28th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Program Chairs: James Marquis , Center for Severe Weather Research ; Jana Houser , Ohio University Chapter of the American Meteorological Society

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Sunday, 6 November 2016

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 6 November 2016


Registration Opens
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

Monday, 7 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016


Registration continues throughout the conference
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

8:50 AM-10:10 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016

10:10 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 November 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 2
Climatologies of Severe Weather, Part I
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC
10:45 AM
2.2
Future Changes in Severe Thunderstorm Environments over Europe
Tomas Pucik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, L. Tijssen, and A. T. Westermayer
11:00 AM
2.3
A Global Climatology of Reanalysis-Derived Parameters for Deep Moist Convection
Jonathan G. Fairman Jr., University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and B. Antonescu and D. M. Schultz
11:15 AM
2.4
Beyond the Mean: Trends in United State Convective Environments
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and C. Lepore and M. K. Tippett

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 3
Results from the VORTEX-SE Field Program
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research
1:45 PM
3.2
2:30 PM
3.5
An Overview of Texas Tech Operations during VORTEX-SE 2016
Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and E. C. Bruning, J. Dahl, D. C. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, A. J. Hill, and V. Chmielewski
2:45 PM
3.6
Purdue-UMass Mobile Radar Observations Collected during VORTEX-Southeast 2016
Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and S. J. Frasier, W. Heberling, J. Waldinger, M. Seedorf, and J. Bozell

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016


Poster Session 1A
Analysis of High-Impact Severe Weather Events
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
1
A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado'
David Sills, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and M. E. Giguere and J. Henderson
Manuscript (5.3 MB)

3
Damage Survey of the North Texas Tornadoes: 26 December 2015
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and M. Fox, D. Cavanaugh, and M. Huffman
Manuscript (3.4 MB)

6
Mesoscale Vortex that Caused Marine Accidents due to a Sudden Gusty Wind in the Southwestern Part of the Sea of Japan on 1 September 2015
Eigo Tochimoto, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase

9
Peculiar Supercell Tornadoes caused by Typhoon ‘Neogri'
Soichiro Yuasa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (25.2 MB)

11
On the Relationship between Large Hail and Polarimetric Signatures at C-Band: a Case Study in Sierras de Córdoba, Argentina
Luciano Vidal, National Meteorological Service, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and P. Salio, M. Rugna, and S. W. Nesbitt


Poster Session 1B
Operational and Societal Response to Severe Weather
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
15
Energy and population elasticity of tornado casualties
Tyler Fricker, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

Handout (881.6 kB)

17
A Hybrid Physical-Statistical Severe Thunderstorm Risk Model for Europe
Christopher Neal Bednarczyk, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and E. D. Robinson, M. Parker, J. Luo, and C. Kafali

18
Tornado Hazard Mapping for Tornado-Resistant Design of Buildings and Infrastructure
Long Phan, DOC, Gaithersburg, MD; and M. Levitan and L. A. Twisdale Jr.

19
Probabilistic Modeling of Tornado Path Length Intensity Variation Using F/EF-Scale Damage Data
Melissa K. Faletra, Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and L. A. Twisdale Jr. and S. S. Banik
Manuscript (1.9 MB)

20
Frequency Analysis of EF-Scale Tornado Damage Indicators
Melissa K. Faletra, Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and L. A. Twisdale Jr.
Manuscript (1.1 MB)


Poster Session 1C
Severe Weather Environments: Regional and Local Variations, Terrain Effects
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
26
The Effects of Land Cover Type on Tornado Intensity in the Southeastern USA
Kelly M. Butler, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and J. B. Houser

29
Increases in Wind Shear and Helicity During the AET Period
Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

30
Nocturnal Significant Hail and the May 11, 2016 Storms
Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

31
Mesoscale Convective System Characterization over Plains and Topography in Southeastern South America
Luciano Vidal, National Meteorological Service, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and P. Salio, E. J. Zipser, and D. A. Vila

33
Quantifying the Distance to Supercell-Boundary Interactions
Kathleen M. Magee, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. E. Davenport

