29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (10-14 May 2010)

Conference Registration

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Conference Registration Continues through Friday MAY 14

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 1A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Data Issues & Datasets

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University

8:30 AM

1A.1

An analysis of Atlantic hurricane seasons in the Pre-HURDAT era (1751-1850)

Steven A. LaVoie, Ball State University, Muncie, IN; and J. S. M. Coleman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.2

A reanalysis of the 1944-1953 Atlantic hurricane seasons: The first decade of aircraft reconnaissance

Andrew B. Hagen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1A.3

Reassessing Pre-Satellite Era Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Climatology Using 20th Century Reanalysis Data

Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.4

How intense were they? - A sampling study on how recent Category 5 hurricanes would be depicted in the historical record

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen and C. Carrasco

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.5

Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best track wind speeds

Michael C. Kruk, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and K. R. Knapp

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (197.0 kB)

Session 1B

Monsoons: North American Monsoon

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA

8:30 AM

1B.1

Analysis of an upper-level inverted trough during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment

Zach Finch, NOAA/NWS, Cheyenne, WY; and R. H. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

8:45 AM

1B.2

Simulations of a North American Monsoon Gulf Surge Event

Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (511.9 kB)

9:00 AM

1B.3

Land surface–precipitation interactions in the North American Monsoon: Sensitivity to land surface model initialization and coupling

Wendilyn J. Kaufeld, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

9:15 AM

1B.4

Possible causes for an earlier demise of the North American Monsoon

Paola Arias, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu and D. Ren

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.5

Multi-year observations of the complex relationship between sea breezes and rainfall along the western Sierra Madre during the North American Monsoon

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and V. M. Vincente, D. J. Gochis, and P. E. Johnston

Recorded Presentation

Session 1C

Tropical Cyclones at Landfall

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

8:30 AM

1C.1

Wavelet analyses of turbulence in the hurricane boundary layer during landfalls

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang and F. Masters

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1C.2

An examination of stability changes allowing for increased gustiness over the Mid Atlantic from tropical systems

John A. Billet, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. Titlow III

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1C.3

The landfall of Tropical Storm Ida: Frontal structures and boundary layer variability

Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL ; and D. Phillips and T. Coleman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1C.4

Tropical cyclone tornadoes: Synoptic scale influences and forecasting applications

Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. A. Schultz

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (533.7 kB)

9:30 AM

1C.5

Calculating storm surge return periods for coastal locations on the Gulf of Mexico

Hal F. Needham, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA

Recorded Presentation

Session 1D

Extratropical Transition: Physical processes

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of Arizona

8:30 AM

1D.1

Impacts of extratropical transition of Northern Hemisphere available potential energy

Eyad H. Atallah, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and R. McTaggart-Cowan

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1D.2

Large-scale flow reconfigurations over North America associated with recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (282.6 kB)

9:00 AM

1D.3

An observational study of the downstream Rossby wave response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Daniel Keyser, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault, J. M. Cordeira, and L. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1D.4

Downstream development during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: observational evidence and Influence on storm evolution

Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. Liu and H. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (362.6 kB)

9:30 AM

1D.5

Extratropical transition in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Kyle S. Griffin, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 2A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Long-Term Variability

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James P. Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

10:15 AM

2A.1

Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Scale over the western North Pacific and Related Environmental Control Mechanism

Ming Ying, Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China

10:30 AM

2A.2

Interannual sea-surface temperature oscillations and tropical cyclone activity over the North Pacific basin

Hye-Mi Kim, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry

10:45 AM

2A.3

Sensitivity of the Strongest Hurricanes to Ocean Warmth

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Handout (558.5 kB)

Presentation PDF (411.2 kB)

11:00 AM

2A.4

Predictability of hurricane activity and impacts

Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and I. Gonzales III and R. J. Hergert Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (487.3 kB)

11:15 AM

2A.5

Interdecadal variability of the intense typhoons in autumn

Chih-Hua Tsou, Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Chen and J. H. Chen

11:30 AM

2A.6

Impacts of Global Warming Events on Tropical Cyclones

Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin

11:45 AM

2A.7

A 4500-year record of hurricane frequency in the Gulf of Mexico archived in a North Florida sinkhole

Philip Lane, MIT, Woods Hole, MA; and J. Donnelly, J. Woodruff, and A. Hawkes

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.7 MB)

Session 2B

Monsoons II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong

10:15 AM

2B.1

The nature of summer-time precipitation over north-western Australia

Gareth J. Berry, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria, Australia; and M. Reeder and C. Jakob

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

2B.2

Role of air-sea interaction for seasonal prediction of Australian monsoon rainfall

Harry H. Hendon, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbounre, Vic, Australia; and E. P. Lim

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2B.3

Atmospheric Mixed Layers over the South China Sea during the Summer Monsoon

Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.4

Land-Atmosphere Interaction in IPCC AR4 Climate Models

Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and D. H. Bromwich

11:15 AM

2B.5

Observational evaluation of a convective Quasi-Equilibrium view of Monsoons

Ji Nie, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and W. R. Boos and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2B.6

Feedback mechanisms in monsoon transitions

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2B.7

Decadal change of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Yoshiyuki Kajikawa, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and B. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Session 2C

Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP)

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: William R. Cotton, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

10:15 AM

2C.1

The Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP): A HAMP Contribution

Joe Golden, Golden Research & Consulting, Boulder, CO; and W. L. Woodley

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

2C.2

Simulation of a landfalling hurricane using spectral bin microphysical model: effects of aerosols on hurricane intensity (the HAMP contribution)

Alexander P. Khain, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and B. Lynn and J. Dudhia

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

10:45 AM

2C.3

Effects of aerosols on the Tropical Cyclone genesis as seen from simulations using spectral bin microphysics model (the HAMP contribution)

Barry Lynn, Weather It Is, LTD, Efrat, Israel; and A. P. Khain

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.8 MB)

11:00 AM

2C.4

Spray microphysics and effects on surface fluxes as seen from simulations using a Lagrangian model with spectral bin microphysics

Jacob Shpund, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (707.8 kB)

11:15 AM

2C.5

Can aerosols explain hurricane prediction errors?

Michal Clavner, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. Rosenfeld

11:30 AM

2C.6

Mechanisms of lightning formation in deep maritime clouds and hurricanes (The HAMP contribution)

Nir Benmoshe, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Khain, A. Pokrovsky, and V. Phillips

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

11:45 AM

2C.7

Feasibility study of the modification of the intensity of tropical cyclones by seeding CCN with an aircraft : A HAMP Project

Gustavo G. Carrio, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Recorded Presentation

Session 2D

Extratropical Transition: Forecast challenges

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center

10:15 AM

2D.1

Defining the Lifecycle of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones using Remotely-Sensed Imagery

David E. Kofron, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. F. Pineros, E. A. Ritchie, and J. S. Tyo

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

10:30 AM

2D.2

Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

Doris Anwender, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and C. Cardinali and S. C. Jones

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (663.2 kB)

10:45 AM

2D.3

Goal oriented adaptivity for tropical cyclones

Leonhard Scheck, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Baumann, S. C. Jones, V. Heuveline, and M. N. Juckes

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (687.1 kB)

11:00 AM

2D.4

The structure of singular vectors associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclones

Simon T. Lang, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Karlsruhe, BW, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

11:15 AM

2D.5

Distillation of key storm evolution characteristics from ensemble forecasts through path clustering

Jenni L. Evans, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Chiaromonte and P. K. Don

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2D.6

Investigation of predictability during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

11:45 AM

2D.7

Support vector machine techniques to predict tropical cyclone re-intensification following extratropical transition

Steven R. Felker, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. S. Tyo, E. A. Ritchie, and I. Vaughn

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (648.6 kB)

Session 3A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Seasonal Forecasting

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kevin Walsh, University of Melbourne

1:15 PM

3A.1

Verification of 12 years of NOAA Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. J. Pasch and G. D. Bell

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (105.1 kB)

1:30 PM

3A.2

Intraseasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean

James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3A.3

The non-stationary correlations between West African precipitation and Atlantic hurricane activity

Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink and S. Kotthaus

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

2:00 PM

3A.4

Caribbean/Central American hurricane landfall probabilities

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (86.1 kB)

2:15 PM

3A.5

Environmental signals in property damage losses from hurricanes

Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (223.9 kB)

2:30 PM

3A.6

On the development of seasonal tropical cyclone prediction schemes for the Fiji region

Savin S. Chand, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh and J. Chan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.7

Statistical forecast model for tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region

Angelika Werner, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Tropical Cyclone Formation: African Easterly Waves

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sarah C. Jones, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie

1:15 PM

3B.1

The tropical cyclogenesis "hole" in the Caribbean

Kay L. Shelton, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

3B.2

Genesis of Pre-hurricane Felix (2007) and the Role of the Wave Critical Layer

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and M. T. Montgomery and T. J. Dunkerton

1:45 PM

3B.3

Isentropic descent beneath the Saharan Air Layer and its impact on tropical cyclogenesis

Michael L. Diaz, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (583.0 kB)

2:00 PM

3B.4

African Easterly Wave Evolution Pre- and Post-tropical Cyclogenesis

Bryce Paul Tyner, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

2:15 PM

3B.5

Dynamics of African easterly Wave storm track

Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.6

Orographic and moisture effects on the evolution of the pre-Debby (2006) African easterly waves-mesoscale convective systems over Africa

Guoqing Tang, N. C. A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin, J. Spinks, and W. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.7

Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves

Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, J. Curry, and P. Webster

Recorded Presentation

Session 3C

HFIP: High-Resolution Modeling I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James Doyle, NRL

1:15 PM

3C.1

NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Project Plan and Status Report

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. L. Gall and F. Toepfer

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

3C.2

The HFIP High-Resolution Hurricane Forecast test: overview and results of track and intensity forecast verification

Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, and J. Wolff

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

1:45 PM

3C.3

The HWRFx Modeling System: The High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, K. Yeh, R. F. Rogers, S. D. Aberson, F. D. Marks Jr., and T. Quirino

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3C.4

Does enhanced horizontal resolution improve hurricane intensity forecasts?

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang, J. Dudhia, R. Torn, S. Fredrick, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, S. Cavallo, and J. M. Done

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3C.5

Performance of the GFDL hurricane model during HFIP High-Resolution Hurricane Test Project

Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas, M. A. Bender, and T. Marchok

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3C.6

COAMPS-TC Forecasts for HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Tests

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, Y. Jin, and J. D. Doyle

2:45 PM

3C.7

The impact of adjusting physics in the university of wisconsin nonhydrostatic modeling system (UW-NMS) on tropical cyclone evolution

Zachary Gruskin, University of Wisconsin , Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis, G. J. Tripoli, and T. Hashino

Recorded Presentation

Session 3D

Remote Sensing:Passive microwave techniques

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

1:15 PM

3D.1

Improvement of passive microwave rainfall retrievals over the mountain area in Japan

Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and H. Ashiwake, S. Kida, T. Kubota, T. Manabe, and K. Okamoto

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

3D.2

The use of satellite-derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery for identifying Saharan Air Layers affecting tropical cyclones

Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/CSND, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and J. Dunion

1:45 PM

3D.3

Measuring the structure of hurricanes with a microwave sounder

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

2:00 PM

3D.4

The Megha-Tropiques mission

Remy Roca, LMD IPSL Paris, Paris, France

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3D.5a

Recent Statistical Analyses of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander and C. Velden

Recorded Presentation

3D.5

Updates to a Global Microwave Tropical Cyclone Archive

2:45 PM

3D.6

Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speed Measurement Accuracy using the Airborne Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

Ruba Amarin, Univ. Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and L. Jones, J. Johnson, C. Ruf, T. L. Miller, and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

3:00 PM

3D.7

Development, capabilities, and impact on wind analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, R. Amarin, R. Atlas, M. C. Bailey, P. G. Black, C. D. Buckley, S. S. Chen, S. El-Nimri, R. E. Hood, J. W. Johnson, W. L. Jones, C. S. Ruf, D. E. Simmons, E. Uhlhorn, and C. M. Inglish

Recorded Presentation

Session

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 4A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Modeling Studies

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

3:30 PM

4A.1

TCs rainfall and TCs rainfall efficiency simulated in a high resolution climate model

A.S. Daloz, CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Scientifiques, Toulouse, France; and F. Fabrice Chauvin and F. Frank Roux

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

4A.2

Modeling the tropical cyclone-induced biological flux of carbon Into the thermocline

Neil L. Zimmerman, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (405.8 kB)

4:00 PM

4A.3

The effects of relative versus absolute SST on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single column model

Hamish A. Ramsay, NASA GISS/ Columbia University, New York, New York; and A. H. Sobel

4:15 PM

4A.4

Stratospheric cooling and tropical cyclones

Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (266.6 kB)

4:30 PM

4A.5

Simulation of tropical cyclone precursors and dynamically-downscaled simulations of tropical cyclones over an Australian domain

Sally Lavender, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; and K. Walsh

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.6

Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium

Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.7

Application of scale-selective data assimilation to seasonal simulation of tropical cyclones

Shiqiu Peng, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China

Session 4B

Tropical Cyclone Formation: Physical Processes

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael M. Bell, NPS

3:30 PM

4B.1

Analyses of Ring of maximum Wind, Ring of Maximum Pressure Gradient, Inflow angle and RMW in Tropical Storm

P. Kumar, MIT College of Engineering, Pune-411029, Maharashtra, India

Presentation PDF (590.9 kB)

3:45 PM

4B.2

Developing a parameter to detect imminent TC formation based on large-scale flow properties

Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and R. Dare

4:00 PM

4B.3

What are the characteristics of convective systems leading up to tropical cyclogenesis? A multisatellite investigation

Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4B.4

The creation of an equivalent potential temperature reservoir in the eye of a deepening tropical cyclone

Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Dolling

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.5

Microphysical properties of developing versus non-developing cloud clusters during tropical cyclogenesis

Nathan D. Johnson, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. C. Conant and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (560.3 kB)

4:45 PM

4B.6

Pre-depression vortex development from “unspectacular” convection: A genesis case study of tropical storm Gert (2005)

Kevin J. Mallen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis, M. T. Montgomery, S. A. Braun, and P. D. Reasor

5:00 PM

4B.7

A spatial filter approach to determining the role of convection on the evolution of a mesoscale vortex

Glenn Creighton, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 4C

HFIP: High-Resolution Modeling II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML

3:30 PM

4C.1

The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT) and its role in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, T. Jensen, and C. Williams

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

4C.2

An overview of the COAMPS-TC system applied during HFIP and T-PARC

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, J. Cummings, R. M. Hodur, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, K. D. Sashegyi, and J. Schmidt

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

4C.3

Real-time Cloud-resolving Ensemble Analysis and Forecast Assimilating Airborne Doppler Radar Observations during the 2008/2009 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Fuqing Zhang, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Weng, J. Gamache, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4C.4

A high resolution version of operational HWRF: forecast ability and computational challenges presented by an operational environment

Sam Trahan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, J. Oconnor, L. C. Sparling, and B. Lapenta

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

4:30 PM

4C.5

Hurricane forecasts during the 2009 season using a suite of mesoscale models

Dr. Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. K. Biswas

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4C.6

High-resolution global ensemble hurricane forecasts using an experimental ensemble Kalman filter based analysis and prediction system

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Fiorino, T. Hamill, S. G. Benjamin, and P. Pegion

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4C.7

Dynamical 4D vortex initialization for GFDL's global high-resolution hurricane modeling system

S.-J. Lin, NOAA, Pricenton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

Session 4D

Remote Sensing: Applications

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL

3:30 PM

4D.1

Satellite-based intensity estimates of tropical cyclones: where do we go in the future?

