Additive Logistic Regression Models for Convective Hazards and their Application to Reanalyses and Climate Scenarios

Anja T. Raedler, Munich Re, Munich, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Pucik, R. Sausen, and E. Faust

180

Intercomparison Between Polarimetric Radar, Lightning, and Satellite Indicators of Storm Severity in a Tornadic Supercell

Michael M. French, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and J. C. Snyder

181

TED: The Tornado Environment Display, An Online Visualization Tool Utilizing Storm Chaser Imagery To Inform Severe Storm Research

Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and S. Talbot, J. T. Allen, and T. Seimon

182

Improving NSSL Azimuthal Shear Calculations Using an Updated Derivation and Range-Based Corrections

Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith, D. M. Kingfield, K. L. Ortega, T. M. Smith, and K. L. Elmore

183

Using 3-D Laser Scanning Technology to Create Digital Models of Hailstones

Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and B. R. Giammanco, H. E. Estes, and T. M. Brown-Giammanco

Handout (1.7 MB)

Session 16A

Microphysical Observations of Severe Storms

Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Matt Kumjian, Penn State Univ.

4:30 PM

16A.1

Observational Studies on Terrain-induced Heavy Rainfall in the Southern Korean Peninsula during Summer in 2015-2016

Dong-In Lee, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. K. Kim, Y. Kang, H. J. Kim, and Y. B. Lee

4:45 PM

16A.2

Overview of Purdue's Mobile Disdrometer Operations During VORTEX-SE

Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and J. Bozell, J. Buckingham, W. L. Downing, D. R. Chavas, H. M. Mallinson, M. I. Biggerstaff, and S. Waugh

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

16A.3

Drop-Size Distribution Measurements in Mesoscale Convective Systems during PECAN

David J. Bodine, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. L. Rasmussen, K. Friedrich, J. Wurman, K. Kosiba, and P. A. Kucera

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

16A.4

A Balloonborne Particle Size, Imaging, and Velocity Probe for In Situ Microphysical Measurements

Sean Waugh, NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. L. Ziegler, D. R. MacGorman, and M. I. Biggerstaff

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

16A.5

Analysis of RaXPol and In-Situ Hail Impact Disdrometer Data in a Hail-producing, Left-moving Supercell in Colorado

Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Weinhoff, D. W. Reif, and A. J. Heymsfield

Recorded Presentation

Session 16B

NWP with Convective-Scale Ensembles

Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD

4:30 PM

16B.1

An Operational Perspective on Convection-Allowing Models and Ensembles in Severe Weather Forecasting

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, J. S. Kain, C. J. Melick, A. J. Clark, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

16B.2

Assessing the Skill of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Severe MCS Winds from the SSEO

Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and J. M. Milne

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (942.8 kB)

5:00 PM

16B.3

Forecasts of Convective Mode using the NCAR WRF-ARW Convective Scale Ensemble

Morris Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz, G. Romine, and R. A. Sobash

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

16B.4

Exploring the use of CAM Ensembles for Next-day Tornado Prediction

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne II, and M. L. Weisman

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

16B.5

Sensitivity of Ensemble Forecasts of Supercells to Initial Condition Uncertainty

Montgomery L. Flora, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, L. J. Wicker, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, and P. S. Skinner

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

16B.6

Ensemble and Probabilistic Prediction of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle-Moore EF5 Tornado

Nathan Snook, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and Y. Jung

Recorded Presentation

Women’s Reception @ Southpark Seafood (901 Southwest Salmon Street, Portland, OR 97205)

Registration

Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

Session 17

Techniques and Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Simulations of Storms

Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

8:30 AM

17.1

Exploring the Sensitivity of Convection Initiation to Grid Spacing in Convection-Allowing NAM Simulations

Eli J. Dennis, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, D. J. Stensrud, P. Markowski, M. Colbert, E. Rogers, and E. Aligo

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

17.2

Exploring the Sensitivity of Convective Storm Characteristics, Dynamics, and Evolution to Grid Spacing in Convection-allowing NAM Simulations

Michael Colbert, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, D. J. Stensrud, Y. Richardson, E. J. Dennis, E. Rogers, and E. Aligo

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

17.3

Inconsistencies Exhibited by Simulated Parcel Trajectories below the Lowest Scalar Model Level

Andrew P. Vande Guchte, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

17.4

A Lagrangian Perspective on Convective Downdrafts

Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

17.5

Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial Condition Resolution

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. M. Murillo, M. L. Flora, and D. M. Wheatley

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

17.6

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Targeted Observations of Supercell Thunderstorms

George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

Session 18

Climatologies of Severe Weather, Part II

Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )

Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Adam Houston, Univ. of Nebraska

10:30 AM

18.1

Environments of Northeast Severe Convection with Poor Predictive Skill

Matthew Vaughan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang and L. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

18.2

Tornado Frequency in the U.S. Related to the Global Wind Oscillation

Victor A. Gensini, College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, IL; and A. Marinaro

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

18.3

Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and T. Fricker

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

18.4

Observed Low-level Cloud Morphology Associated with Tornadogenesis Events During the Southeastern United States Cool Season

Christopher A. Lisauckis, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

11:30 AM

18.5

An Updated and Expanded Climatology of Severe Weather Parameters for Subtropical South America as Derived from Upper Air Observations and CFSR-CFSv2 Data

Ernani L. Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria UFSM, Santa Maria, Brazil; and M. Foss, V. Ferreira, and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.8 MB)

11:45 AM

18.6

Structure and Environment of Tornado-Spawning Extratropical Cyclones around Japan

Eigo Tochimoto, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and H. Niino

Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.5 MB)

Closing Remarks and Student Award Presentation

Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )

Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

Conference Adjourns

28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Sunday, 6 November 2016

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 6 November 2016

Monday, 7 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

8:50 AM-10:10 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016

10:10 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

8:00 PM-11:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Thursday, 10 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

7:30 PM-10:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

Friday, 11 November 2016

7:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 11 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 11 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016

12:00 PM-12:10 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016

12:10 PM-12:15 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016

Sunday, 6 November 2016

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 6 November 2016

Monday, 7 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

8:50 AM-10:10 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016

10:10 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

8:00 PM-11:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016