OSSE experiments testing new data platforms for predicting tropical cyclones with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Despite recent improvements in forecasts, tropical cyclones are still difficult to predict due to strong error growth in the presence of moist convection and error in the specification of the initial hurricane vortex. Sophisticated data assimilation methods are now being tested to initialize tropical cyclones, and observations are increasing in number, yet it remains unclear which observations are most necessary and what the maximum benefit will be from such observations.

This research uses observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to investigate the impact of the HIWRAP radar, a conically scanning Doppler radar that will fly aboard Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in 2010. We investigate the potential benefits of this additional data source and how such benefits compare to those of other data sources, in particular P3 onboard Doppler radar.