Session 14B Evaluation and Verification of Convective Outlooks and Warnings

Thursday, 10 November 2016: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
Pavilion Ballroom West (Hilton Portland )
Host: 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair:
James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Warning Decision Training Branch, Norman, OK

Papers:
10:30 AM
14B.1
Warnings (Tornado) Facts: Considerations, Reflections, and Perspectives on 30 Years of Warning Performance Metrics in the NWS
Harold E. Brooks, NOAA, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
14B.2
An Investigation of NWS Warning Outbreaks for Severe Convective Events
Zachary S. Bruick, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and C. Karstens
Recorded Presentation

14B.3
An Introduction to the Cultural and Philosophy Changes Needed to Improve Tornado Warnings

11:00 AM
14B.4
The Development, Display, and Preliminary Evaluation of Conditional Supercell Tornado Probabilities
Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and A. R. Dean
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
14B.5
An Examination of Conditional Significant Tornado Probabilities on the Outlook Scale as a Function of Convective Mode and Environment
Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith and R. L. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14B.6
Estimated Convective Winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe-Storm Climatology
Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

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