This study assesses the value of using lightning jumps to forecast severe weather during the 2014 and 2015 convective seasons, defined as June–August, in the northeastern United States. Total lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is used to calculate lightning jumps using a 2-sigma lightning jump algorithm with a minimum threshold of 5 flashes min−1. Following individual cells, lightning jumps are verified against severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). If a lightning jump occurs within 45-minutes prior to a severe report, it verifies as a hit. If a lightning jump occurs with no corresponding severe report, it is classified as a false alarm.
There is a high probability of detection (POD; 75%) and a high false alarm rate (FAR; 55%) for severe-weather days during the 2015 convective season. Previous studies that applied a similar methodology to limited areas outside of the Northeast using lightning mapping arrays have a similarly high POD (79%), but a much lower FAR (36%). The anomalously high FAR of 55% for our sample is likely due, in part, to the location and timing of some convection, occurring in regions of low population density and/or overnight. These results suggest lightning jumps have limited value when used alone, but also suggest that storm reports have significant gaps.
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