John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (203.7 kB)

3:45 PM

4D.2

Tropical cyclone convection and intensity analysis using differenced infrared and water vapor imagery

Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

4D.3

Tropical Cyclone Center-Fixing in Microwave or Infrared Imagery

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4D.4

The CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) tropical cyclone intensity algorithm

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden, J. Hawkins, T. Olander, and A. Wimmers

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (357.9 kB)

4:30 PM

4D.5

Potential impacts of a Dual Frequency Scatterometer on tropical cyclone and marine analysis and forecasting

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. Knabb

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4D.6

New Wind Measurement Capabilities With The High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Profiler

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Li and J. Carswell

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4D.7

Tropical cyclone dynamics revealed by MISR high-resolution, height-resolved, cloud-track winds and cloud top heights

Michael J. Garay, Raytheon Corporation, Pasadena, CA; and K. Mueller, D. Wu, C. Moroney, V. Jovanovic, and D. J. Diner

Session

Ice Breaker Reception

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session

Reflections on the Life and Science of Joanne Simpson

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 5A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Climate Controls on Extreme Events

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

8:00 AM

5A.1

The North Atlantic subtropical high and tropical cyclone tracks

Angela J. Colbert, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5A.2

Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks: observations and implications

James P. Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. J. Camargo and M. Sitkowski

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (807.4 kB)

8:30 AM

5A.3

Climate control of global tropical storm days: El Niño and global warming

Bin Wang, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Yang, Q. Ding, and F. Huang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5A.4

Impact of climate variability and change on Hurricane extremes

Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

Influence of Sea Surface Warming on Long-Term Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation

Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Tao and Q. Ding

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5A.6

The effects of early season ENSO on peak season tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

Lance E. Steele, Weathernews America, Inc., Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

9:30 AM

5A.7

Analysis of National Hurricane Center track forecast errors based upon geographic location

Hannah C. Barnes, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont and J. Kossin

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Tropical Cyclone Formation: Numerical Models

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS

8:00 AM

5B.1

Measuring environmental favorability for tropical cyclogenesis: Genesis parameters and point-downscaling

Michael G. McGauley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5B.2

Numerical studies on the role of mesoscale convective systems during the formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003)

Xinyan Lu, National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China; and K. K. W. Cheung and Y. Duan

8:30 AM

5B.3

Ensemble simulation of cyclone Nargis by a Global Cloud-system-resolving Model -- modulation of cyclogenesis by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Hiroshi Taniguchi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and W. Yanase and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5B.4

Observations and high-resolution modeling of tropical cyclone formation: Developing and non-developing cases over the west Pacific

Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5B.5

Multiscale interactions in the formation of a Tropical Cyclone simulated in a global cloud-system-resolving model

Hironori Fudeyasu, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang, M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, H. Miura, and W. Yanase

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5B.6

Evolution of multi-scale vortex in the development of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

Juan Fang, Nanjing University, China, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5B.7a

Application of synthetic GOES imagery to the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

Yi Jin, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and L. Grasso

Recorded Presentation

5B.7

Evaluation of tropical cyclogenesis in operational global models and their ensembles

Session 5C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Rapid Intensification

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC

8:00 AM

5C.1

Axisymmetric and asymmetric processes of tropical cyclone-like vortex during the rapid intensification phase

Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5C.2

Inner-core vacillation cycles during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina

Chi Mai Nguyen, Monash University, Melbourne, VICTORIA, Australia; and M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5C.3

Convective scale evolution during rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone

John Molinari, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5C.4

Vertical velocity and microphysical distributions related to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005)

Eric C. Meyers, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5C.5

Modulation of eyewall convection by eye-eyewall mesovortices during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo (1997)

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and P. D. Reasor

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5C.6

Rapid deepening of tropical cyclones in the northeastern Tropical Pacific: The relationship with ocean eddies

Fernando Oropeza, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and G. B. Raga

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (972.4 kB)

9:30 AM

5C.7

Evaluation of GFDL wind field structure during rapid intensification TC cases using H*Wind

Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and B. Annane and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

Session 5D

African Climate and Weather I

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin

8:00 AM

5D.1

Analysis of easterly waves in the YOTC period

Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. A. Janiga

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5D.2

Simulations of the propagation and diurnal cycle of organized convection in Africa

A. G. Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and S. B. Trier

Recorded Presentation

5D.3

The interannual variability of pre-storm environments of intense convective systems in West Africa: Application to future climate scenarios

8:45 AM

5D.4

Regional analysis of West African monsoonal convective systems

Nick Guy, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. A. Rutledge and B. Dolan

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5D.3a

The Role of Guinea Highlands Convection on Tropical Cyclogenesis

Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (628.4 kB)

9:15 AM

5D.5

Role of cross-equatorial SST gradients and orography in African easterly wave genesis

Sara C. Vieira, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

9:30 AM

5D.6

Easterly wave structural evolution over West Africa and the East Atlantic

Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.3 MB)

9:45 AM

5D.7

Controls on the interannual variability of rainfall over western equatorial Africa

Amin K. Dezfuli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 6A

Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Climate Change Modeling

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT

10:15 AM

6A.1

Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

6A.2

Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport as simulated by a high resolution coupled general circulation model

Enrico Scoccimarro, INGV-CMCC, Bologna, Italy; and S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, A. Sanna, P. Oddo, and A. Navarra

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6A.3

Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to a Global Warming Scenario in the IPCC AR4 CGCMs

Jinhua Yu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Techonology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang and K. P. Hamilton

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.4

North American regional climate simulations: Dynamical downscaling experiments to predict hurricane activity under global warming

Asuka Suzuki-Parker, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and G. Holland, J. Done, and C. Bruyere

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6A.5

Lessons learned from North American Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Experiments

Cindy Bruyere, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland, A. Suzuki-Parker, and J. Done

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6A.6

Tropical Cyclogenesis Potential in Climate Change: An Application of Artificial Neural Networks

Zheng Ki Yip, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6A.7

Projected changes in cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian region

Craig Arthur, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (142.8 kB)

Session 6B

Tropical Cyclone Formation: Prediction

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC

10:15 AM

6B.1

Climatology of Dvorak classifications to support operational probabilistic tropical cyclogenesis forecasts

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University/COAPS, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Knabb and D. P. Brown

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

6B.2

Development and applications of a new Genesis Potential Index

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6B.3

Operational forecast on Asian Monsoon region cyclone genesis and tracks

Jun Jian, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China; and P. Webster

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.4

A global TC development pathway climatology

R. McTaggart-Cowan, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and T. J. Galarneau Jr., L. Bosart, R. W. Moore, and O. Martius

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.5

Late season tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico

Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6B.6

Tropical cyclogenesis associated with extratropical precursors in the North Atlantic

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6B.7

Late season tropical cyclone formation over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Rachel G. Mauk, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Recorded Presentation

Session 6C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity: MPI and Environmental Influences

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

6C.1

Energy Production, Frictional Dissipation, and Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Xu

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

6C.2

Critical alignment number and maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

Irakli G. Shekrildaze, Georgian Technical University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Presentation PDF (249.9 kB)

10:45 AM

6C.3

Dynamical constraints on the intensity and size of tropical cyclones

Christoph Schmidt, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6C.4

Quantifying environmental control on tropical cyclone intensity change

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, B. Fu, and T. Li

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6C.5

A new paradigm for intensity change of tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear

Michael Riemer, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and M. E. Nicholls

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6C.6

The evolution of Humberto in a sheared environment

Klaus Dolling, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6C.7

Arc clouds in the tropical cyclone environment: Implications for TC intensity change

Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. D. Eastin, D. S. Nolan, J. Hawkins, and C. Velden

Recorded Presentation

Session 6D

African Climate and Weather II

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin

Chair: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:15 AM

6D.1

Assessment of recent rainfall anomalies in West Africa

Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

10:30 AM

6D.2

Coastal rainfall onset in the West African monsoon

Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. Thorncroft and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6D.3

Some dynamical aspects of the precipitation regime over western equatorial Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. Jackson

11:00 AM

6D.4

Variability of Atmospheric Moisture during the Boreal Spring in West Africa

Roberto J. Mera, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC; and F. H. M. Semazzi and A. G. Laing

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

11:15 AM

6D.5

Anomalous northern hemispheric summer mid-tropospheric circulation over West Africa

Isaac K. Tetteh, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and F. H. M. Semazzi

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (705.8 kB)

11:30 AM

6D.6

Dynamics of the West African westerly jet and its association with Sahel precipitation

Bing Pu, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6D.7

Theory and observations of West African monsoon onset

Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX

Session 7A

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR

1:15 PM

7A.1

Onshore Natural Gas and Agriculture Producer Sensitivity to Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Risk

Joshua Darr, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Davis and M. Russo

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

7A.2

Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclones in the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Experiments

Cindy Bruyere, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland, J. Done, and A. Suzuki-Parker

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.3

A revised model for the radial profiles of hurricane winds

Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fritz and J. Belanger

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.4

The effect of warmer SST on a stochastic Atlantic hurricane model

Jessica K. Turner, RMS, London, United Kingdom; and K. Coughlin, T. Laepple, S. Jewson, E. Bellone, and D. Rowlands

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.5

Use of dynamical weather and climate models for tropical cyclone risk assessment

James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.6

Interpretation of decadal tropical cyclone forecasts for decision-support: application to insurance and disaster risk reduction along the US Gulf Coast and the Caribbean

Nicola Ann Ranger, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom; and L. Smith, F. Niehoerster, R. Muir-Wood, and H. Kunreuther

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.7

A New Paradigm Shift from Weather to Quantitative Impact Forecasts

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. Geernaert and R. Luettich

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Tropical Cyclone Structure I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

1:15 PM

7B.1

Vertical distribution of radar reflectivity in intense Atlantic tropical cyclone eyewalls observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar

Deanna A. Hence, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

7B.2

Simulated impacts of environmental parameters on tropical cyclone size and structure change

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. R. Felker and D. R. Stovern

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (633.8 kB)

1:45 PM

7B.3

Idealized investigation of mechanisms linking tropical cyclone eye wall vorticity structure to interactions of the inflow and outflow with the environment

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.4

The vertical structure of tangential winds in simulated tropical cyclones

Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7B.5

Impact of vortex structure on tropical cyclone response to diabatic heating

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, J. L. Vigh, and W. H. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.6

Analysis of Five Types of Dropwindsonde Dynamic and Thermodynamic Profiles in Tropical Cyclones

Tom J. Philp, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.7

Eye formation by dynamical adjustment of the tropical cyclone's inner core

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Session 7C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Theory

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter Black, NRL

1:15 PM

7C.1

Analysis of axisymmetric hurricanes in statistical equilibrium

Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

1:30 PM

7C.2

Entropy ventilation in an axisymmetric tropical cyclone model

Brian H. Tang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (205.0 kB)

1:45 PM

7C.3

Tropical-cyclone intensification: Part I: The role of the boundary layer

Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's University, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7C.4

Tropical cyclone intensification: Part II: The role of air-sea moisture fluxes

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7C.5

Tropical cyclone intensification: Sensitivity to the boundary-layer parameterization in a numerical model

Gerald L. Thomsen, Ludwig Maximilian's University, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7C.6

The concepts of Rossby length and Rossby depth and their application to hurricane dynamics

Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. D. McNoldy

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7C.7

Non-linear response of hurricane vortices to heating perturbations in an observational regime

Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor

Recorded Presentation

Session 7D

African Climate and Weather III

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher Thorncroft, SUNY Albany

7D.1

Numerical simulation of the 8 September 2006 MCS during AMMA: evaluation of the dynamics and microphysics using synthetic observations

1:30 PM

7D.1a

Tropical Storm Debby: Genesis dynamics and the relevance of the Saharan air layer

Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7D.2

Multi-scale analysis of the 25-27 July 2006 convective period over Niamey: Doppler radar observations and simulations