34
Atmospheric Factors for the Orographic Precipitation Enhancement over Mt. Jiri, Korea
Yunhee Kang, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. I. Lee, D. K. Kim, J. H. Jeong, and Y. S. Bang


Poster Session 1D
Tornado and Supercell Dynamics
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
36
Low-Level Vorticity Budget Analysis of a Simulated Long-Lived Violent Tornado
Yue Yin, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and C. A. Finley, L. Orf, B. D. Lee, and R. Wilhelmson

37
Exploring the Influence of Outflow Surges on Developing and Mature Tornadoes using a Toy Model
Valérian Jewtoukoff, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski and Y. Richardson

38
Intensification of the Low-Level Updraft in Supercells Preceding Tornadogenesis
Shelby Robertson, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

41
A Model for an Attractor in Sasaki's Entropic Balance Theory
William A. Frost, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN; and P. Belík, D. P. Dokken, M. M. Shvartsman, and K. Scholz

Handout (1.8 MB)

42
Thermodynamics Equations in Tornado Layer
Douglas P. Dokken, University of St. Thomas, St.Paul, MN; and P. Belik, K. Scholz, and M. M. Shvartsman

Handout (535.2 kB)

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 4
Results from Tornado-Focused Field Programs
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Michael M. French, Stony Brook Univ.
5:00 PM
4.2
The TWIRL (Tornado Winds from In-situ and Radars at Low-level) Project
Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman
5:15 PM
4.3
Very Fine-Scale Dual-Doppler and In Situ Analysis of a Strong Tornado
Josh Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and H. B. Bluestein, K. A. Kosiba, D. W. Reif, P. Robinson, and Z. B. Wienhoff
5:45 PM
4.5
A WRF-DART Study of the Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercells Intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010
Alicia Klees, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson and G. Romine

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 7 November 2016


Reception
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016


Registration
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 5A
Tools and Techniques for the Analysis of Storms
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ.
8:30 AM
5A.1
Visualization of Tornado using Funnel and Debris Clouds
Minoru Noda, Tokushima Univeresity, Tokushima, Japan; and M. Hachiya and F. Nagao
Manuscript (419.6 kB)

8:45 AM
5A.2
Results from the CLOUD-MAP Field Campaign and Implications for Severe Storm Observations with UAS
Jamey Jacob, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and P. B. Chilson, A. Houston, and S. Smith
9:00 AM
5A.3
The Effects of SAILS on the Derivation of Vertically Integrated Products within the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor Framework
Anthony E. Reinhart, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS & NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Kingfield
Recording files available
Session 5B
Operational and Social Responses to Severe Weather
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Kimberly E. Klockow, NOAA/OAR/Office of Weather and Air Quality
8:45 AM
5B.2
Beyond probability: Providing information to warning forecasters using the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-forecast system for ensembles (NEWS-e)
James Correia Jr., Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and D. LaDue, K. H. Knopfmeier, C. Karstens, and D. M. Wheatley
9:00 AM
5B.3
The Impact of Severe Weather on Traffic Volume
Gabriel S. Garfield, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. Smith
9:15 AM
5B.4A
Tornadoes in Europe: An Underestimated Threat
Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz, P. Groenemeijer, and A. M. Holzer
9:30 AM
5B.5A
A Billion Dollar Flash Flood in Toronto - Challenges for Forecasting and Nowcasting
David Sills, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Ashton, S. Knott, S. Boodoo, J. Klaassen, S. Bélair, and Y. H. Yang
9:45 AM
5B.6
Observed and Forecast Changes In United States Tornado Exposure
Stephen M. Strader, Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. Krmenec

