A STUDY OF OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC INTERACTIONS AND HURRICANE PREDICTIVE INDEX (HPI) ASSOCIATED WITH LAND FALLING HURRICANE CHARLEY

Previous studies by Reddy et.al., (1998, 2003) have indicated a strong Ocean-Atmospheric coupling during the development of tropical cyclone/hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico. We extend these investigations to the hurricane Charley, which developed over the Caribbean and made land fall over the west coast of Florida during August 9-14, 2004. NOAA GOES satellite, NDBC Buoy and NHC dropsonde data for sea surface temperature and meteorological variables including air temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure were used for computations. A Hurricane Predictive Index (HPI) has been developed for land falling hurricane forecast of Charley over the Gulf of Mexico. HPI computes air-sea interface over the marine boundary, pressure tendency, intensity change and stability using the satellite and buoy data. A positive index indicates the weakening of the system and a negative index indicates developing the system into hurricane activity. The study suggested strong heat flux before and during the formation of the hurricane with an evidence of 2-5 day oscillations in heat flux. These findings are in conformity with the previous studies. The HPI indicated a strong negative index during the development of hurricane Charley.