Christelle Barthe, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint Denis Cedex 9, Reunion; and N. Asencio, J. P. Lafore, M. Chong, B. Campistron, and F. Cazenave

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7D.3

The Relationship Between the Air-Sea Interactions and Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Jamese D. Sims, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Jenkins and R. Grumbine

2:15 PM

7D.4

Microphysical characterisation of west African MCS anvils

Dominique Bouniol, CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. Delanoë, C. Duroure, A. Protat, V. Giraud, and G. Penide

2:30 PM

7D.5

Convection in an African Easterly Wave over West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic: A model case study of Helene (2006)

Juliane Schwendike, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

2:45 PM

7D.6

Hurricane Helene (2006) and the Saharan air layer

Sarah C. Jones, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and J. Schwendike, H. Vogel, and B. Vogel

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

3:00 PM

7D.7

Prediction of dry-season precipitation in tropical West Africa and its relation to forcing from the extratropics

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 1

Posters: TCs and Climate, Monsoons, HFIP, TC Formation, Extratropical Transition, Industry Applications, TC Intensity, African Climate and Weather

Location: Arizona Ballroom 7 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Patrick Harr, NPS

P1.33

Water vapor eye temperatures of intense tropical cyclones

Roger Weldon, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Schwartz

P1.1

Hurricane ensemble prediction using NCEP operational HWRF system and GEFS perturbations

Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NCEP/EMC- SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Q. Liu, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord

Handout (232.7 kB)

P1.2

The risk of strong hurricane winds to Florida cities

Jill Christine Malmstadt, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger

P1.3

Helical features of tropical cyclogenesis

Galina V. Levina, Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russia; and M. T. Montgomery

P1.4

Toward a Global Climatology of Tropical Cloud Clusters

Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC; and C. N. Helms and K. R. Knapp

Handout (813.6 kB)

P1.5

Initial condition sensitivity and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, C. A. Reynolds, and J. R. Moskaitis

P1.6

Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global climate model

Hiroyuki Murakami, AESTO/MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and B. Wang and A. Kitoh

P1.7

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall Along the South China Coast

Samson K.S. Chiu, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan, W. L. Ginn, and S. M. Lee

P1.8

Detecting Tropical Cyclone Formation from Satellite Infrared Imagery

Miguel Pineros, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and J. S. Tyo

Handout (408.9 kB)

P1.9

Impact of resolution and downscaling technique in simulating Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with GEM-Climate

Louis-Philippe Caron, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and C. G. Jones and K. Winger

P1.10

Analyses of tropical cyclone characteristics and its relation to environmental conditions based on IPRC-regional climate model

Yi Lu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang

P1.11

Feasibility Study of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Area using RegCM3

Andie Y. M. Au-Yeung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan

Handout (933.4 kB)

P1.12

Simulation of the interannual variation of seasonal northwest Pacific typhoon activity with a regional climate model

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. R. Knutson, S. T. Garner, S. Chang, J. J. Sirutis, Y. C. Feng, and C. Chou

P1.13

Dynamic hurricane season prediction experiment with the NCEP T382 CFS CGCM

P1.14

Pattern classification of typhoon tracks and related large-scale circulations

Hyeong-Seog Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. H. Ho, J. H. Kim, and P. S. Chu

P1.15

Targeted observation for tropical cyclone during T-PARC 2008

Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and P. Harr, C. C. Wu, and M. Weissmann

P1.16

Hurricane reanalysis using Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Handout (84.8 kB)

P1.17

Tropical cyclones and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel

P1.18

The relationship between precipitation in the tropics and tropical cyclone frequency

Allison A. Wing, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Handout (95.3 kB)

P1.19

The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and S. Lavender

P1.20

Impacts of operational vortex initializations on 2009 hurricane forecast with the HWRFx model

P1.21

A Global Unified View of ENSO Modulation of Tropical Cyclones

Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin

P1.22

Potential improvements of tropical storm forecasts with remote sensing of ocean surface air pressure

Bing Lin, NASA, Hampton, VA; and S. Harrah, R. Lawrence, Q. Min, and Y. Hu

P1.22a

The potential for an abrupt failure of the West African monsoon as climate warms

Naresh Neupane, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

P1.23

Evaluation of experimental model forecasts from HFIP 2009 Demonstration

Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Jensen, and L. Nance

P1.24

High-resolution satellite data assimilation and its role in tropical cyclone prediction

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and T. Hashino

P1.25

Feasibility study of the mitigation of the intensity of tropical cyclones by CCN seeding in the outer rainband region: A HAMP project

P1.26

Overforecasts of tropical cyclogenesis in the FIM global model

Mike Fiorino, OAR, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao

P1.27

The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test: Beyond the traditional verification metrics

Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. K. Wolff, and H. Yuan

Handout (430.0 kB)

P1.28

The HWRFx Modeling System: Coupling to a One-Dimensional Ocean Model with Multiple Vertical Turbulence Closures

P1.29

The effect of major volcanic eruptions on tropical cyclone activity

Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and V. Bennington

P1.30

Climatological-based tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and average time to landfall

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P1.31

Impact of resolution on the statistical characteristics and regional structures of brightness temperatures calculated from simulated microphysics in hurricanes

Tempei Hashino, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and W. E. Lewis

P1.32

Hurricane Hanna (2008) Track Deflection and Rapid Intensity Change: An Observational and Numerical Study

P1.34

Using the HFIP high-resolution hurricane test dataset to diagnose interconnected track and intensity errors in hurricane forecasts

P1.35

Evaluating the impacts of extratropical transitioning on typhoon losses via synoptic case studies

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and M. Desflots

Handout (1.1 MB)

P1.37

Statistical prediction of TC frequency and seasonality within the core region of the inter american seas warm pool

Arthur V. Douglas, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and P. J. Englehart

P1.38

Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets

Tim LaRow, COAPS, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P1.40

Statistical-dynamical intraseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific

Tom Murphree, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Meyer, B. Mundhenk, and C. Raynak

P1.41

Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes

Robert E. Hodges, Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

P1.42

The thermodynamic evolution of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones

Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Hart

Handout (1.6 MB)

P1.43

A experimental proposal to reduce the devastation caused by hurricanes to humans and the environment

Handout (1.5 MB)

P1.44

Consistent tropical cyclone wind and wave forecasts for the U. S. Navy

Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Wittmann and H. L. Tolman

Handout (161.2 kB)

P1.45

Diagnosis of tropical cyclone activity through gravity wave energy density in the South West Indian Ocean

Chouaïbou Ibrahim, LACy(Laboratoire de l'atmosphere et des cyclones), Saint Denis, Reunion

P1.46

Zonal asymmetries in the African Easterly Jet

Amin K. Dezfuli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson

P1.47

Potential vorticity diagnostics associated with the Tropical Easterly Jet over Africa and links to rainfall variability

Travis A. Smith, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson

P1.48

A newly-documented low-level coastal jet along the Benguela Coast of Southern Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P1.49

Seasonal evolution of diabatic heating and associated meridional circulation over the West African Monsoon region

P1.50

Simulated rainfall diurnal cycle of African Monsoon: a sensitivity study to model resolution and sea surface temperature forcing

Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET-CNR), Roma, Italy; and F. Guarnieri and S. Melani

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.51

2009 tropical cyclone predictions and societal challenges in the tropical islands of the western North Pacific Ocean

Charles 'Chip' Guard, NOAA/NWSFO Guam, Barrigada, Guam

P1.52

Formation of tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean associated with two types of tropical intraseasonal oscillation modes

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

P1.53

An objective method to predict near real time rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using satellite passive microwave observations

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Rozoff, A. Wimmers, M. Sitkowski, M. E. Kieper, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and J. Knaff

P1.54

Recent Statistical Analyses of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Poster

John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander and C. S. Velden

P1.55

Microphysics of deep tropical convective clouds observed over India Part 2 : simulations with a high resolution spectral bin microphysics model (The HAMP contribution)

Alexander P. Khain, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and D. Rosenfeld, A. Pokrovsky, N. Benmoshe, J. R. Kulkarni, and R. S. Maheshkumar

Handout (832.3 kB)

P1.56

An analysis of tropical cyclone formations in the South China Sea during the late season

Cheng-Shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Lin

P1.57

ADT v8.1: tropical cyclone intensity beyond Dvorak

Michael Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

P1.58

A multi-scale analysis of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Paloma (2008)

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, S. Aberson, M. L. Black, E. Uhlhorn, J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, and R. Rogers

P1.59

Sensitivity of The South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to The Cloud Microphysics and Associated Radiative Effects

Yi-Chi Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung, J. L. Li, and D. E. Waliser

P1.60

Microphysics of deep tropical convective clouds over India, part-I: Aircraft observations

J.R. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, Pune, India; and E. Freud, M. Konwar, R. S. Maheshkumar, and D. Rosenfeld

P1.61

Origin and a formation mechanism of pre-TC African easterly wave-mesoscale convective systems in eastern Africa

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and G. Tang, J. Spinks, and W. Jones

P1.62

Development of a tropical cyclone microphysical model

Barry Lynn, Weather It Is, LTD, Efrat, Israel; and J. W. Bao, I. Ginis, A. P. Khain, and S. Gopalakrishnan

P1.63

HWRF performance diagnostics from the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season

Brian D. McNoldy, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, V. Tallapragada, and T. Marchok

Handout (1.0 MB)

P1.64

The Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08) near real-time and science studies satellite product suite

Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, T. F. Lee, R. L. Bankert, C. S. Velden, D. C. Herndon, A. Wimmers, T. Olander, F. J. Turk, J. E. Kent, and S. D. Miller

P1.65

Implications of Wintertime Blocking Episodes over Ural-Siberia for the Regional Climate in Southeast Asia

Ho Nam Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

P1.66

Transport of dust particles from the Bodele region to the monsoon layer. Case study of the 9-14 june 2006 period

Suzanne Crumeyrolle, LaMP : Laboratoire de Meteorologie Physique, Aubière, France; and P. Tulet, L. Garcia-Carreras, L. Gomes, C. Flamant, A. Schwarzenboeck, A. Matsuki, D. J. Parker, H. Venzac, and P. Formenti

Handout (1.5 MB)

P1.67

Evaluation of budget analyses during MISMO

Masaki Katsumata, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and P. E. Ciesielski and R. H. Johnson

P1.68

The role of trade wind surges in tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific

Lung-Yao Chang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. K. W. Cheung and C. S. Lee

P1.69

Gravity wave parameters over the west African area derived from the AMMA campaign (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses)

Fabrice Chane Ming, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, St Denis, La Réunion, France; and P. Kafando and M. Petitdidier

P1.71

A first study of the lightning activity related to tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean

Christelle Barthe, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint Denis Cedex 9, Reunion; and S. Coquillat

P1.72

Initiation of deep convection and surface properties over West Africa: a satellite based study

Amanda Gounou, CNRM Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, F. Guichard, C. Taylor, R. Ellis, and P. Harris

P1.73

A possible mechanism regulating nocturnal stratocumulus decks in West Africa

Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink

Handout (905.3 kB)

P1.74

The impact of latent cooling processes on tropical cyclogenesis and intensity fluctuations

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and T. Hasselbeck

P1.75

Using potential vorticity tendency equations for diagnosing atmospheric dynamics in numerical models

Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and J. D. Kepert and J. Sippel

P1.76

Wave energy accumulation and tropical cyclone genesis

James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland, S. N. Tulich, C. Bruyere, and A. Suzuki-Parker

P1.77

Orographic influence on the cyclogenesis of tropical storm Debby (2006)

John Paul Roop, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang

P1.78

Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating

William R. Boos, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and Z. Kuang

P1.80

A Numerical Study on the Wind-Terrain Interaction in the South and Southeast Asian monsoon region

P1.81

2009 NSF-PREDICT Dry Run: what have we learned?

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and M. T. Montgomery

P1.82

Impact of assimilation of LASE and dropwindsonde data sets during NAMMA field campaign

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti

P1.83

Relationship of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones to Dynamical/Thermodynamical Parameters

Anu Simon, Dept. of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti, R. S. Ross, A. Martin, and D. Zelinsky

P1.84

Simulation of a convective rainfall event and associated water budget over West Africa : an intercomparison of mesoscale models

Francoise Guichard, CNRS/Météo-France UMR 3589, Toulouse, Haute Garonne, France; and J. P. Lafore, N. Asencio, C. Peugeot, O. Bock, J. L. Redelsperger, X. Cui, M. Garvert, B. L. Lamptey, E. Orlandi, J. Sander, F. Fierli, M. A. Gaertner, S. C. Jones, A. Morse, A. Boone, M. Nuret, G. Balsamo, B. Decharme, P. de Rosnay, P. Harris, and J. C. Berges

P1.85

Numerical modeling of boundary layer roll vortices in high wind conditions

Zhitao Yu, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and A. Khain

P1.86

Orographic Effects On Tropical Cyclogenesis Over Eastern Pacific Ocean

Van Nguyen, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang

P1.87

Tropical and extra-tropical forecast sensitivity to sub-tropical observational enhancement

Lee A. Byerle, AWS, Tucson, 85708; and J. Paegle, J. E. Nogues-Paegle, A. C. Saulo, and J. J. Ruiz

Handout (1.4 MB)

P1.88

ITCZ Cloud Clusters in Association with African Easterly Waves during Summer Seasons of El Nino and La Nina Years

Dr. Mostafa El - Rafy, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

Handout (1.1 MB)

P1.89

Convective Characteristics of Hurricane Eyewalls and Rainbands from 11 years of TRMM Data

Ellen Ramirez, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and H. Jiang and E. Zipser

P1.90

Dynamical system analysis of a low order tropical cyclone model

Daria Schönemann, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and T. Frisius

Handout (477.9 kB)

P1.91

Characteristics of convection investigated during NAMMA (2006) using a dual-frequency airborne precipitation radar

Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser and S. Tanelli

P1.92

On the Tropical Cyclone Formation from Tropical Waves

Chanh Q. Kieu, Hanoi College of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam; and F. Zhang, J. S. Gall, and W. Frank

Handout (1.4 MB)

P1.93

WISHE and tropical cyclone intensification

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Emanuel, F. Zhang, J. Fang, and B. H. Tang

P1.94

GeoSTAR – a new hurricane observatory

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. Gaier, A. Tanner, and P. Kangaslahti

P1.95

An analysis of tropical variability during the 2002-2003 cold season

Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

P1.96

Seasonal and intraseasonal modulations of environmental field for tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal

Wataru Yanase, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute/University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; and H. Taniguchi and M. Satoh

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.97

Life after QuikSCAT-Tropical cyclone analysis using microwave imagery and data

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Handout (1013.8 kB)

P1.98

The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) objective on the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: observed cases, their structure and downstream impacts

Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. C. Jones, D. Anwender, M. M. Bell, C. A. Davis, R. L. Elsberry, J. L. Evans, C. M. Grams, S. T. Lang, J. H. Keller, N. Kitabatake, W. C. Lee, R. McTaggart-Cowan, E. R. Sanabia, C. S. Velden, M. Weissmann, and M. Wirth

Handout (589.2 kB)

P1.99

Synoptic variability of the monsoon flux over West Africa prior to the onset

Fleur Couvreux, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Guichard, O. Bock, B. Campistron, J. P. Lafore, and J. L. Redelsperger

P1.100

Documentation of cloud characteristics inferred from ground and satellite measurements within west Africa

Dominique Bouniol, CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, P. H. Kamsu-Tamo, M. Leplay, F. Guichard, and E. J. O'Connor

P1.101

Mineral dust transport over West Africa in 2006

Juliane Schwendike, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and D. Bou Karam, S. Crumeyrolle, C. Flamant, S. C. Jones, M. Schmidberger, F. Solmon, T. Stanelle, H. Vogel, and B. Vogel

Handout (2.1 MB)

P1.102

Data impact experiments using IASI observations during the life cycle of Hurricanes Gustav, Hanna and Ike (2008)

Doris Anwender, Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and N. Fourrié, F. Rabier, and P. Arbogast

Handout (1.0 MB)

P1.103

Interactions of Upper Level Troughs and African Easterly Waves

Bryce Paul Tyner, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

P1.104

Precipitation processes in southwest India during the summer monsoon: the Orographic Precipitation and Evolution of Landscapes-Western Ghats project (OPEL-WG)

Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. M. Anders, W. J. Kaufeld, and J. Colberg

P1.105

Intraseasonal variability of African easterly wave activity

Jeffrey M. Ceratto, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft

P1.106

Easterly Waves in the Intra-Americas Sea Region

Yolande Serra, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. Kiladis and K. I. Hodges

Handout (103.3 kB)

P1.107

Tropical transition of tropical cyclones Gabrielle and Humberto during the 2007 North Atlantic season

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bosart

P1.108

What Controls the Geographic Distribution of Evapotranspiration in the Amazon River Basin?

Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and D. H. Bromwich and J. L. Lin

P1.109

Maintenance of Long-lived African Easterly Waves

David Church, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer

P1.110

Modeling studies of African Easterly Waves in relation to Tropical Cyclogenesis along the West African Coast

Forbes Tompkins, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao and G. S. Jenkins

P1.112

Utilization of a multi-phase particle model to develop self-consistent bulk microphysical parameterizations for hurricane models

Jon Reisner, LANL, Los Alamos, NM

P1.113

Downscaling the North America Monsoon using CWRF: Model resolution and the depiction of precipitation climate and variability

P1.114

A study of the influence of the Saharan Air Layer on tropical cyclones using TOMS data

E.M. Hicks, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Pointe à Pitre, Guadeloupe; and C. A. Pontikis

Handout (219.9 kB)

P1.115

Simple kinematic models of tropical cyclones in vertical shear

Michael Riemer, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

P1.116

Impact of the MJO on the west African monsoon, African easterly waves, and Atlantic tropical cyclones

Ghassan J. Alaka, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

P1.117

Mechanisms Linking Easterly Waves and the North American Monsoon System

Simona Seastrand, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Y. Serra

P1.118

Evaluation of a Reduced Model for Investigating Hurricane Formation from Turbulence

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

P1.119

Contrasts between organized convection during the peak and tail ends of the West African monsoon

Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft, B. Mapes, and E. R. Williams

P1.120

A logistic regression model for WNP tropical cyclone formation forecast

Bing Fu, IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and J. Hansen

P1.123

The Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation over Tropical North Africa

Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and P. Roundy

P1.124

Onset of genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) from the vertical alignment of a westward-tilted vortex

Wallace Hogsett, NOAA, Miami, FL

P1.125

Simulation of Tropical Storm Fay intensity change over land due to soil moisture and land moisture over Lake Okeechobee

Travis Washington, NOAA/NWS, Shreveport, LA

P1.126

Diagnosis and Verification of Real-Time COAMPS-TC Forecasts

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, J. D. Doyle, J. R. Moskaitis, R. M. Hodur, Y. Jin, and M. S. Peng

P1.127

Three-dimensional structure of the Saharan Air Layer

Aaron M. Adams, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

P1.128

The effects of latent heating on the extratropical transition of Typhoon Sinlaku

Michael Kevin Hernandez, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

P1.129

The relationship between tropical cyclone intensity changes and its precipitation features

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Schroeder

P1.130

Tropical cyclone genesis from easterly waves in a regional climate model

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis and A. Suzuki-Parker

P1.131

Is rapid intensification internally or externally controlled?

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng

P1.132

Comparison of the role of subsurface ocean in the east and central Pacific warmings

Lina I. Ceballos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and E. Di Lorenzo

P1.133

Convective scale simulation of the 2006 North American Monsoon season

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and R. Rotunno and M. C. Barth

P1.134

The climatological significance of extratropical transitioning on typhoon precipitation over japan

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and J. Butke

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.135

A modeling study of tropical cyclone suppression during the AEROSE 2009: Case study of Ana

Miliaritiana L. Robjhon, Howard University, Washington, DC; and S. Chiao, E. Joseph, N. R. Nalli, A. E. Reynolds, and D. V. Morris

P1.136

Impact of different cumulus parameterizations on the numerical simulation of rain over southern China

Handout (894.2 kB)

P1.137

The Impact of Airborne Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements on Numerical Simulations of Tropical cyclones

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang and G. D. Emmitt

P1.138

Simulations of Top-Down and Bottom-Up tropical cyclogenesis

Tim Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and X. Ge and M. S. Peng

Session

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Arizona Ballroom 7 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session

Evening Session Presentation and Panel Discussion on Industry Applications. Sponsored by Willis Re

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

8:00 PM

.1

The future of modeling hurricane catastrophes

Peter Dailey, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and J. Guin

8:15 PM

.2

Reducing the impact of hurricane variability and change on the Offshore Energy Community in the Gulf of Mexico

Cort Cooper, Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, San Ramon, CA; and G. J. Holland, J. M. Done, A. Suzuki, and C. Bruyere

8:30 PM

.3

The Willis Hurricane Index

Brian F. Owens, Willis Limited, London, United Kingdom; and G. J. Holland

Session 8A

T-PARC Targeted Data Studies

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI

8:00 AM

8A.1

Properties of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling strategy for tropical cyclones

Shin-Gan Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Majumdar and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8A.2

Synoptic sensitivity analysis of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008)

William Komaromi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. D. Rappin, S. J. Majumdar, M. J. Brennan, S. G. Chen, D. S. Nolan, R. Langland, and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8A.3

Special satellite data analysis and NWP impact studies during TPARC

Howard Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, R. Langland, and C. A. Reynolds

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

8A.4

Targeted observation and its impact in DOTSTAR and T-PARC

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin, K. H. Chou, S. D. Aberson, S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Reynolds, M. S. Peng, T. Nakazawa, P. A. Harr, H. M. Kim, M. Weissmann, J. H. Chen, and S. G. Chen

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8A.5

The influence of special T-PARC observations on typhoon track and mid-latitude forecasts

Martin Weissmann, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany; and F. Harnisch, S. Rahm, T. Nakazawa, C. C. Wu, S. D. Aberson, Y. H. Kim, K. Yamashita, and Y. Ohta

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8A.6

Sensitivity of typhoon forecasts to different subsets of targeted observations

Florian Harnisch, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany; and M. Weissmann

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (9.9 kB)

9:30 AM

8A.7a

Impact of targeted dropsonde observations on the track forecast for SINLAKU (200813) using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Byoung-Joo Jung, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. M. Kim, F. Zhang, and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (381.4 kB)

Session 8B

Tropical Cyclone Structure: Inner Structure and Vertical Structure

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

8:00 AM

8B.1

Structure and intensity changes during hurricane eye formation

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

8:15 AM

8B.2

Multiscale observations of tropical cyclone structure using airborne Doppler composites

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, P. D. Reasor, J. Gamache, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

8:30 AM

8B.3

The distribution of helicity and intense convection in tropical cyclones

Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and K. A. Shontz

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8B.4

Tropical Cyclone Morphology and Phenomenology as Depicted in Passive Microwave Imagery

Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International University, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8B.5

Estimating tropical cyclone intensity with inner core rotation as observed by MISR

Dong L. Wu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. Nelson

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8B.6

The collapse of the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly (2008) into multiple mesovortices

Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and Z. Gruskin

9:30 AM

8B.7

Microwave imagery and in situ validation of eye mesovortex structure in Hurricane Katrina (2005) at peak intensity

Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

Session 8C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Modeling

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC

8:00 AM

8C.1

Adjoint Equations of Rotunno and Emanuel (1987): Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis

Kosuke Ito, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8C.2B

Secondary Eyewall Formation and Convectively-Generated Potential Vorticity in Rainbands in Hurricane Rita

Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8C.3

The predictability of tropical cyclone intensity: Results from a simple dynamical model

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8C.4

Intensity forecasts for hurricane charley: the role of data assimilation

Lisha Roubert, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8C.5

Observational and modeling comparison of Super-Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Peter G. Black, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, S. Chen, J. D. Hawkins, D. S. Ko, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, H. Jin, C. S. Liou, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang, Q. Zhao, M. S. Peng, I. I. Lin, J. F. Gamache, and P. Niiler

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8C.6

Idealized simulations of the impact of dry Saharan air on Atlantic hurricanes

Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Sippel and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

9:30 AM

8C.7

The effects of turbulence on hurricane intensity

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno and Y. Chen

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (161.2 kB)

Session 8D

Intraseasonal Variability I

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian E. Mapes, Univeristy of Miami / RSMAS

8:00 AM

8D.1

The skeleton of tropical intraseasonal oscillations

Andrew J. Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8D.2

Apparent coupling of oceanic Kelvin waves and atmospheric convection

Lynn Michele Gribble - Verhagen, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. Roundy

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (82.0 kB)

8:30 AM

8D.3

Association of global weather patterns with intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves coupled to atmospheric convection

Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (365.4 kB)

8:45 AM

8D.4

The role of moisture-convection feedbacks in simulating the MJO

Walter Hannah, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8D.5

Caribbean Precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Elinor Martin, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

9:15 AM

8D.6

Diabatic Heating Distributions in the Tropics for Studies of Intraseasonal Phenomena

William S. Olson, UMBC and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Grecu, G. Gu, T. S. L'Ecuyer, and M. G. Bosilovich

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8D.7

Tropical–extratropical interactions conducive to intraseasonal variability in the Northern Hemisphere available potential energy

Jason M. Cordeira, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 9A

T-PARC: Process Studies

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University

10:15 AM

9A.1

Retrieval of typhoon wind fields from Doppler radar and dropsonde data using an efficient 2-step approach

Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

9A.2

High Resolution Analysis of the Structure of a Convective System in Developing Typhoon Nuri

Jorge Cisneros, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. López Carrillo and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.3

Vorticity budget in developing typhoon Nuri

David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. Lopez Carrillo

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9A.4

Convection and shear flow in TC development and intensification

H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. P. Chang and C. H. Liu

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9A.5

Typhoon Sinlaku during T-PARC: Sensivity of the re-intensification and downstream development to the track following recurvature

Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and E. R. Sanabia and A. B. Penny

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (386.6 kB)

11:30 AM

9A.6

How vertical wind shear affects the rapid intensification of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)

Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9A.7

The interaction between the outflow of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and the midlatitude jet during T-PARC

Christian M. Grams, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, BW, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

Session 9B

Tropical Cyclone Structure: Wind Field

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

9B.1

Changes in Track and Structure of Tropical Cyclones near Landfall

Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

9B.2

The compactness of typhoons in the western North Pacific

Delia Yen-Chu Chen, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and K. K. W. Cheung

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9B.3

Deficiencies of slab models of the hurricane boundary layer

Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (305.1 kB)

11:00 AM

9B.4

A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size

Daniel R. Chavas, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (290.3 kB)

11:15 AM

9B.5

A comparison of axisymmetric and three-dimensional hurricanes in an idealized framework

John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams

11:30 AM

9B.6

The role of Lagrangian coherent structures in tropical cyclone formation

Blake Rutherford, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Dangelmayr and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (716.5 kB)

11:45 AM

9B.7

Ike (2008) and the Windstorm over Ohio

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and N. D'Allura

Recorded Presentation

Session 9C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Forecast Methods

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

9C.1

Improved short-term Atlantic hurricane intensity forecasts using reconnaissance-based core measurements

D. Andrew Murray, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

9C.2

Data Mining Techniques for the Studies of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes

Ruixin Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. Tang

10:45 AM

9C.3

Assessing the impact of total precipitable water and lightning on SHIPS intensity forecasts