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016


Coffee Break - Cosponsored by AccuWeather
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 6A
Numerical Simulations of Environmental Impacts on Storms
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ.
10:45 AM
6A.2
Simulated Effects of Urban Environments on the Dynamics of a Supercell Thunderstorm
Larissa J. Reames, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud
11:00 AM
6A.3
Examining Storm Evolution Within Idealized Heterogeneous Environments
Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
11:15 AM
6A.4
The Impact of Variations in Upper-Level Shear on Simulated Supercells
Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and H. A. Ramsay, H. Richter, S. T. Siems, and M. J. Manton
11:30 AM
6A.5
11:45 AM
6A.6
How Much does “Backing Aloft” Actually Impact a Supercell?
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
Recording files available
Session 6B
Cataloging Tornado Events and Damage
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Gabe Garfield
10:30 AM
6B.1
About the ASCE Tornado Wind Speed Estimation Standards Committee
James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Office of Chief Learning Officer/Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK
10:45 AM
6B.2
Addressing Interconnections between the Built and Natural Environments through Post-Event Damage Surveys
Franklin T. Lombardo, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and C. M. Godfrey and C. J. Peterson
11:00 AM
6B.3
A Methodology for Improving Tornado Damage-Based Intensity Ratings
Lawrence A. Twisdale Jr., Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and S. S. Banik, P. J. Vickery, L. Phan, and M. Levitan
11:15 AM
6B.4
Tornado Database Cleansing and Augmentation for Use in Tornado Risk Modeling
Melissa K. Faletra, Applied Research Associates, Raleigh, NC; and L. A. Twisdale Jr., M. B. Hardy, M. Levitan, and L. Phan
11:30 AM
6B.5
Development and Implementation of Japanese Enhanced Fujita Scale
Yukio Tamura, Tokyo Polytechnic University, Atsugi, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Niino, M. Ito, H. Kikitsu, J. Maeda, Y. Okuda, H. Sakata, Y. Shoji, S. Suzuki, and Y. Tanaka
11:45 AM
6B.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 7A
Regional and Local Variations of Storm Environments and Terrain Effects
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Robert Trapp, University of Illinois
1:45 PM
7A.2
Assessing the Influence of Topography on Convective Storm Environments Using High-Resolution Operational Model Output
Branden Katona, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski
2:00 PM
7A.3
Self-Organizing Maps: Probing Spatial Patterns in Tornadic Near-Storm Environments
Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith
2:15 PM
7A.4
SPC Perspectives on the 24 August 2016 Tornado Outbreak in Indiana and Ohio
Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and S. J. Weiss
2:45 PM
7A.6
Severe Convection in Central Argentina: Storm Modes and Environments
Stephen W. Nesbitt, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and P. Borque, K. L. Rasmussen, P. Salio, R. J. Trapp, L. Vidal, M. Rugna, and J. Mulholland
Recording files available
Session 7B
NWP Applications of Data Assimilation
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL
1:30 PM
7B.1
Warn-on-Detection to Warn-on-Forecast by 2020?
Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and J. S. Kain
2:00 PM
7B.3
A Realtime Weather-Adaptive 3DVAR Analysis and WRF model Forecast System with Automatic Storm Positioning and On-demand Capability
Yunheng Wang, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, T. A. Jones, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, L. J. Wicker, and J. S. Kain
2:15 PM
7B.4
“Big Data Assimilation” for 30-second-update 100-m-mesh Numerical Weather Prediction
Takemasa Miyoshi, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, M. Kunii, J. J. Ruiz, Y. Maejima, S. Otsuka, K. Kondo, H. Seko, S. Satoh, T. Ushio, K. Bessho, H. Tomita, S. Nishizawa, T. Yamaura, and Y. Ishikawa

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016


Poster Session 2A
Climatologies of Severe Weather Environments and Events
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
43
A Climatology of Sounding-Derived Parameters for Deep, Moist Convection in Europe
Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and J. G. Fairman Jr. and D. M. Schultz

44
A History of Tornadoes in Europe from Aristotle to Alfred Wegener
Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and H. Ricketts and D. M. Schultz

48
Hail Climatology for Brisbane, Australia, Derived from Single-Polarization Radar
Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and J. R. Peter, H. A. Ramsay, S. T. Siems, M. J. Manton, and A. Protat

Handout (1.3 MB)

50
Analysis of Convective Mode in Severe Thunderstorm Events across Eastern Parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains
Brandon J. Centeno, NOAA/Hollings, Norman, OK; and A. E. Cohen, S. F. Piltz, S. J. Corfidi, J. B. McGavock, L. B. Carlaw, A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, and J. W. Rogers

52
Perspectives on Updraft Helicity Climatologies from Convection-allowing Ensembles
James Correia Jr., Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK

Poster 55 has moved. Now paper 14A.2

59
Tornadoes and the Nocturnal Transition: Will they Persist?
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Peters, E. R. Nielsen, and R. S. Schumacher

61
Comparison of Convective Parameters in MPI-ESM Regional and Global Decadal Hindcasts to ERA-Interim Reanalysis
Lars Tijssen, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer

62
A Climatology of Dryline Convection in the Southern Great Plains
Trevor Mitchell, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz

63
Insights from Composite Environments of High-Shear, Low-CAPE Severe Convection
Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker
Manuscript (2.0 MB)

Handout (8.5 MB)


Poster Session 2B
Data Assimilation Techniques and Applications
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
66
Analysis of the 6 September 2015 Tornadic Storm around the Tokyo Metropolitan Area using a 3DVAR and Incremental Analysis Updates Coupling
Ken-Ichi Shimose, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Shimizu, R. Kato, S. I. Suzuki, T. Maesaka, Y. Susse, K. Kieda, R. Misumi, and K. Iwanami

72
Performance of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) during VORTEX-Southeast
Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, R. A. Sobash, G. J. Creager, C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker

Handout (5.1 MB)

74
Weather Radar Data assimilation Impact in Very Short Range Forecasting - a Squall Line Case Study in Brazil
Rafael Toshio Inouye, SIMEPAR - Parana Meteorological System, Curitiba, Brazil; and L. Calvetti, J. E. Gonçalves, B. B. Maske, R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, F. L. R. Diniz, E. P. Vendrasco, D. Herdies, L. G. G. D. Goncalves, and A. F. Leite

Handout (4.9 MB)

75
Sensitivities of Polarimetric Radar Forward Operators
Jeffrey C. Snyder, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, D. T. Dawson II, Y. Jung, and A. Khain


Poster Session 2C
Overviews and Results of Field Programs
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
76
Characterization of the Dryline in Alberta: Observations from UNSTABLE 2008
Neil M. Taylor, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and D. M. L. Sills, J. Hanesiak, C. D. Smith, and J. C. Brimelow
Manuscript (3.1 MB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

77
Mesoscale Convective Systems during 2011 Identified from Surface Pressure Array
Alexander A. Jacques, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Horel and E. T. Crosman

79
Simulated Nocturnal Convective Systems from the PECAN Field Experiment
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, and T. J. Schuur

80
Utilization of Multiple Platforms in a High-Resolution Tornado Damage Survey: The 31 March 2016 Hartselle-Priceville, Alabama EF2 Tornado during VORTEX-SE
Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. L. Calamaio, A. L. Ravenscraft, A. Staarmann, D. M. Conrad, P. Tucker, R. Wade, K. R. Knupp, L. A. Schultz, T. P. Barron, B. C. Carcione, K. D. White, J. R. Walker, T. R. Lee, M. Buban, E. J. Dumas Jr., P. Owen, M. Warner, and K. Harvey

81
NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NSTORM) Project
Christopher J. Schultz, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, T. J. Lang, J. Srikishen, J. L. Case, A. L. Molthan, B. T. Zavodsky, J. Bailey, R. J. Blakeslee, and G. Jedlovec

83
A Significant Tornado Near a Frontogenetical Boundary During VORTEX-SE
Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. W. Lyza, R. Wade, K. Knupp, and W. Wyatt

86
The Doppler On Wheels and CSWR Surface Observational Facility
Josh Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, B. Pereira, T. Meyer, R. Humphrey, A. Frambach, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis

87
Analysis of a Severe MCS and Nocturnal Tornadogenesis sampled by PECAN on 5-6 July 2015
Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, C. L. Ziegler, R. S. Schumacher, M. D. Parker, E. R. Mansell, M. I. Biggerstaff, and T. J. Schuur

87A

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 8A
Microphysical Processes in Severe Storms
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ.
5:15 PM
8A.4
Large Accumulations of Small Hail
Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Z. J. Lebo
Recording files available
Session 8B
Development of High-Resolution Forecast Models
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/OAR/NSSL
4:30 PM
8B.1
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Development for Deterministic and Ensemble Prediction
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, T. T. Ladwig, M. Hu, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Beck, J. A. Hamilton, E. P. James, S. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt
4:45 PM
8B.2
Development of a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) for Severe Weather Forecasting
David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. Beck, S. G. Benjamin, M. Hu, T. Ladwig, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. S. Skinner, and D. M. Wheatley
5:30 PM
8B.5
Real-time Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Forecasting Experiments for NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast Project
Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, and G. J. Creager
5:45 PM
8B.6
An Evaluation of MCS Prediction with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016


Registration
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 9
Lightning
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Sean Waugh, NSSL
9:00 AM
9.1
The Impact of Total Lightning Information in the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model
John L. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. J. Pavolonis, J. Sieglaff, and J. C. Brunner
9:45 AM
9.4
Flash Size Distributions Characterized by Mobile LMA Deployments During VORTEX-SE
Eric C. Bruning, Texas Tech Univ, Lubbock, TX; and V. C. Chmielewski, C. C. Weiss, J. Dahl, A. J. Hill, C. J. Schultz, and J. Bailey

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 10
Tornado and Vortex dynamics
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State Univ.
11:00 AM
10.4
The Role of Surface Drag in Tornadogenesis within an Idealized Supercell Simulation
Brett Roberts, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, A. D. Schenkman, and D. Dawson

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 11A
Numerical Simulations of Supercells
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ.
1:30 PM
11A.1
Analysis and Prediction of a Rare EF4 Tornado on June 23, 2016 in Northern Jiangsu Province, China
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Zhu, Z. Sun, K. Zhao, M. Wang, and S. Sun
1:45 PM
11A.2
Simulations of Violently Tornadic Supercells
Leigh Orf, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and B. D. Lee, C. A. Finley, R. B. Wilhelmson, and A. L. Houston

2:15 PM
11A.4
2:30 PM
11A.5
Surface Layer Influences on Supercell Thunderstorms
Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. R. Guarriello
2:45 PM
11A.6
Recording files available
Session 11B
Results from the MPEX Field Program
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR
1:30 PM
11B.1
Verification of Near-Storm Environment Analyses and Forecasts Using MPEX Upsonde Observations
Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang
1:45 PM
11B.2
2:00 PM
11B.3
Examination of Mesoscale Feedbacks on Convective Scale Predictability during MPEX
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, and M. E. Baldwin
2:15 PM
11B.4
The Influence of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment
Alexandra Keclik, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, and G. S. Romine

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016


Poster Session 3
Forecasting Techniques: Evaluation of Convective Outlooks and Warnings
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
88
WSR-88D Radar Parameters Associated with Tornado Warning False Alarms
Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. C. Varian

89
New Verification Techniques for FACETs: Geospatial Warning Verification System Performance on the 2007-2015 Storm-based Tornado Warning Database
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith

Handout (3.6 MB)

91
A Glance at the Relationship between Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Rotation Tracks and National Weather Service (NWS) Tornado Warnings
Alyssa V. Bates, NWS/OU CIMMS Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue

95
Probabalistic Convective Warnings and the Hazard Services Program
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross and T. L. Hansen

96
Further Analysis and Verification of Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Tornado Outlooks
Alex Erwin, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame and G. Marion

Handout (436.7 kB)


Poster Session 3A
Forecasting Techniques: Methods for Severe Weather Prediction
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
97
Improving Spread Characteristics in a Convection Allowing Ensemble
Brock Burghardt, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

98
Use of Convective Initiation Information Derived from GOES Satellite Data in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System
Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, and J. R. Mecikalski

Handout (3.5 MB)

99
Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region
Patrick N. Gatlin, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil, W. A. Petersen, J. L. Case, and J. R. Bell

101
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Supporting 2016 NOAA HWT and HMT
Fanyou Kong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, N. Snook, K. W. Thomas, and G. Zhao

Handout (1.2 MB)

102
Comparison of the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity to other Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (228.3 kB)

Handout (888.8 kB)

103
Feature-Relative Forecast Evaluation for Convective Systems
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

104
Application of Additive Logistic Regression Models for Convective Hazards to NWP
Lars Tijssen, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, A. T. Westermayer, and R. Sausen

