Investigating intensity change in Cyclone Nargis using lightning activity and environmental data

Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Myanmar on 2 May 2008 causing widespread destruction. Nargis was likely one of the deadliest named storms ever to occur with more than 100,000 fatalities. In the present study, we combine WWLLN (World Wide Lightning Location Network; http://wwlln.net), TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite-borne radar data, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and pressure and wind data to analyze intensity changes during the entire lifespan of Nargis. The motivation for our research is twofold: (1) previous studies have associated the episodic lightning activity in the inner core of tropical cyclones with intensity change, and (2) the forecasts concerning the intensification of Nargis relied on satellite imagery, which showed to be insufficient. The main objective is to investigate if lightning data, associated with the analysis of environmental parameters, could prove useful for intensification forecasting of Nargis. Our preliminary results show increased lightning activity during intensification periods, as well as the radially distributed lightning pattern that is commonly detected in tropical cyclones. The increased lightning activity took place 36 to 40 hours before the main episode of intensification change, which motivates further investigation of the environmental factors that accompanied the intensity changes.