John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Kaplan, and J. Dunion

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (186.2 kB)

11:00 AM

9C.4

Enhancements to the operational SHIPS rapid intensification index

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, J. Dunion, J. F. Dostalek, J. E. Solbrig, J. Hawkins, T. F. Lee, J. Zhang, E. Kalina, and P. Leighton

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (634.9 kB)

11:15 AM

9C.5

Tropical cyclone intensity change predictability estimates using a statistical-dynamical model

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (220.4 kB)

11:30 AM

9C.6

Challenges of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Matthew E. Kucas, JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (427.3 kB)

11:45 AM

9C.7

Assessment of the impact of increased lead time for tropical cyclone watches/warnings in the North Central Pacific

Samuel Houston, CPHC/NWS/NOAA, Honolulu, HI; and R. Knabb, M. DeMaria, and A. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (569.8 kB)

Session 9D

Intraseasonal Variability II

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Paul Roundy, SUNY

10:15 AM

9D.1

MJO and convectively coupled waves in a coarse resolution GCM with a simple multicloud parametrization

Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. St Cyr, A. J. Majda, and J. Tribbia

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

9D.2

Simulations of the Madden – Julian Oscillation using a Tropical Channel Model

Marcela Ulate, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9D.3

An idealized, semi-empirical MJO model

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9D.4

The Madden–Julian oscillation wind-convection coupling and the role of moisture processes in the MM5 model

Erwan Monier, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and B. C. Weare and W. I. Gustafson Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9D.5

Studying the MJO with models that don't have one

Brian E. Mapes, Univeristy of Miami / RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9D.6

Role of the Atmospheric Mean-state on the Initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Tropical Channel Model

Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. K. Ray, C. Zhang, and J. Dudhia

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9D.7

Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on convection and circulation in the subtropics to midlatitudes in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

Chiharu Takahashi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and N. Sato, A. Seiki, K. Yoneyama, R. Shirooka, and Y. N. Takayabu

Recorded Presentation

Session 10A

TCS-08: Formation

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

1:15 PM

10A.1

Applying Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Understand the Tropical Cyclogenesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008)

Rahul B. Mahajan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

10A.2

Role of Mesoscale Convective Rings and Mesoscale Convective Blowouts in Tropical Cyclone Formations during TCS-08 Experiment

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and A. Chollet

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10A.3

Analysis of a-typical tropical cyclone genesis during TCS08

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (473.7 kB)

2:00 PM

10A.4

Observation and simulation of the genesis of Typhoon Fengshen during the PALAU-2008 field experiment

Hiroyuki Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and W. Yanase, M. Sato, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka

2:15 PM

10A.5

Development of pre-depression Hagupit observed during TCS08

Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.6

The genesis of Typhoon Nuri as observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) field experiment

Louis L. Lussier III, NPS, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10A.7b

Genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) during the MJO: Formation and synoptic evolution of a tilted vortex

Wallace Hogsett, NOAA, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (875.4 kB)

Session 10B

Tropical Cyclone Structure: Concentric Eyewalls

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University

1:15 PM

10B.1

Dynamical mechanisms for secondary eyewall formation: insights from a cloud-resolving tropical cyclone model

Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Kossin and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

10B.2

Concentric eyewall formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part I: Assimilation of T-PARC data based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. Y. Lien, J. H. Chen, and Y. H. Huang

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10B.3

Concentric eyewall formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part II: Dynamical analyses

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and G. Y. Lien

2:00 PM

10B.4

Secondary eyewall formation in high-resolution hurricane simulations

Sergio Abarca, NPS, CA

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.5

Intensity and structure variations associated with eyewall replacement cycles

Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin and C. M. Rozoff

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (198.3 kB)

2:30 PM

10B.6

Environmental and Internal Controls of Concentric Eyewalls Formation and Replacement: RAINEX and Beyond

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

2:45 PM

10B.7a

Intensity change associated with concentric eyewall replacement

Xiaqiong Zhou, university of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

10B.7

Characteristics and climatology of eyewall replacement cycles for Atlantic tropical cyclones from observations

Session 10C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Operational Models

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James Goerss, NRL

1:15 PM

10C.1

The impact of resolution on Met Office model predictions of tropical cyclone track and intensity

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

1:30 PM

10C.2

Analysis of tropical cyclone activity in three recent versions of the Canadian global numerical weather prediction system

Ayrton Zadra, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and B. Dugas, A. M. Leduc, R. McTaggart-Cowan, M. Roch, and P. Vaillancourt

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10C.3

Diagnosis of operational model track forecast error for Hurricane Ike (2008)

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10C.4

Performance of the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for 2008-2009 hurricane seasons

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC- SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Lapenta, S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Q. Liu, Y. Kwon, Z. Zhang, R. E. Tuleya, and J. O'Connor

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10C.5

Evaluation of 2008 season hurricane forecasts with a new shallow cumulus convection package in the NCEP GFS

Jongil Han, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/WYLE, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan

2:30 PM

10C.6

Consequences, Intended and Unintended, of Tropical Cyclone Surveillance Globally during 2008

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL, FL

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10C.7

Verification of Operational Storm Surge Predictions from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike (2008)

Jessica Schauer, NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome

Recorded Presentation

Session 10D

Intraseasonal Variability III

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Melinda S. Peng, NRL

1:15 PM

10D.1

Biases in global reanalysis datasets undermine the forecasting skill of tropical intraseasonal variability

Xiouhua (Joshua) Fu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

10D.3

Water vapor and SST variations associated with equatorial waves over the tropical Indian Ocean

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, Y. N. Takayabu, M. Yoshizaki, and M. Fujita

10D.2

Tropical intraseasonal variability in seasonal hindcasts and climate simulations

1:45 PM

10D.4

Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

Tim Li, Unicersity of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and P. C. Hsu and C. H. Tsou

2:15 PM

10D.5

Intraseasonal variability of the Saharan Heat Low and its link with mid-latitudes

Romain Roehrig, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Chauvin and J. P. Lafore

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10D.6

Interannual variations and predictability of intraseasonal convective events over South America

Fernando Hirata, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10D.7

Zonal mean momentum in northern summer: is budget and some possible implications

Patrick Kelly, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 11A

TCS-08: Structure

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David J. Raymond, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology

3:30 PM

11A.1

Mesoscale numerical simulations of TCS08 typhoons with assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang, Q. Zhao, and W. Lee

3:45 PM

11A.2

Prediction and diagnosis of the motion and rapid intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku during TCS08 (Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment, 2008)

Marie-Dominique Leroux, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, unité mixte CNRS - Meteo-France - Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (609.9 kB)

4:00 PM

11A.3

Latent heating rate profiles at different tropical cyclone stages during 2008 Tropical Cyclone Structure experiment: Comparison of ELDORA and TRMM PR retrievals

Myung-Sook Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and R. L. Elsberry and M. M. Bell

Presentation PDF (261.9 kB)

4:15 PM

11A.4

Scale Interactions during the Re-intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku prior to Extratropical Transition

Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and P. A. Harr

4:30 PM

11A.5

The role of multiple mesoscale convective systems in a non-developing tropical disturbance observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) field experiment

Andrew B. Penny, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. Malvig and P. Harr

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

4:45 PM

11A.6

The effects of complex terrain on tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall during TCS-08

Brian J. Billings, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (460.0 kB)

5:00 PM

11A.7

TCS08 Minority Report: how to prevent typhoons in the western North Pacific

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam (WERI), Mangilao, Guam

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (430.0 kB)

Session 11B

Tropical Cyclone Structure: Rainbands and Precipitation

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii

3:30 PM

11B.1

Spiral rainbands as seen in numerically simulated hurricanes

Yumin Moon, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.5 MB)

3:45 PM

11B.2

Impacts of evaporative cooling on tropical cyclone rainband

Masahiro Sawada, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan; and T. Iwasaki

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (754.2 kB)

4:00 PM

11B.3

The water budget of Typhoon Nari (2001) at landfall

Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and S. Braun and D. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (909.1 kB)

4:15 PM

11B.4

Rainfall Distributions over Land associated with Tropical Cyclones making landfall along the South China Coast

Kit Ying Fung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11B.5

Orographic Effects on Rainfall induced by the Passage of Tropical Cyclones over Mountainous Islands

Ian C. Colon Pagan Sr., North Carolina A&T State University - SOARS, Greensboro, NC

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11B.6

Dynamics and Structure of Supercells Induced by Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Bamjamin Green, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11B.7

Squall Lines preceding Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and Y. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Session 11C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Ensemble Systems

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office

3:30 PM

11C.1

Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance in the tropics

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, M. K. Flatau, J. A. Ridout, and E. Serra

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

11C.2

Impact of ensemble composition, formulation, and resolution on tropical cyclone track forecast performance

James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. G. McLay, and E. Serra

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

11C.3

Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts

Munehiko Yamaguchi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (773.8 kB)

4:15 PM

11C.4

Real-time mesoscale ensemble data assimilation for Atlantic TC

Ryan Torn, SUNY / University at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. Cavallo, C. A. Davis, and C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11C.5

Assimilation of tropical cyclone track and structure based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)

Guo-Yuan Lien, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and F. Zhang

4:45 PM

11C.6

Dynamics and structure of three-dimensional error covariance of a mature tropical cyclone

Jonathan Poterjoy, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (940.2 kB)

5:00 PM

11C.7

Vortex structures from an ensemble-based data assimilation and hurricane prediction system during the 2009 Atlantic tropical cyclone season

Steven M. Cavallo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Torn, C. Snyder, C. Davis, W. Wang, and J. Done

Recorded Presentation

Session 11D

Catastrophe Modeling Strategies and Applications

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation

3:30 PM

11D.1

Hurricane Severity Index: A More Efficient Way of Predicting a Tropical Cyclone's Destructive Potential

Chris Hebert, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and R. Weinzapfel and M. Chambers

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (286.6 kB)

3:45 PM

11D.2

Effect of SST and ENSO on western North Pacific tropical cyclone landfall via changes in genesis

Emmi Yonekura, Columbia University, New York, NY; and T. M. Hall

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

11D.3

Tropical cyclone return periods on the U.S. Atlantic coast: comparison of methods

Timothy M. Hall, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and J. Kleinn

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11D.4

Probabilistic storm surge heights for the US using full stochastic events

Shangyao Nong, FM Global, Norwood, MA; and J. McCollum, L. Xu, M. Scheffler, and H. Ali

Presentation PDF (48.7 kB)

4:30 PM

11D.5

Myths about the Cause of Hurricane Katrina's Storm Surge

Pat Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau, C. M. Hill, T. V. Wamsley, B. Jelley, and E. Valenti

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11D.6

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability on Modeled Atlantic Hurricane Losses

Justin Brolley, EQECAT, Inc, Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith and A. Haseemkunju

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11D.7

Insured loss estimation from wind and storm surge for a re-occurrence of typhoon vera

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and C. Kafali

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

Conference Banquet

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 12A

Air-Sea Interaction I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M

8:00 AM

12A.1

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in tropical cyclones

Lynn K. Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12A.2

Numerical simulations of the hurricane intensity response to a warm ocean eddy

Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

8:30 AM

12A.3

Upwelling and mixed layer deepening in mesoscale oceanic eddies during the passage of tropical cyclones

Benjamin Jaimes, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.4

Ocean Response to Hurricane Ophelia: Observations and Simulations

S. Daniel Jacob, GEST, Univ. of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Rolling

9:00 AM

12A.5

Impact of the upper-ocean thermal structure on typhoon intensity change in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

Shao-Liang Sung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and S. S. Chen

9:15 AM

12A.6

Evaluation of 1D and 3D ocean coupling on GFDL hurricane model forecast skill in the Western Pacific

Raymond A. Richardson, WeatherPredict Consulting, Inc, Raleigh, NC; and I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. M. Yablonsky, and M. A. Bender

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12A.7

Interactions of tropical cyclone with river plumes

Il-Ju Moon, Cheju National University, Jujusi, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. H. Kim and S. J. Kwon

Session 12B

Tropical Cyclone Observations I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

12B.1

Capture and Characterization of Near-Surface Wind-Driven Rain during Hurricane Ike (2008)

Jennifer Haydt, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and F. Masters and R. A. Black

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12B.2

Measuring sea spray changes in hurricanes via measurements of salt concentrations in rain using a salinity/conductivity sensor on a NOAA research aircraft

James Robert Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and H. Hoefmeister, J. A. Smith, and J. H. Roles

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12B.3

Surface heat fluxes of tropical cyclones from satellite data sets and reanalyses

Carol Anne Clayson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. A. Curry and J. Liu

8:45 AM

12B.4

Near-surface temperature and moisture observations from tropical cyclones between 1975-2007: Axisymmetric and asymmetric structural analysis

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.5

Validation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data using GPS dropsondes in tropical cyclone environments

Edward Hildebrand, UCAR, Offutt AFB, NE

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.6

A comparison of atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture profiles with dropsonde observations over tropical oceans: the bias correction and impact on numerical simulation of tropical cyclones

Lei Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

9:30 AM

12B.7

Adaptive sounding arrays for tropical regions

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (373.3 kB)

Session 12C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: High-Resolution Model- HWRF

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR

8:00 AM

12C.1

Improving operational hurricane prediction with NCEP's Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) system: future advancements, community involvement and transition of research to operations through the Development Testbed Center (DTC)

Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Y. Kwon, Z. Zhang, Q. Liu, L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, I. Ginis, G. J. Holland, C. Davis, and L. Carson

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12C.2

Energy budget analysis of HWRF model hurricanes

Katherine S. Maclay, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12C.3

Sensitivity of the NOAA Hurricane Research and Forecasting Model (HWRFX) to Various Cloud and Boundary Layer Parameterizations

J.-W. Bao, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Gopalakrishnan and S. A. Michelson

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12C.4

The sensitivity of TC intensity and structure to grid spacing in the Advanced Hurricane WRF

Daniel J. Halperin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12C.5

Vortex-scale hurricane data assimilation: Real-data results using combined NOAA/AOML/HRD HWRF-X regional and NOAA/ESRL GFS global ensemble Kalman filter systems

Altug Aksoy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic, J. S. Whitaker, S. Gopalakrishnan, and S. D. Aberson

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12C.6

Adaptation of the Advanced Hurricane WRF for driving a storm surge prediction model

Craig Mattocks, University of North Carolina, Morehead City, NC; and C. Forbes, G. Jedlovec, J. L. Case, and F. J. LaFontaine

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (518.0 kB)

9:30 AM

12C.7

Test results using the NOAH LSM in the operational HWRF system

Robert Tuleya, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA; and Y. Wu

Recorded Presentation

Session 12D

Convection I

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison

8:00 AM

12D.1

What do cloud-resolving models tell us about critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation?

Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. Kochanski

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12D.2

Multiple equilibria in a cloud resolving model

Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. Sugaya, D. J. Raymond, and A. H. Sobel

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12D.3

"Deconstruction" of the mass-flux convective parameterization problem

Jun-Ichi Yano, CNRM, Toulouse, France, Toulouse, France

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12D.4

Grid-scale instabilities in a popular cumulus parametrization masked by numerical dissipation

Ian Ross, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider and N. A. McFarlane

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12D.5

A density current parameterization coupled with Emanuel's convection Scheme

Jean Yves Grandpeix, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Lafore, R. Roehrig, and F. Cheruy

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12D.6

A comparison between Carnot and steam cycles, and their implications for moist convection

Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY

9:30 AM

12D.7

The variable gross moist stability

Zhiming Kuang, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Andersen

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 13A

Air-Sea Interaction II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:15 AM

13A.1

Developing coupled wind-wave-current interaction framework with sea spray effects for hurricanes models

Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and Y. Fan, T. Hara, B. Thomas, J. W. Bao, and L. Bianco

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

13A.2

Impact of sea spray on the surface boundary layer

Laura Bianco, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, C. W. Fairall, and S. A. Michelson

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13A.3

A study of the sffect of ocean spray on vertical momentum transport under high-wind conditions of tropical cyclone

Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13A.4

Effects of Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on Tropical Cyclone Structure

Chiaying Lee, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.5

Shallow water wave measurements in the hurricane enviroment

Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Stamates, S. Cummings, S. Kimball, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13A.6

Laboratory investigation of wind-wave interaction under severe wind conditions

Yuliya Troitskaya, IAP RAS Institute of Applied Physics Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia; and V. Kazakov, S. Daniil, E. Olga, S. Mikhail, and B. Nicolay

11:45 AM

13A.7

Turbulence, Bubbles, and Drift Current in the Near-Surface Layer of the Ocean

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL; and A. Fujimura and R. Lukas

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Tropical Cyclone Observations II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NHC

10:15 AM

13B.1

A Numerical Study into the Dynamic Behaviour of a GPS dropsonde in a Prescribed Wind Field

Sunwei Li, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and C. Miller

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (406.1 kB)

10:30 AM

13B.2

Comparison of HRD Airborne-Doppler radar quality control and analysis to independent data sources

John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Lorsolo, and S. Aberson

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13B.3

NOAA's utilization of Coyote unmanned aircraft systems for tropical cyclone research

LCDR Nancy Ash, NOAA, MacDill AFB, FL; and J. J. Cione

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13B.4

High altitude aircraft observations enabling 3-D pre-genesis monitoring

Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13B.5

Estimating maximum surface winds from hurricane reconnaissance measurements

Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and J. D. Kepert and E. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13B.6

Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer algorithm improvements addressing rain contamination of surface wind speed measurements in tropical cyclones

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML/HRD - CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (507.3 kB)

11:45 AM

13B.7

Assessment of hurricane observational under-sampling and its impact on estimated intensity

Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide; and T. L. Miller, D. S. Nolan, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

Session 13C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Structure and Intensity

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

10:15 AM

13C.1

Sensitivity of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients (Cd and Ch) on Hurricane Intensity

Young C. Kwon, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Lord, B. Lapenta, V. Tallapragada, S. Liu, and Z. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

13C.2

Constraints on drag and exchange coefficients at extreme wind speeds

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and P. Sandery, G. Brassington, M. Entel, C. Siegenthaler- LeDrian, J. D. Kepert, and R. Darbyshire

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13C.3

Dependence of tropical cyclone inner-core size and intensity on the initial vortex size

Jing Xu, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13C.4

On diagnosing the hurricane boundary layer: inertial stability versus Richardson number

Aaron Paget, U.S. Coast Guard Academy, New London, CT; and P. H. Ruscher and D. R. Ryglicki

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13C.5

Influence of cloud-radiative feedback on tropical cyclone motion

Robert G. Fovell, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and K. L. Corbosiero and A. Seifert

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

11:30 AM

13C.6

Wind-wave-current interaction in hurricanes

Yalin Fan, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13C.7

Tornadic supercells in hurricane katrina: a high-resolution modeling study

Zachary Handlos, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

Session 13D

Convection II

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois

10:15 AM

13D.1

Year of tropical convection (YOTC): status and research agenda

Duane Edward Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and M. W. Moncrieff

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

13D.2

Identifying the ITCZ in satellite data using Markov Random Fields: Overview and interannual variability in the east Pacific

Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and C. Bain, J. De Paz Rodrigues, J. Kramer, P. Smyth, and H. Stern

10:45 AM

13D.3

Correlations between lightning and characteristics of convective cells in tropical thunderstorms

Chuntao Liu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13D.4

Global Distribution of Convection in Tropical Cyclones Based on 11 yr of TRMM Data

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13D.5

Rain on small tropical islands

Casey Burleyson, PNNL, Richland, WA; and A. H. Sobel and S. E. Yuter

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13D.6

Inter and intraseasonal variations of cloud and precipiation characteristics over the Amazon Basin, observed with TRMM PR and Cloudsat CPR data

Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and H. Higuchi

11:45 AM

13D.7

Clouds associated with the MJO: A new perspective from CloudSat

Emily M. Riley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. E. Mapes

Recorded Presentation

Session 14A

Air-Sea Interaction III

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology

1:15 PM

14A.1

Upper ocean thermal structure of the East China sea and its impact on typhoon intensity

I.-I. Lin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. C. Gong, K. Emanuel, J. F. Price, M. Lien, I. F. Pun, and C. C. Wu

1:30 PM

14A.2

Ocean heat content variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for intensity forecasting

Jodi K. Brewster, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14A.3

Comparison of Altimeter Derived and In-Situ Hurricane Heat Potential

Paolo de Matthaeis, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Jacob and B. Young

2:00 PM

14A.4

Modeling and observations of the Atlantic Meridional Mode during the hurricane season

Dimitry Smirnov, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14A.5

The southeast Pacific warm band and double ITCZ

Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and T. S. L'Ecuyer

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.6

Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback and Cloud-Radiation Feedback in Southeastern Pacific simulated by 24 IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs

Michael Davis, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin, T. Qian, and M. P. Hung

2:45 PM

14A.7

Sea Surface Temperature Biases under the Stratus Cloud Deck in the Southeast Pacific Ocean in 19 IPCC AR4 Coupled General Circulation Models

Yangxing Zheng, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. Shinoda, J. L. Lin, and G. N. Kiladis

Presentation PDF (3.0 MB)

Session 14B

Tropical Cyclones and Large-scale Circulations

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Amato Evan, University of Virginia

1:15 PM

14B.1

Conceptual Model of Western North Pacific Monsoon Depression Formation

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and J. Beattie

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.9 MB)

1:30 PM

14B.2

Co-variability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. K. Lee

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14B.3

Downstream Development of the Summertime TC/Sub-monthly Wave Pattern in the Extratropical North Pacific

Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14B.4

Analysis of the large-scale environment preceding the development of an African disturbance

Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14B.5

The Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Climate Memory in the Atmosphere-Ocean System

Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

PDF file
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14B.6

Dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and implications for tropical cyclones

Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14B.7

Exploring Influence of Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Cyclones on Warm Season Rainfall over Central US

Amita V. Mehta, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and E. A. Smith

Session 14C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Special Observations and Data

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:15 PM

14C.1

Impact of Assimilating Environmental Satellite Observations on Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Analyses and Forecasts

Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, B. Kuo, C. Snyder, and Y. Chen

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

14C.2

Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. Hendricks, T. Li, and X. Ge

1:45 PM

14C.3

A Tropical Cyclone Vortex Dynamic-Initialization Methodology Applying In Situ Observations and Experiments Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Henry R. Winterbottom, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14C.4

Evaluation of a vortex relocation scheme and the impact of various synthetic observations on tropical cyclone initialization in an advanced research WRF

Weiyu Ding, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

2:15 PM

14C.5

Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Data for Hurricane Initialization and Prediction in HWRF

Mingjing Tong, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. C. Derber, Q. Liu, S. Lord, W. M. Lapenta, and J. F. Gamache

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14C.6

Generation of synthetic observations and their Impact on COAMPS-TC analysis and forecast

Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi

2:45 PM

14C.7

The Impacts of GPS Radio Occultation Data on Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Ying-Hwa Kuo, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Fang, Y. R. Guo, H. Liu, and Z. Ma

Recorded Presentation

Session 14D

Convection III

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christian Jakob, Monash University

1:15 PM

14D.1

Bi-modal structure and evolution of tropical diabatic heating profiles

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. M. Hagos

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

14D.2

Dissecting diabatic heating profiles during TWP-ICE

Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College station, TX; and S. Xie and S. A. McFarlane

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14D.3

The classification and simulation of precipitating convective regimes over Darwin, Australia

Simon Caine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and C. Jakob, S. T. Siems, P. T. May, and T. Lane

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14D.4

Exploring the diurnal cycle in rainfall using idealized cloud resolving model studies

Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14D.5

What sets the humidity of the tropical stratosphere?

David M. Romps, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and Z. Kuang and P. N. Blossey

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14D.6

Assessing the role of overshooting deep convection on water vapour in the TTL

Muhammad E. Hassim, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane

Recorded Presentation

14D.7

A 2-d modeling approach for studying the formation, maintenance, and decay of Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) cirrus associated with deep convection

Poster Session 2

Posters: Tropical Cyclone Modeling, Convection, Tropical Cyclone Structure, Intraseasonal Variability, T-PARC, TCS-08, Air-Sea Interaction, Convectively Coupled Waves, Tropical Cyclone Observations, Climate Change, Probabilistic Forecasting

Location: Arizona Ballroom 7 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P2.1

The Systematically Merged Atlantic Regional Temperature and Salinity (SMARTS) Climatology

Patrick C. Meyers, Univ. of Maryland, Riverdale Park, MD; and J. K. Brewster and L. K. Shay

P2.2

Convectively coupled waves in a sheared environment

Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han

P2.3

Applying Multi-sensor and ECMWF Analyses to Characterize and Evaluate Cloud, Convection and Radiation Processes in Numerical Models

Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, W. T. Chen, T. L'Ecuyer, Y. C. Wang, W. W. Tung, J. D. Neelin, B. Kahn, E. Fetzer, and R. G. Fovell

P2.4

Vaisala dropsondes: History, status, and applications

Ilkka Ikonen II, Vaisala, Inc., Vantaa, Finland; and N. W. S. Demetriades and R. L. Holle

Handout (889.9 kB)

P2.5

Validation of QuikSCAT wind vectors by dropwindsonde data from DOTSTAR

Kun-Hsuan Chou, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and S. J. Majumdar

P2.6

On sources of dry tropical air in the environment of Atlantic tropical cyclones

Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Boller

P2.7

Recurving eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones

Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Dickinson and L. F. Bosart

P2.8

Monsoon Rainfall Characteristics: Precipitation Types and Associated Environment Regimes observed during SoWMEX/TiMREX

Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Tong

P2.9

Data collected by the University of South Alabama Mesonet during Tropical Storm Fay (2008) and Hurricane Ida (2009)

Sytske Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

P2.10

Large-scale features associated with Arabian Sea cyclonic storms

Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. J. Camargo

P2.11

Analysis of data gathered during NOAA WP-3D penetrations of Hurricanes Felix, Katrina and Ivan during episodes of extreme intensity

Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and J. Parrish, A. B. Damiano, J. Williams, I. T. Sears, and P. Flaherty

Handout (1.2 MB)

P2.12

SEAWINDS IMPROVED OCEAN VECTOR WIND RETRIEVALS IN HURRICANES

Suleiman Odeh Alsweiss, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and P. Laupattarakasem and L. Jones

Handout (524.5 kB)

P2.13

An evaluation of the use of the mean vortex wind as a proxy for the environmental wind

Paul R. Harasti, NRL, Monterey, CA

P2.14

Predecessor Rain Events ahead of recurving tropical cyclones: Using numerical simulations and ensemble forecasts to quantify the rainfall enhancement

Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

P2.15

The evolution of raindrop size distributions within Hurricane Ike (2008)

P2.16

Determining the error characteristics of H*Wind

Steven M. DiNapoli, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

P2.17

Wind Effects on Asphalt Shingles

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and R. Herzog, S. M. Morrison, and J. Green

Handout (1.5 MB)

P2.19

Composite structure of vortical hot towers observed in Hurricane Guillermo (1997)

Kelly C. Smith, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and M. D. Eastin

Handout (1.1 MB)

P2.20

A new parametric tropical cyclone wind-profile model: Testing and verification

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. W. White and H. E. Willoughby

Handout (2.0 MB)

P2.22

Eddy variations in the Western North Pacific South Eddy Zone by Satellite Altimetry Observation for Typhoon Intensification Research