106

Poster Session 3B
Forecasting Techniques: Verification of Severe Weather
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
110
Verification of Severe Weather Proxies from the NSSL-WRF for Hail Forecasting
Nathan A. Wendt, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and C. J. Melick
Manuscript (5.9 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

116
Forecastability of Meso-γ-scale, Localized, Extreme, Heavy Rainfalls during the Warm Season in Japan using High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts
Ryohei Kato, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Shimizu, K. I. Shimose, T. Maesaka, K. Iwanami, and H. Nakagaki


Poster Session 3C
Microphysical Processes of Severe Storms
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.; James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado
119
120
Super-Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery Analysis of Two Hailstorms Sampled by HailSTONE
Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and S. F. Blair, C. M. Gravelle, K. Bedka, B. Scarino, J. Apke, and C. R. Homeyer
Manuscript (1.8 MB)

122
Resonance Scattering Effects in Wet Hail Observed by a Dual-Frequency, Dual-Polarization DOW Radar
Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, T. Meyer, K. Kosiba, and J. Wurman

124
Aerosol Sensitivities in Idealized Simulations of VORTEX-2 and VORTEX-SE Supercells
Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Guo, M. E. Baldwin, and E. R. Mansell

Handout (4.0 MB)

125
The Oddities of Hail Observations: Just How Big is a Golf Ball?
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and M. K. Tippett


Poster Session 3D
Numerical Simulations of Severe Storms
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
128
Idealized Model-Based Examination of Mesovortex Generation
George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

129
130
High-resolution Ensemble Experiments for the Tsukuba City Supercell Tornado in Japan on 6 May 2012
Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and H. Niino
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

131
An Outbreak of Violent European Tornadoes from 1967: Model Reconstruction at Fine Grid Spacing
Jonathan G. Fairman Jr., University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and B. Antonescu and D. M. Schultz

132
Probing Cold Pool Dynamics with a Lagrangian Particle Model
Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang and Y. Tian

133
Quasi-LES simulation of a heavy precipitating Mesoscale Convective System Observed during the HyMeX Campaign
Fanny Duffourg, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and M. Martinet and O. Nuissier

135
Fine-scale numerical analysis of the sensitivity of the HyMeX IOP16a Heavy Precipitating Event to the the turbulent mixing length parametrization
Maxime Martinet, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and O. Nuissier, F. Duffourg, V. Ducrocq, and D. Ricard

136
The Role of Vertical Grid Spacing in the Simulation of Storms
Jorge Alberto Martins, Federal Univ. of Technology, Londrina, Brazil; and L. D. Martins, R. Hallak, and E. D. Freitas

138

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 12A
Radar Observations of Mesocyclones and Tornadoes
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ.
4:30 PM
12A.1
A Mini-Supercell Observed During an Outbreak of Classic Supercells on 9 May 2013
Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith, H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Wienhoff, D. W. Reif, R. Smith, and D. Speheger
5:00 PM
12A.3
5:30 PM
12A.5
5:45 PM
12A.6
Recording files available
Session 12B
Data Assimilation Techniques and Impacts of Observations
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Dustan Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
5:00 PM
12B.3
5:15 PM
12B.4
Assimilation of ZDR Columns for Improving Model Spin-Up
Jacob Carlin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, J. C. Snyder, and A. V. Ryzhkov
5:30 PM
12B.5
Analysis of the Accuracy of Radar Forward Operators in Simulation of a Supercell Storm
Peter Brian McAward II, NSSL/NOAA and Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao and G. Zhang
5:45 PM
12B.6

8:00 PM-11:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 November 2016


Early-Career Professional Networking Event @ The Yardhouse (located just a couple of blocks from the Portland Hotel at, Pioneer Place, 888 SW 5th Avenue, Portland, OR 97204)

Thursday, 10 November 2016

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016


Registration
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 13A
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut
9:30 AM
13A.5
A Proposed Revision to the Definition of "derecho"
Stephen F. Corfidi, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, A. E. Cohen, and C. M. Mead
Recording files available
Session 13B
Prediction and Analysis of Flooding and Concurrent Hazards
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: David Sills, Environment and Climate Change Canada
8:30 AM
13B.1
Predictability assessment of Heavy Precipitation Events observed during the HyMeX IOP16a based on Convection-Permitting Ensemble Systems
Olivier Nuissier, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and C. Marsigli, B. Vincendon, A. Hally, F. bouttier, A. montani, and T. paccagnella

