29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 15D

 Probabilistic Forecasting
 Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
8:00 AM15D.1Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data  extended abstract wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Matsueda
8:15 AM15D.2Verification of the National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilities and Future Plans  extended abstract wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. Knabb, and M. DeMaria
8:30 AM15D.3A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model ensemble  extended abstract wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. Bowyer and R. Knabb
8:45 AM15D.4Storm surge probability forecasts for Hurricane Ike   wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome and A. A. Taylor
9:00 AM15D.5On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities   wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. M. Finocchio, J. S. Goerss, and J. Hansen
9:15 AM15D.6Understanding probabilistic forecasting and verification in tropical cyclones  
Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
9:30 AM15D.7Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities  extended abstract wrf recordingRecorded presentation
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown

Friday, 14 May 2010: 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tucson Salon A-C

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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