Tropical cyclone return periods on the U.S. Atlantic coast: comparison of methods

We estimate return-periods as a function of intensity for land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts using National Hurricane Center HURDAT Best-Track data, 1950-2008. Two statistical techniques are compared and contrasted: (1) extreme value theory using generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) based solely on data at landfall; and (2) a stochastic model of the complete life-cycle of TCs based on basin-wide TC data. The stochastic TC model brings many more data to bear on landfall estimation than the GPD analysis. However, the added complexity of the TC model increases the possibility of bias. While the two analyses display broad-brush agreement, there are differences in detail, which we present and discuss.