Session 15D Probabilistic Forecasting

Friday, 14 May 2010: 8:00 AM-9:45 AM
Tucson Salon A-C (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)
Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, STAR/CoRP/RAMMB, Ft. Collins, CO

Papers:
8:00 AM
15D.1
Genesis potential estimation of high-impact weather by TIGGE ensemble data
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Matsueda
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

8:15 AM
15D.2
Verification of the National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone Intensity Probabilities and Future Plans
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. Knabb, and M. DeMaria
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (609.1 kB)

8:30 AM
15D.3
A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model ensemble
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. Bowyer and R. Knabb
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (359.4 kB)

8:45 AM
15D.4
Storm surge probability forecasts for Hurricane Ike
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome and A. A. Taylor
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
15D.5
On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. M. Finocchio, J. S. Goerss, and J. Hansen
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
15D.6
Understanding probabilistic forecasting and verification in tropical cyclones
Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

9:30 AM
15D.7
Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (661.5 kB)

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