88 WSR-88D Radar Parameters Associated with Tornado Warning False Alarms

Wednesday, 9 November 2016
Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. C. Varian

Weather warnings that result in no occurrence of severe weather, or false alarms, are a source of concern on improving the effectiveness of warnings. This is particularly true with NWS tornado warnings. Several studies have been done to analyze NWS tornado warning false alarms (Broztge, 2011) and the societal response to tornado warning false alarms (Trainor et al., 2015; Barnes et al., 2007; Simmons and Sutter, 2009). While Brotzge identified six trends with high false alarm rates (FAR) from 18,763 NWS tornado warnings 2000-2004, he was not able study the magnitude of the rotation associated with each storm that prompted the warning. 

This study investigates tornado warnings issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Peachtree City, GA from October 2007 to June 2016.  The relationships, if any, between high tornado warning FAR and radar-derived rotation, time of day, season, warning polygon population density and other fields will be presented.

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