Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclones in the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Experiments

NCAR began an effort on nested regional climate simulations using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model (ARW) in 2006. During this time a number of dynamical downscaling simulations have been performed. The Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) was first set up in a tropical channel configuration, and later in a standard nested domain configuration. Data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) were used as initial and boundary conditions to drive the NRCM model.

The potential for tropical cyclone genesis can be represented by empirical functions of large-scale environmental parameters, which play a role in the development of tropical cyclones. This paper examines the ability of the NRCM model as well as the driving models to produce a tropical genesis potential index that reproduce previous observed patterns. The GP indices from the various models are also evaluated as to their use as predictors for tropical cyclone genesis.