Session 15D |
| | Probabilistic Forecasting |
| | Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
|
| 8:00 AM | 15D.1 | Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data 
 Recorded presentation
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Matsueda |
| 8:15 AM | 15D.2 | Verification of the National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilities and Future Plans
Recorded presentation
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. Knabb, and M. DeMaria |
| 8:30 AM | 15D.3 | A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model ensemble
Recorded presentation
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. Bowyer and R. Knabb |
| 8:45 AM | 15D.4 | Storm surge probability forecasts for Hurricane Ike
Recorded presentation
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome and A. A. Taylor |
| 9:00 AM | 15D.5 | On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities
Recorded presentation
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. M. Finocchio, J. S. Goerss, and J. Hansen |
| 9:15 AM | 15D.6 | Understanding probabilistic forecasting and verification in tropical cyclones
Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen |
| 9:30 AM | 15D.7 | Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities
Recorded presentation
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown |