17 A Hybrid Physical-Statistical Severe Thunderstorm Risk Model for Europe

Monday, 7 November 2016
Broadway Rooms (Hilton Portland )
Christopher Neal Bednarczyk, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and E. D. Robinson, M. Parker, J. Luo, and C. Kafali

Severe thunderstorms in Europe can pose a significant risk to the insurance industry. Events such as the 1984 Munich hailstorm, 2013 Storm Andreas, and 2014 Storm Ela each caused more than EUR 1 billion insured loss. Catastrophe models allow users to anticipate losses from various types of events. They are composed of multiple components with the final goal being expected probabilities of loss. In order to appropriately estimate loss likelihood, a comprehensive view of the hazard must be created. In the hazard module a set of events is generated to represent the full range of possible severe thunderstorm events, with varying frequency, intensity, and area impacted. Results from the development of a severe thunderstorm risk model for Europe will be presented, highlighting the hybrid physical-statistical approach. One of the main data sources used is the European Severe Weather Database, which is an archive severe weather reports. Like similar datasets that rely on human observers, there are clear biases that must be overcome to build a comprehensive view of risk. This report archive is supplemented with datasets like reanalysis and radar.
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