Wednesday, 9 November 2016
Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has been generating the Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/) in real-time since 2011. Since that time, the SSEO has proven its utility in SPC operations on a year-round basis and has fared quite well when compared to formally designed convection-allowing ensembles during past Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). As such, the SPC SSEO is generally considered the standard against which other convection-allowing ensembles are compared and provides a baseline for the performance of a future operational convection-allowing ensemble. During the 2016 HWT SFE, a number of ensemble subsets, including ensemble Kalman filter-based systems, from the Community-Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) were available for comparison with the SSEO. The results comparing the utility of CLUE subsets to the SSEO for severe weather forecasting will be presented.
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