An analysis of Atlantic hurricane seasons in the Pre-HURDAT era (1751-1850)

An extensive database that contains the tracks of known tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean after 1850 is currently available and is commonly known by the abbreviation HURDAT or North Atlantic Hurricane Database. While this database is an invaluable tool to public and private agencies alike, some of the deadliest hurricanes on record occurred prior to 1851. Among these was the deadliest known Atlantic hurricane, the Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed an estimated 22,000 people and was one of eight listed tropical cyclones during that season. This study revolves around the identification and quantification of tropical cyclones that existed during the one hundred year period from 1751-1850 known as the "Pre-HURDAT era" by the author.

While previous researchers have compiled works on tropical cyclones that occurred prior to 1851, they have yet to attempt the development of a full database, complete with cyclone tracks, for any period prior to 1851. Those who have analyzed tracks focused on a certain area of the Atlantic as opposed to studying the basin as a whole. This study is essentially a synthesis of all available historical and scientific data in order to analyze the tracks of every tropical cyclone witnessed by man during the Pre-HURDAT era. The goal of this study is to add valuable data to HURDAT in order to determine long term trends in tropical cyclone frequency.

During the first phase of this study, nearly 500 candidate cyclones have been uncovered and at least 60% of them have enough valid information available to analyze partial or full tracks. The author references several published chronologies including Chenoweth (2006), Millas (1968), and Ludlum (1963). Online newspaper archives and the ICOADS dataset are also being added to the list of references to piece together the movements of these tropical cyclones. Additional data is scattered in archives in both Caribbean countries and the European nations that once ruled them. The author hopes to acquire this data in the future as well. Several important years have already been studied and will be used as case studies. These include the deadliest hurricane season on record (1780) and the most active year in the Pre-HURDAT period (1837).