8:45 AM
13B.2
Short-term Probabilistic Forecasts of Flash Flood Producing Extreme Rainfall Events Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, K. H. Knopfmeier, Y. Wang, and J. Zhang
9:00 AM
13B.3
Observations of Extreme Short-term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
9:15 AM
13B.4
Extreme Short-term Precipitation in Supercells and Mesovortices: Insights from Numerical Simulations
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 November 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 14A
Studies of Nocturnal Convection
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
14A.1
Can Atmospheric Bores Help Maintain Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems?
Kevin R. Haghi, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Parsons, A. Shapiro, B. Blake, and D. W. Reif
11:15 AM
14A.4
An Examination of the 20 June 2015 Convective Initiation Event during PECAN
Brianna Marlene Lund, University of Alabama-Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp
11:30 AM
14A.5
The Impact of Low-level Moisture Errors on Model Forecasts of an MCS Observed during PECAN
John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and R. S. Schumacher, S. M. Hitchcock, E. R. Nielsen, M. D. Parker, M. C. Coniglio, and C. L. Ziegler
11:45 AM
14A.6
Kinematics and Thermodynamics of the Severe 5-6 July 2015 South Dakota MCS during PECAN
Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, M. D. Parker, R. S. Schumacher, and T. J. Schuur

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 15A
Numerical Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR
2:00 PM
15A.3
2:30 PM
15A.5
Recording files available
Session 15B
Forecasting Techniques from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Michael Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL
1:30 PM
15B.1
The 2016 Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and T. L. Hansen, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, A. V. Bates, D. M. Kingfield, T. C. Meyer, C. Golden, and N. Hardin
1:45 PM
15B.2
Application and Evaluation of the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the 2016 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, L. J. Wicker, A. R. Dean, B. T. Gallo, C. Karstens, K. W. Thomas, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Kennedy, J. Markel, G. S. Romine, K. H. Knopfmeier, C. Alexander, K. Fossell, and J. Carley
2:15 PM
15B.4
Impact of Horizontal Resolution on CAM-Derived Next-Day Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts
Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong
2:30 PM
15B.5
Investigation of the Impact of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Size for Severe Weather Forecasting
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, C. J. Melick, and S. J. Weiss

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016


Poster Session 4A
Convective Hazards
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
141
Development of Intense Pyroconvection and Ensuing Stratospheric Smoke Injection in Western North America
David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, J. E. Solbrig, and M. D. Fromm

146
Using Random Forest Technique to Create Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities
Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. M. Kuhlman, D. M. Kingfield, and D. J. Gagne II

149
A Closer Look at Concurrent, Collocated Tornado and Flash Flood Events Observed during the First Year of VORTEX-SE
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. R. Herman and R. S. Schumacher

151
A Hydrologic Climatology for Hazard Simplification
Clarice N Dyson, University of Oklahoma/Ernest F. Hollings Scholar, Norman, OK; and R. Smith, T. Lindley, and S. Kruckenberg

152
Predicting 'Double Impact' Concurrent and Collocated Tornadoes and Flash Floods
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. R. Nielsen, J. M. Peters, and R. S. Schumacher

153

Poster Session 4B
Radar Observations of Tornadoes and Supercells
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
154
X-band Radar Observations of the 16 May 2015 Tipton, Oklahoma EF3 Tornado using the Atmospheric Imaging Radar
James M. Kurdzo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Mahre, D. J. Bodine, R. D. Palmer, and T. Y. Yu

160
Radar-detected Mesocyclone Tilt in Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells
Michelle M. Serino, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

Handout (15.6 MB)

162
167
Mobile Doppler Radar Observations of a Tornadic Supercell near Springfield, Illinois, on 15 March 2016
Brittany Welch, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame
Manuscript (695.8 kB)

Handout (3.9 MB)

170
A Possible Case of Mistaken Identity: An Anticyclonic Tornado That (Probably) Never Was
Jeffrey C. Snyder, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff, L. J. Wicker, H. B. Bluestein, and D. W. Reif


Poster Session 4C
Tools and Techniques for Analysis of Severe Weather
Location: Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
171
Energy Dissipation by Tornadoes in Heavily-forested Landscapes
Chris J. Peterson, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and C. M. Godfrey, F. T. Lombardo, and J. B. Cannon
Manuscript (1.0 MB)

175
Compact Radar Network Observation Project in Kochi, Japan
Koji Sassa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan

Handout (1.5 MB)

176
Machine Learning for Real-time Prediction of Damaging Straight-line Winds
Ryan A. Lagerquist, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, T. M. Smith, and M. B. Richman

177
Quantifying and Visualizing the “Completeness” of the WSR-88D Archive for Severe Weather Events
Kiel L. Ortega, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Kingfield and T. M. Smith

Handout (2.2 MB)

179
182
Improving NSSL Azimuthal Shear Calculations Using an Updated Derivation and Range-Based Corrections
Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith, D. M. Kingfield, K. L. Ortega, T. M. Smith, and K. L. Elmore

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 16A
Microphysical Observations of Severe Storms
Location: Pavilion Ballroom East (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Matt Kumjian, Penn State Univ.
4:30 PM
16A.1
Observational Studies on Terrain-induced Heavy Rainfall in the Southern Korean Peninsula during Summer in 2015-2016
Dong-In Lee, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. K. Kim, Y. Kang, H. J. Kim, and Y. B. Lee

5:00 PM
16A.3
Drop-Size Distribution Measurements in Mesoscale Convective Systems during PECAN
David J. Bodine, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. L. Rasmussen, K. Friedrich, J. Wurman, K. Kosiba, and P. A. Kucera
Recording files available
Session 16B
NWP with Convective-Scale Ensembles
Location: Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
4:30 PM
16B.1
An Operational Perspective on Convection-Allowing Models and Ensembles in Severe Weather Forecasting
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, J. S. Kain, C. J. Melick, A. J. Clark, and M. C. Coniglio
4:45 PM
16B.2
Assessing the Skill of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Severe MCS Winds from the SSEO
Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and J. M. Milne
5:00 PM
16B.3
5:15 PM
16B.4
Exploring the use of CAM Ensembles for Next-day Tornado Prediction
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne II, and M. L. Weisman
5:30 PM
16B.5
5:45 PM
16B.6

7:30 PM-10:00 PM: Thursday, 10 November 2016


Women’s Reception @ Southpark Seafood (901 Southwest Salmon Street, Portland, OR 97205)

Friday, 11 November 2016

7:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016


Registration
Location: Plaza Suite (Hilton Portland )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 11 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 17
Techniques and Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Simulations of Storms
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
8:30 AM
17.1
Exploring the Sensitivity of Convection Initiation to Grid Spacing in Convection-Allowing NAM Simulations
Eli J. Dennis, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson, D. J. Stensrud, P. Markowski, M. Colbert, E. Rogers, and E. Aligo
8:45 AM
17.2
Exploring the Sensitivity of Convective Storm Characteristics, Dynamics, and Evolution to Grid Spacing in Convection-allowing NAM Simulations
Michael Colbert, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, D. J. Stensrud, Y. Richardson, E. J. Dennis, E. Rogers, and E. Aligo
9:15 AM
17.4
A Lagrangian Perspective on Convective Downdrafts
Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang
9:30 AM
17.5

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 11 November 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Pavilion Foyer (Hilton Portland )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016

Recording files available
Session 18
Climatologies of Severe Weather, Part II
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Adam Houston, Univ. of Nebraska
10:30 AM
18.1
11:00 AM
18.3
Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and T. Fricker
11:45 AM
18.6
Structure and Environment of Tornado-Spawning Extratropical Cyclones around Japan
Eigo Tochimoto, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and H. Niino

12:00 PM-12:10 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016


Closing Remarks and Student Award Presentation
Location: Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Cochairs: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado; Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

12:10 PM-12:15 PM: Friday, 11 November 2016


Conference Adjourns