18.2 Tornado Frequency in the U.S. Related to the Global Wind Oscillation

Friday, 11 November 2016: 10:45 AM
Pavilion Ballroom (Hilton Portland )
Victor A. Gensini, College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, IL; and A. Marinaro

Global relative angular momentum, and the first time derivative, are used to explain nearly an order of magnitude of the variability in 1994–2013 United States boreal spring tornado occurrence.  Known as the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), this dynamic framework accounts for changes in the global budget of angular momentum through tropical convection and extratropical torquing terms. It is shown herein that tornadoes are more likely to occur in low angular momentum base states and less likely to occur in high angular momentum base states. When excluding weak GWO days, a maximum average of 3.9 (E)F1+ tornadoes per day were found during phase 1. This decreases to a minimum of 0.9 (E)F1+ tornadoes per day during phase 5. Composite environmental analysis suggests increases/decreases in tornado occurrence are closely associated with anomalies in tropospheric ingredients necessary for tornadic storms. In addition, tornado frequency days exceeding the 90th percentile are shown to be favored when the global relative angular momentum budget and first time derivative are negative (GWO phases 1 and 2), as are significant tornado events ([E]F2+).  Implications for using GWO as a predictor for tornado forecasting are also discussed.
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