Iam Fei Pun, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and I. I. Lin

P2.23

Developing high spatial resolution daytime cloud climatologies for Africa

Rahama Beida, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas and A. Dominguez

Handout (542.1 kB)

P2.25

An observational study of tropical cyclone landfall processes in the Australian region

Yubin Li, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung and J. C. L. Chan

P2.26

Ocean-atmosphere interaction effects on tropical cyclone inner-core convective bursts

Paula Ann Hennon, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and J. Halverson and C. C. Hennon

P2.28

Air-sea coupling and tropical cyclone prediction in the Australian region

Paul Sandery, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

P2.29

The Impact of Taiwan Topography on the Predictability of Typhoon Morakot's Record-breaking Rainfall: A High-resolution Ensemble Simulation

Xingqin Fang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo

P2.30

Predicting Typhoon Morakot's Catastrophic Rainfall and Flooding With a Cloud-Scale Ensemble System

Yonghui Weng, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, Y. H. Kuo, and J. S. Whitaker

P2.31

The influence of Tropical cyclone structure on storm evolution and its interaction with topography

Kun-Hsuan Chou, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

P2.32

A factor controlling surface wind asymmetries in typhoons revealed by QuikSCAT wind data

P2.33

Validating the ocean model component of coupled hurricane-ocean models

Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis, B. Thomas, J. J. Cione, G. R. Halliwell Jr., E. W. Uhlhorn, H. S. Kim, C. Lozano, E. P. Chassignet, and H. R. Winterbottom

P2.34

Structural analysis of SSM/I and TMI overpasses of tropical cyclones from 1987-2008

Daniel S. Harnos, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt and K. R. Knapp

P2.35

Tropical and subtropical influences on Montreal’s record-breaking rainfall event of 8-9 November 1996

Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and D. A. Durnford

P2.36

Beta-effect on the evolution of tropical cyclone

Juan Fang, Nanjing University, China, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang

P2.37

Extreme winds associated with a collapsing core on the Mobile waterfront during the landfall of Hurricane Katrina

Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. Williams and J. Holmes

Handout (2.4 MB)

P2.38

Effects of Extreme SST Cooling on Hurricane Ophelia (2005) Structure: RAINEX Observation and Coupled Model Simulation

Jie Ming, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and C. Lee

P2.39

Analysis of wind field variations of major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

Christopher M. Hill, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Lau

P2.40

Gravity waves in shear and implications for organized convection

Samuel N. Stechmann, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and A. J. Majda

P2.41

Hurricane Ike Damage Survey

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX

Handout (760.0 kB)

P2.42

Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones from dropsondes

Leon Nguyen, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Thomas, D. Vollaro, and J. Molinari

P2.43

Structural evolution in diabatic heating profiles of the MJO in global reanalysis

Jian Ling, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

P2.44

Determination of the Highest Cloud Top in SAS Scheme and Its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts

Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Pan, S. Lord, B. Lapenta, V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, Y. Kwon, and J. Oconnor

P2.45

Okinawa typhoons, 1954 - 1956

Fred S. Hickernell, University of Arizona, Phoenix, AZ

Handout (482.1 kB)

P2.46

Surface cold pools in the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Hanna (2008)

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and T. Gardner, M. C. Link, and K. C. Smith

P2.47

Miniature supercells observed in an offshore outer rainband of Hurricane Gustav (2008)

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Edwards

P2.48

Case study on validation and interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector as targeted observation guidance of tropical cyclones

Shin-Gan Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and K. H. Chou

P2.49

An Effort to Increase Storm Surge Threat Awareness for the Charleston, SC Area Using a Web-based Visualization Tool and Associated Survey

Frank Alsheimer, NOAA/NWSFO, North Charleston, SC; and R. Bright, B. L. Lindner, J. Johnson, and S. Duke

Handout (280.2 kB)

P2.50

Large-scale scope of damage prediction model for landfalling hurricanes

P2.51

Improved SFMR surface wind measurements in intense rain conditions

Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide; and R. A. Black and B. W. Klotz

P2.52

Evolving boundary layer measurements during hurricanes Gustav and Ike

Jeffrey Scott Zuczek, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. C. Meyers, E. W. Uhlhorn, R. Lumpkin, B. Jaimes, J. K. Brewster, and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

P2.53

NOAA's Vision for a Coordinated Storm Surge Enterprise

Jamie Rhome, NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Feyen and M. Erickson

P2.54

Lightning fatalities in tropical and subtropical regions

Ronald L. Holle, Holle Meteorology & Photography, Oro Valley, AZ

Handout (135.5 kB)

P2.55

Impact of the atmospheric boundary layer on eyewall mesovortices of hurricanes

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and K. Menelaou

P2.56

Characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks over western North Pacific - the case study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

Chung-Chuan Yang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

P2.57

The influence of the island topography on tropical cyclone track deflection and looping motion

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and T. S. Huang

P2.58

An investigation into gradient balance of flight-level tropical cyclone windfields

Michael P.M. Gibbons, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and C. Miller

Handout (1.0 MB)

P2.59

The HWRFX Modeling System: Recent Developments in Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecasting Research in NOAA

S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, T. Quirino, R. Rogers, K. Yeh, F. Marks, and R. Atlas

P2.60

Interannual Changes of Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Wu and W. Zhou

Handout (2.4 MB)

P2.62

An intercomparison of WRF-ARW and JMA-NHM performance in prediction of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea in 2008

S.T. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and T. F. Chan and W. K. Wong

Handout (722.7 kB)

P2.61

Microphysical structures of stratiform clouds associated with the MJO observed during MISMO project

P2.63

Cloud-top-height variability associated with equatorial Kelvin waves in the tropical tropopause layer

Junko Suzuki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Fujiwara, A. Hamada, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka

P2.64

The large-scale response of tropical atmosphere to latent heating estimated from the TRMM PR

Shoichi Shige, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

P2.65

The orographic effects of Reunion Island on tropical cyclone tracks

David Barbary, Météo-France/LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and Y. L. Lin

Handout (734.4 kB)

P2.66

Statistical assessment of tropical cloud-system resolving model simulations using a cell-tracking algorithm

Simon Caine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and T. P. Lane, P. T. May, J. Pinto, C. Jakob, S. T. Siems, and M. J. Manton

P2.67

Modelling the transient response of the Dines anemometer in tropical cyclone winds

Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

Handout (2.6 MB)

P2.68

PBL triggering mechanism of convective rainfall viewed from Helicity during TC landfall

Leiming Ma, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China

P2.69

Aggregated Convection and the Regulation of Tropical Climate

Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Emanuel

Handout (484.7 kB)

P2.70

Constructing a 13-year (1996-2008) high resolution GPS dropsonde database for hurricane research

Jeffrey Halverson, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and J. Wang, K. Young, B. Arensdorf, and M. Black

P2.71

The effect of marine cold-air outbreaks on tropical cyclone potential intensity in the Gulf of Mexico

Rebecca Hunniford, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. A. Clayson and A. S. Bogdanoff

P2.72

An Analysis of Recent Dynamical Model Guidance for Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones Near the Coast of Mexico

Todd B. Kimberlain, DOC, Miami, FL, FL; and D. P. Brown

P2.73

A Re-analysis of the 1943 Atlantic Hurricane Season - The First Flight into a Hurricane

Cristina Carrasco, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. W. Landsea

P2.74

Evaluating boundary-layer based mass flux closure using cloud resolving model simulations of deep convection

P2.75

Tropical cyclone lightning characteristics as revealed by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)

Sergio Abarca, NPS, CA; and K. L. Corbosiero and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

P2.76

Predictable structures in idealized steady state hurricanes

Bonnie R. Brown, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

P2.77

Convective quasi-equilibrium revisited, part I: theory

David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs

P2.78

Investigating the relationship between tropical precipitation and water vapor in a cloud resolving model

Satomi Sugaya, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. L. Sessions and D. J. Raymond

P2.79

Impact of microphysical assumptions on the intensity and the structure of simulated hurricanes: Can satellite observations help determine the optimal set of microphysical assumptions?

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Chao, A. Chau, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, J. Martin, W. L. Poulsen, E. Rodriguez, B. W. Stiles, S. Tanelli, F. J. Turk, D. G. Vane, and Q. A. Vu

P2.80

Changes in the seasonality of tropical precipitation in response to greenhouse gases

P2.81

The influence of large-scale westerly winds on Madden-Julian Oscillations

Lei Zhou, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Murtugudde, M. Jochum, and R. Neale

P2.82

The effect of ensemble-transform SST perturbations on tropical-cyclone track forecasts in a medium-range global NWP forecast ensemble

Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Goerss, and M. Flatau

P2.83

Thermodynamics of Madden Julian Oscillation in a regional model with constrained moistening

Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung and J. Dudhia

P2.84

Limit of Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation as a Stochastically-Driven Chaotic Oscillator

Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

P2.85

Convective quasi-equilibrium revisited, part II: cloud resolving model simulations

Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

P2.86

The evolution of tropical storm Gabrielle (2001)

Julie Kelly, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes and K. Dolling

P2.87

Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: The Impact of the Dynamical Core

Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and K. A. Reed

P2.88

Sensitivity of El Niño – Southern Oscillation to Madden Julian Oscillation

Atul Kapur, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

P2.89

The impact of trade surges on the Madden–Julian Oscillation under different ENSO conditions

Ayako Seiki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, K. Yoneyama, and R. Shirooka

P2.90

Dry air layers observed over the central equatorial Indian Ocean

Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yasunaga and M. Katsumata

P2.91

Statistical comparison of scales and spatial distributions of convection in observational data and simulated hurricanes

Sam Trahan, NOAA/NCEP/EMC (UCAR), Camp Springs, MD; and L. C. Sparling, V. Tallapragada, S. A. Braun, and J. Halverson

P2.92

Changes of tropical rain and associated Precipitation efficiency in tropical oceans in response to climate warming

P2.93

Intense Orographic Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Talim (2005) in China

P2.94

The Global 3-Dimensional Structure of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

Scott Stuckman, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and M. Davis

P2.95

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Scott Stuckman, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin

P2.96

A simple coastline storm surge model based on pre-run SLOSH outputs

Liming Xu, FM Global, Norwood, MA

Handout (180.5 kB)

P2.97

The Global 3-Dimensional Structure of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Erik Fraza, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and S. Melaragno

P2.98

Tropical orographic rainfall regimes according to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Kimberly Reed, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

P2.99

Convectively coupled gravity waves in the tropics: Why do most waves travel westward?

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

P2.100

Drag and enthalpy coefficients at major hurricane wind speeds

Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and K. Emanuel

P2.101

Improved Representations of Ice Cloud Microphysics for Hurricane Models

Greg M. McFarquhar, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Dooley, M. Freer, A. J. Heymsfield, P. Lawson, and A. Bansemer

P2.102

The impact of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on the climatology of the North American Southwest region

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and E. A. Ritchie

Handout (307.1 kB)

P2.103

A fine-resolution, multiple-nested, WRF simulation of hurricane Gustav (2008)

P2.104

Tropical cyclone flow structure in the presence of elevated terrain

Brian J. Billings, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Handout (1.3 MB)

P2.105

Dominant intraseasonal variability modes over the eastern Pacific ITCZ and their representation in climate models

Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA & JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser

P2.106

Impact of organized intraseasonal convective perturbations on the tropical circulation

P2.107

EnKF Data Assimilation of dual-Doppler radar data from hurricane Guillermo

Humberto C. Godinez, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and A. O. Fierro and J. Reisner

P2.108

OSSE experiments testing new data platforms for predicting tropical cyclones with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

P2.109

Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interactions on rainfall over the South China Sea during monsoon westerly wind bursts

Myung-Sook Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. H. Ho and J. Kim

P2.110

Retrieval of hurricane turbulence parameters using airborne Doppler radar measurements

Sylvie Lorsolo, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, F. Marks, and P. Dodge

Handout (298.5 kB)

P2.111

The Fidelity of Tropical Cyclone Representation in Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets

Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

PDF file

P2.112

Moist Static Energy budget for Madden-Julian Oscillation like disturbances in Super-Parameterized CAM on an aquaplanet

Joseph Allan Andersen, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

P2.113

Cloud resolving simulations of an idealized intertropical convergence zone

P2.114

Kinematic and microphysical aspects of mesovortices in Hurricane Ike (2008)

Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

P2.115

A unified GPS dropsonde quality assurance and visualization software system

Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Martin

P2.116

Developmental Testbed Center support of the Hurricane WRF for community use

P2.117

South Pacific Convergence Zone: A conduit for energy transport from the tropics to higher latitudes?

Matthew J. Widlansky, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia; and P. J. Webster and C. D. Hoyos

P2.118

A hierarchy of synthetic vortex initialization methods for tropical cyclones

Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, D. Nolan, and D. P. Stern

P2.119

An Integrated Modeling and Data Analysis Approach to Understanding Louisiana's Wetland Resilience to Hurricane Landfall

Pat Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau, J. Chen, A. Chawla, S. Shean, K. Hu, H. L. Tolman, R. R. Twilley, C. M. Hill, and J. E. Cable

P2.120

Sensitivity of the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone to small perturbations in initial input fields

R. J. Maliawco, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar and B. F. Jewett

P2.121

Tropical cyclone energy and power dissipation as a predictor of storm surge using ADCIRC

Angela Fritz, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry

P2.122

Vortical evolution of deep convection in idealized tropical disturbance environments

Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and P. D. Reasor

P2.124

Evaluation of the GFDL 25km resolution Global Atmospheric Model for tropical cyclone prediction

Jeffrey S. Gall, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. Ginis, S. J. Lin, and T. Marchok

P2.125

Description of HWRF Modeling System graphics and statistics for use as a diagnostic tool

Janna O'Connor, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC -SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, H. Y. Chuang, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord

P2.126

Hurricane Isabel (2003) boundary layer characteristics and patterns using the Richardson number

Aaron Paget, U.S. Coast Guard Academy, New London, CT; and P. H. Ruscher

P2.127

Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

F. Joseph Turk, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Chao, Z. Haddad, S. Veleva, B. W. Knosp, B. H. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, W. L. Poulsen, S. Tanelli, D. G. Vane, Q. A. Vu, H. M. Goodman, R. J. Blakeslee, H. Conover, J. M. Hall, Y. M. He, and K. Regner

Handout (464.6 kB)

P2.128

Simulation of historical hurricane events using 20th Century Reanalysis

Robert E. Hart, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

P2.129

Mesoscale gravity wave - convection coupling

Todd P. Lane, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and F. Zhang

P2.130

Characterization of momentum transport associated with organized moist convection and gravity waves

Todd P. Lane, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and M. W. Moncrieff

P2.131

Radar-observed eyewall tilt and three-dimensional winds of Hurricane Isabel (2003)

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin

P2.132

What's New with the Online Textbook for Tropical Meteorology?

Arlene Laing, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Evans and M. Pope

Handout (289.6 kB)

P2.133

The 8 May 2009 "super derecho": A land-hurricane?

P2.134

Observed dispersion relation of mixed Rossby gravity waves and 17-day tropical instability waves in the Pacific Ocean

Toshiaki Shinoda, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS

P2.135

The Generation, Maintenance and Propagation of the Pre-Helene African Easterly Wave and Mesoscale Convective System Over Africa: A Numerical Study and Analysis of the Environment

James Spinks, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and G. Tang

P2.136

How well do coupled global climate models simulate convectively coupled equatorial waves?

Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and P. T. Haertel and G. N. Kiladis

P2.137

The community Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF): System description, forecast skill and Developmental Testbed Center support

Shaowu Bao, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, V. Tallapragada, N. Surgi, Y. C. Kwon, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, C. Harrop, L. Carson, D. Stark, S. Trahan, B. Lapenta, S. Koch, and B. Kuo

Handout (82.2 kB)

P2.138

Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Coastal WSR-88D Radar Data and Forecasting for Hurricane Ike (2008)

Jili Dong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Handout (1011.5 kB)

P2.139

A statistical method for modeling tropical cyclone activity

Mary M. Louie, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and G. Ljung

P2.140

Sensitivity of a parametric hurricane model to different wind profiles

Ioana M. Dima, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and T. Doggett and P. Dailey

P2.141

The role of the asymmetric mode in a turbulent regime

Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. M. Reisner

Handout (1.7 MB)

P2.142

Numerical Simulations of the Formation of Hurricane Fred (2009)

P2.143

Multidecadal oscillations in tropical ocean and land temperatures

Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia; and P. Webster, H. R. Chang, and J. A. Curry

P2.144

Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Ike via Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Radial Velocity Observations using the ARPS 3DVAR

Ningzhu Du, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

P2.145

Tropical thick anvil

Wei Li, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Schumacher

P2.146

A STUDY OF OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC INTERACTIONS AND HURRICANE PREDICTIVE INDEX (HPI) ASSOCIATED WITH LAND FALLING HURRICANE CHARLEY

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and D. Lu

P2.147

NASA Goddard GES DISC Data Services for Supporting Hurricane Research and YOTC

Zhong Liu, George Mason University/CSISS, Fairfax, VA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Leptoukh, D. Ostrenga, and D. E. Waliser

P2.148

Numerical weather prediction and tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Caribbean using MM5 and ARPS. Case studies of hurricane Dean (2007), Omar (2008) and Paloma (2008)

Daniel Martinez, Cuban Meteorological Service, Cuba; and I. Mitrani, I. Borrajero, E. M. Hicks, and C. A. Pontikis

Handout (1.5 MB)

P2.149

Observed variability of the East Pacific ITCZ

Caroline L. Bain, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir, P. Smyth, and H. Stern

P2.151

Wind data collected by a fixed-wing aircraft in the vicinity of a typhoon over the south China coastal waters

Handout (728.8 kB)

P2.152

Neap-spring tidal patterns in Atlantic tropical cyclones

Peter H. Yaukey, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA

Handout (279.5 kB)

P2.153

An observatinal and numerical study of the boundary layer processes during the intensification of Hurricane Bill (2009)

Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Lorsolo, R. Rogers, E. Uhlhorn, J. J. Cione, J. Dunion, J. Kaplan, K. Yeh, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Quirino, J. Cangialosi, and F. Marks

Handout (1.4 MB)

P2.151

Predictability and dynamics of a vertically-sheared tropical storm

Thomas S. Hinson, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, Y. Weng, J. Wei, and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

P2.150

Short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting in tropical watersheds

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Arizona Ballroom 7 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Session

Special Session on TY Morakot: Large-scale and Mesoscale characteristics followed by a discussion on the scientific, social, and political impacts of the typhoon-related disaster.

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: C.-C. Wu, National Taiwan Univ.

8:00 PM

.1

A diagnosis of the extreme rainfall associated with the typhoon Morakot in southern Taiwan: Roles of submonthly disturbance and 40-50-day ISO

H. H. Hsu, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Hong and M. Y. Lee

Recorded Presentation

8:15 PM

.2

Improved Goddard Microphysics for simulating Typhoon Morakot 2009

Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Shi, P. L. Lin, and J. Y. Chen

Presentation PDF (974.3 kB)

Session 15A

Tropical Climatology and Climate Change I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

8:00 AM

15A.1

Response of idealized Walker circulations and zonal surface temperature gradients to changes in longwave radiation

Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University and GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15A.2

Climatology of cloud properties and radiative heating profiles at tropical ACRF sites

Sally McFarlane, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and J. M. Comstock, L. Riihimaki, and J. Flaherty

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15A.3

The impact of future climate change on TC intensity and structure: A downscaling study

Kevin A. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

15A.4

The association of outgoing radiation with variations of precipitation – implications for global warming

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1001.2 kB)

9:00 AM

15A.5

Model projected impact of Anthropogenic warming on late 21st century intense Atlantic hurricane activity

Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. R. Knutson, R. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15A.6

The Global Warming Events in the Past 60 years

Michael Davis, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and S. Stuckman

9:30 AM

15A.7

Atlantic hurricanes and climate change: Projection of a peak month in a future record hurricane season

Megan S. Gentry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (177.8 kB)

Session 15B

Convectively Coupled Waves I

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo

8:00 AM

15B.1

On the relationship between convective activity and easterly waves over Tropical North Africa: a weather state perspective

Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A & T State University, New York, NC; and W. B. Rossow

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15B.2

An observational study of transient - mean flow interactions over West Africa

Nicholas M. J. Hall, Univ. of Toulouse, Toulouse, France

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15B.3

Intermittent african easterly waves in a simple GCM

Stephanie Leroux, NOAA, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

15B.4

Interactions between the ITCZ and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Juliana Dias, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and O. Pauluis

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15B.5

Tropical cyclogenesis within a Kelvin wave

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (685.4 kB)

9:15 AM

15B.6

Extratropical forcing of convectively coupled equatorial wave activity

George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Biello and K. H. Straub

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15B.7

The excitation of equatorial Kelvin waves by extratropical Rossby Waves

Joseph A. Biello, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

Session 15C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: High-Resolution Modeling II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Shuyi Chen, Univ. of Washington

8:00 AM

15C.1

The overland reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007): physical and dynamical characteristics

Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

8:15 AM

15C.2

Influences of the diurnal cycle and the low-level jet on the inland reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007)

Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Evans and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15C.3

On the rapid intensification of hurricane Wilma (2005)

Hua Chen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

8:45 AM

15C.4

Evaluation of the Surface Wind Field in a High-Resolution Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Wilma (2005) by Comparison to In Situ Wind Measurements

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, M. D. Powell, and F. J. Masters

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15C.5

Improving regional high resolution hurricane forecasts through data assimilation and diagnostic verification with satellite observations

Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, F. D. Marks Jr., S. Gopalakrishnan, S. D. Aberson, and M. van Lier-Walqui

9:15 AM

15C.6

Analysis of NRL COAMPS simulated boundary layer of Hurricane Isabel (2003)

Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, P. Black, and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15C.7

Analysis of the intensity, structure and precipitation in high-resolution numerical simulations of Typhoon Morakot

Jonty D. Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and L. M. Leslie

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (542.6 kB)

Session 15D

Probabilistic Forecasting

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS

8:00 AM

15D.1

Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data

Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Matsueda

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

8:15 AM

15D.2

Verification of the National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilities and Future Plans

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. Knabb, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (609.1 kB)

8:30 AM

15D.3

A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model ensemble

Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. Bowyer and R. Knabb

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (359.4 kB)

8:45 AM

15D.4

Storm surge probability forecasts for Hurricane Ike

Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome and A. A. Taylor

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15D.5

On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. M. Finocchio, J. S. Goerss, and J. Hansen

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15D.6

Understanding probabilistic forecasting and verification in tropical cyclones

Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

9:30 AM

15D.7

Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (661.5 kB)

Coffee Break

Location: JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort

Session 16A

Tropical Climatology and Climate Change II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL

10:15 AM

16A.1

States of Tropical Convection and their Relationship to SST Variability

Christian Jakob, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria, Australia; and M. S. Singh and C. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

16A.2

An objective climatology of tropical plumes

Luise Froehlich, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and P. Knippertz and A. H. Fink

10:45 AM

16A.3

Historical contribution of African dust outbreaks to northern tropical Atlantic temperatures

Amato Evan, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. Mukhopadhyay

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16A.4

Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol in the tropics and its relationship with the hydrological cycle

Manuel D. Zuluaga, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry

11:15 AM

16A.5

The ITCZ, easterly wave generation, equatorial westerlies: A common solution for some fundamental questions in the tropics

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16A.6

The Neutral Phases of ENSO: Are They Really Neutral?

Scott Melaragno, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and E. Fraza

11:45 AM

16A.7

Climate mechanisms responsible for the dramatic decline in global tropical cyclone activity

Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University & Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey, Tallahassee, FL

Session 16B

Convectively Coupled Waves II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 2-5 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: George N. Kiladis, ESRL

10:15 AM

16B.1

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the basic state

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Riley, G. N. Kiladis, and B. Mapes

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

16B.2

A simple dynamical model with features of convective momentum transport

Andrew J. Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

16B.3

Equatorially trapped waves in a background meridional shear

Maryam Namazi, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

11:00 AM

16B.4

Convectively coupled gravity waves and moisture modes with top and bottom heavy vertical heating profiles

Zeljka Fuchs, University of Split, Split, Croatia; and D. Raymond and S. Gjorgjievska

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

16B.5

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves and moisture modes in 3-D simulations

Saska Gjorgjievska, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs and D. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16B.6

Interaction between the moist Kelvin wave and WIG waves observed during MISMO field experiment (2006)

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and Y. N. Takayabu

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16B.7

Model study of intermediate-scale tropical inertia gravity waves and comparison to TWP-ICE campaign observations

Stephanie Evan, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Alexander and J. Dudhia

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

Session 16C

Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Structure and Intensity II

Location: Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert G. Fovell, Univ. of California

10:15 AM

16C.1

Re-analysis/prediction of Typhoon Vera (1959) Project: ReVera -Isewan Typhoon like a Katrina hitting Japan 50 years ago-

Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa, H. Kamahori, E. Shindo, M. Hara, T. Kawabata, M. Kunii, and N. Kohno

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (276.8 kB)

10:30 AM

16C.2

Idealized tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models: sensitivity to convective parameterizations

Kevin A. Reed, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

16C.3

The impact of lightning data assimilation on WRF simulations of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)

Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and A. T. Pessi and S. Businger

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16C.4a

Comparison of secondary eyewall and principal rainband in Hurricane Rita (2005) as observed in RAINEX

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

11:15 AM

16C.5

On the evolution of unstable large-Rossby-number vortices in shear

David Ross Ryglicki, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16C.6

Assimilation of GBVTD-derived Winds from Single-Doppler Radar for the Short-term Forecasting of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) at Landfall

Kun Zhao, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and W. C. Lee

11:45 AM

16C.7

Sensitivity of hurricane tilt evolution to outer-core profile

Paul D. Reasor, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 16D

Tropical Cyclone Lightning: Observation and Intensity Change

Location: Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)

Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS

10:15 AM

16D.1

Evolution of convective events as indicated by total lightning within three major hurricanes during periods of rapid intensification

Alexandre Olivier Fierro, LANL, Los ALamos, NM; and X. Shao, J. Reisner, T. D. Hamlin, and J. D. Harlin

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

16D.2

Validation of Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over the continental United States

Nicholas W. S. Demetriades, Vaisala, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Murphy and J. A. Cramer

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (743.2 kB)

10:45 AM

16D.3

Eyewall lightning outbreaks and tropical cyclone intensity change

Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Knabb, N. W. S. Demetriades, and R. L. Holle

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (495.7 kB)

11:00 AM

16D.4

Assessment of synoptic and microphysical parameters related to lightning in tropical cyclones and storm intensification

Marcus D. Austin, NOAA, Brandon, FL; and H. Fuelberg

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

16D.5

The role of convection in determining tropical cyclone genesis in the eastern North Pacific

Lesley A. Leary, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (307.1 kB)

11:30 AM

16D.6

Polarity and energetics of inner core lightning in three intense North Atlantic hurricanes

Jeremy N. Thomas, DigiPen Institute of Technology, Redmond, WA; and N. N. Solorzano, S. A. Cummer, and R. H. Holzworth

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16D.7

Investigating intensity change in Cyclone Nargis using lightning activity and environmental data

Natalia N. Solorzano, DigiPen Institute of Technology, Redmond, WA; and J. N. Thomas, R. H. Holzworth, and C. J. Rodger

Recorded Presentation

Conference Adjourns

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